Refine Actions If Needed: Adaptive Action Chunk Refinement for Robot Manipulation

Learning chunk-based visuomotor policies for long-horizon robot manipulation remains challenging. Recent action-chunking methods have shown promising performance by predicting temporally extended action sequences. However, their failures are often dominated by prediction errors at a small number of critical timesteps rather than uniformly poor predictions across the entire action chunk, making uniform refinement inefficient and insufficiently targeted. To address this bottleneck, we propose Uncertainty-Guided Refinement (UGR), a sparse refinement framework for chunk-based visuomotor policies. Specifically, UGR follows a coarse-to-refine design: it first predicts a full action chunk, estimates per-step temporal uncertainty from the coarse hidden states, and applies residual correction only to the most uncertain timesteps selected by a binary mask. The uncertainty branch is decoupled from the coarse action predictor, enabling clean attribution of the refinement gains to uncertainty-guided correction rather than additional predictor capacity. Extensive experiments on five dual-arm manipulation tasks from the RoboTwin benchmark show that UGR achieves the best success rate on four tasks, improves over the ACT baseline by up to 13% absolute, and outperforms both full-chunk and position-agnostic block refinement in ablation studies.

Action-chunking policies predict multi-step control sequences, but a fundamental question remains: how much of a predicted action chunk should be committed before replanning? Existing systems typically execute a fixed-length prefix, implicitly assuming that the same execution horizon remains trustworthy across states. Some adaptive methods estimate this horizon from the similarity or stability of predicted actions. However, different actions may lead to the same successful outcome, whereas similar actions can produce different futures, suggesting that commitment should be determined by agreement among imagined futures rather than by similarity in action space. To this end, we propose Consequence-Aware Adaptive Action Chunking (CA$^3$C), an inference-time framework built on a simple principle: commit while imagined futures agree, and replan when they diverge. Without modifying or retraining the base policy, CA$^3$C uses an action-conditioned world model to imagine the future consequences of multiple candidate action chunks under the same sampling noise. Using these imagined consequences, we formulate execution-horizon estimation as a Bayesian change-point inference problem and select the execution candidate through future consensus. Across multiple simulation benchmarks and real-world robot manipulation tasks, CA$^3$C consistently improves diverse action-chunking policies, achieving up to a 71.8% relative reduction in failure rate over the corresponding base policies.

Recent vision-language-action and diffusion-based robot policies often use action chunking, where each policy query predicts a sequence of future actions and the robot executes an open-loop prefix before re-querying. While this interface improves local motion continuity, deployment still requires choosing the execution horizon: how much of each predicted chunk should be executed before acquiring a new observation. However, our experiments show that success is strongly task-dependent and non-monotonic with respect to the execution horizon, making a single constant horizon an unreliable deployment rule. We propose PACE (Phase-Aware Chunk Execution), a training-free test-time execution method that selects the execution horizon online from the predicted chunk itself. PACE exploits the phase-dependent kinematic structure of manipulation trajectories by identifying low-speed transition points in the predicted speed profile and using them as candidate replanning boundaries. Because PACE uses only the predicted action chunk, it is plug-and-play and requires no retraining or access to policy internals. We validate PACE through large-scale evaluations in both simulation and real-robot settings. On 50 RoboTwin2.0 tasks, PACE raises the average success rate from 57.8% to 64.2%. In real-robot experiments on bimanual ALOHA and single-arm Franka platforms, PACE improves the average task score from 60.7 to 77.7 and the average success rate from 50.7% to 70.4%. Ablations and rollout-level analyses show that PACE adapts execution horizons across manipulation phases, shortening near transitions while preserving longer execution during coherent motion.