When Occupation-derived Skills Don't Help: On the Limits of Skill-Augmented Career Path Prediction

Career paths encode decades of skill acquisition, role transitions, and educational investment, and understanding them at scale underpins workforce planning, labor market policy, and job recommendation. Resumes are a rich source of information about career paths: they contain detailed descriptions of work experience, education, and skills. Yet their unstructured, heterogeneous, and multilingual nature has long prevented large-scale systematic analysis. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), it is now possible to source rich career trajectory data containing temporal and educational signals from unstructured resumes, enabling new opportunities for career-path recommendation. Exploiting this opportunity, we present STEP (Sequential Trajectory of Employment Prediction), a novel career-path recommendation system that leverages temporal and educational signals to predict the next job in a career trajectory. STEP integrates a time-decay Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) cell to model temporal dynamics, Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) conditioned on educational attainment, and attention-based sequence pooling to select relevant features for next job prediction. To improve internal occupation representation for STEP, we introduce ROUTE, a two-stage contrastive procedure that first adapts a multilingual encoder to the career domain via unsupervised denoising autoencoding, then performs supervised contrastive fine-tuning with guided negative selection. We evaluate STEP on four datasets of career trajectories, including an improved version of our publicly available JobHop dataset, and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in next job prediction. The dataset and code are publicly released to support reproducible career-trajectory research.

Skill extraction and recommendation systems have been studied from recruiter, applicant, and education perspectives. While AI applications in job advertisements have received broad attention, deficiencies in the instructed skills side remain a challenge. In this work, we address the scarcity of publicly available datasets by releasing both manually annotated and synthetic datasets of skills from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy and university course pairs and publishing corresponding annotation guidelines. Specifically, we match graduate-level university courses with skills from the Systems Analysts and Management and Organization Analyst ESCO occupation groups at two granularities: course title with a skill, and course sentence with a skill. We train language models on this dataset to serve as a baseline for retrieval and recommendation systems for course-to-skill and skill-to-course matching. We evaluate the models on a portion of the annotated data. Our BERT model achieves 87% F1-score, showing that course and skill matching is a feasible task.

Understanding human skill is important for AI systems that collaborate with, coach, or assist people. Unlike typical latent variable estimation problems which rely on single observations, skill is a persistent, compositional, and behaviorally grounded construct that must be inferred from patterns over time. We introduce Skill Abstraction with Interpretable Latents (SAIL), a method for modeling human skill as an interpretable, multi-dimensional construct inferred from naturalistic behavior. Our approach produces a skill embedding that is robust to transient performance fluctuations and learns a transferable representation of human subskills. Furthermore, SAIL supports skill-informed behavior prediction that generalizes across a variety of in-domain contexts. We represent each individual with a persistent skill embedding that controls a blend between expert and novice bases and is trained using counterfactual subskill swaps for disentanglement. This design encourages representations that are both robust to performance variation and structured for interpretability. We demonstrate across racing and baseball that SAIL achieves strong predictive performance and consistently improves behaviorally grounded disentanglement over the evaluated baselines, while also improving downstream AI coaching performance.