Does Compression Imply Generalization? A Minimum Description Length Perspective

Compression is fundamental to intelligence. A model that can represent its training data as a short code has discovered regularities that enable generalization. Large neural networks may learn functions far simpler than their parameter counts suggest, but it is challenging to construct codes that realize this simplicity. Parameter-based methods such as quantization produce code lengths that scale with model size, insensitive to how much information the parameters store. Prequential coding bypasses this issue by compressing the training trajectory, but codes the exact data sequence regardless of how much the model learns, yielding large codes when the data has high entropy. We introduce requential coding, where a teacher model selects training samples drawn from the student's own distribution. The student's code records only these selections, which cost bits only where teacher and student disagree. The resulting code length is independent of parameter count and data entropy, and often orders of magnitude shorter than the prequential counterpart, with an advantage that grows with scale. This compression sheds light on phenomena inaccessible to prior compressors. Holding loss fixed, larger models and ensembles compress to much smaller sizes despite more parameters. Plugged into a PAC-Bayes bound, the requential code yields state-of-the-art generalization guarantees for billion-parameter LLMs, outperforming bounds built on aggressive post-training quantization even granted zero error. The bound tightens with scale in the compute-optimal regime, as models become increasingly compressible relative to dataset size. The same code predicts that models gradually overfit when trained for multiple epochs. It also isolates the learnable information in a dataset from its unpredictable, random content, revealing that lower-entropy text holds far more learnable structure than higher-entropy image data.

Minimum Description Length (MDL) formalizes the principle of Occam's razor by optimizing the total description length: $L(\mathrm{model})+L(\mathrm{data} \ | \ \mathrm{model})$. For sequential prediction, the MDL method repeatedly selects a model with a minimum objective score of the observed prefix for the next step prediction. Classical MDL prediction theory shows that exact optimization of the MDL objective indeed provides a strong compression guarantee that supports reliable prediction. However, practical machine learning usually can only find models by approximately optimizing the objective function. To bridge this gap, this paper addresses the following fundamental question: Under what forms of approximation and regularization does approximate MDL still guarantee reliable sequential prediction? This work offers a principled characterization. We prove that for any approximation with additive slack $C$ of the more general form of the balanced MDL objective: $λ\cdot L(\mathrm{model})+L(\mathrm{data} \ | \ \mathrm{model})$, the cumulative expected squared prediction error is finite for all $λ\ge1$. The case $λ>1$ is proved by an affinity-telescoping argument, while the boundary case $λ=1$ is proved by a likelihood-ratio stopping argument based on exact static MDL bounds. Our results establish that classical MDL regularization remains robust to any fixed additive optimization error. Furthermore, we establish that our characterization of the approximate MDL framework is sharp: When $0<λ<1$, overfits can happen to incur infinite cumulative expected error in the universal class of estimable measures, and hence a strong form of model-complexity regularization is necessary. In addition, model selection may fail in every regularized regime $λ>0$, under multiplicative approximation, and thus, additive approximation is both sufficient and essential.

Despite the increasing prevalence of large language models (LLMs), we still have a limited understanding of how their representational spaces are structured. This limits our ability to interpret how and what they learn or relate them to learning in humans. We argue LLMs are best seen as an instance of lossy compression, where over training they learn by retaining only information in their training data relevant to their objective(s). We show pre-training results in models that are optimally compressed for next-sequence prediction, approaching the Information Bottleneck bound on compression. Across an array of open weights models, each compresses differently, likely due to differences in the data and training recipes used. However even across different families of LLMs the optimality of a model's compression, and the information present in it, can predict downstream performance on across a wide array of benchmarks, letting us directly link representational structure to actionable insights about model performance. In the general case the work presented here offers a unified Information-Theoretic framing for how these models learn that is deployable at scale.