Uncertainty-Aware Budget Allocation for Efficient LLM Tree Search

Test-time scaling has become a dominant paradigm for improving LLM agent reliability, yet current approaches treat compute as an abundant resource, allowing agents to exhaust token and tool budgets on redundant steps or dead-end trajectories. Existing budget-aware methods either require expensive fine-tuning or rely on coarse, trajectory-level heuristics that cannot intervene mid-execution. We propose the Budget-Aware Value Tree (BAVT), a training-free inference-time framework that models multi-hop reasoning as a dynamic search tree guided by step-level value estimation within a single LLM backbone. Another key innovation is a budget-conditioned node selection mechanism that uses the remaining resource ratio as a natural scaling exponent over node values, providing a principled, parameter-free transition from broad exploration to greedy exploitation as the budget depletes. To combat the well-known overconfidence of LLM self-evaluation, BAVT employs a residual value predictor that scores relative progress rather than absolute state quality, enabling reliable pruning of uninformative or redundant tool calls. We further provide a theoretical convergence guarantee, proving that BAVT reaches a terminal answer with probability at least $1-ε$ under an explicit finite budget bound. Extensive evaluations on four multi-hop QA benchmarks across two model families demonstrate that BAVT consistently outperforms parallel sampling baselines. Most notably, BAVT under strict low-budget constraints surpasses baseline performance at $4\times$ the resource allocation, establishing that intelligent budget management fundamentally outperforms brute-force compute scaling.

Neural tree search is a powerful decision-making algorithm widely used in complex domains such as game playing and model-based reinforcement learning. Recent work has applied AlphaZero-style tree search to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) during inference, but we find that this approach suffers from a scaling failure: on GSM8K and Game24, accuracy drops as the search budget increases. In this paper, we present ReSCALE, an adaptation of Gumbel AlphaZero MCTS that replaces Dirichlet noise and PUCT selection with Gumbel sampling and Sequential Halving, restoring monotonic scaling without changes to the model or its training. ReSCALE reaches 58.4% on GSM8K and 85.3% on Game24 at budgets where the baseline degrades. Ablations confirm that Sequential Halving is the primary driver of the improvement.

Sampling multiple responses improves language model reasoning, but uniform compute allocation is inefficient because easy questions are over-sampled while hard questions remain under-explored. We propose Uncertainty-Aware Budget Allocation (UAB), a concave integer optimization framework that reallocates a fixed sampling budget using uncertainty estimated from the initial samples themselves. In Phase-1, every question receives a small fixed number of generations. Their answer disagreement, measured by vote entropy, provides a difficulty signal while these generations contribute to the final vote. In Phase-2, the remaining budget is allocated by a marginal-greedy algorithm that optimally solves a concave coverage-maximization surrogate, concentrating samples on questions whose initial answers disagree. Across five open-weight models (1.5B--27B parameters) and five reasoning benchmarks of varying difficulty, UAB improves average accuracy by $+2.3\%$ over uniform allocation, and achieves gains of up to $+5.5\%$ on individual benchmarks, with the largest gains in low-resource settings. Moreover, UAB meets the target budget exactly and requires no auxiliary model or additional LLM calls. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/manhitv/UAB.