When Does Evidence-Graph Structure Predict Answer Correctness? Label-Free Abstention for Structured Retrieval
Organizations: SmartInfer, Inc.
Abstract
Retrieval systems return scored answers, but a high score does not show that an answer should be trusted. The proposed training-free abstention method applies the boundary cut to the selected evidence in an evidence graph. The signal is the weighted cut between selected and unselected candidates and requires no correctness labels or confidence-model training. On MemoryAgentBench (MAB) FactConsolidation multi-hop, with unresolved queries ranked last for every selector, it raises area under the precision-coverage curve from 0.736 for the best score baseline to 0.785 (+0.049, 95% CI [+0.008, +0.092]); under the native evaluation, where score baselines keep their unresolved values, the gap is +0.108. A zero-cut subset contains 71 of 400 queries at 100% observed precision. In this pipeline, the subset corresponds to structural closure; controlled analyses attribute much of the remaining separation to resolution status, with little benefit from continuous edge weights. Across external benchmarks, usefulness varies with graph construction, edge semantics, and relation; typed structure alone does not ensure useful confidence. A supervised gradient-boosted selector achieves 0.814 versus the boundary cut's 0.785 when the retrieval stack matches. These findings provide empirical guidance for using available evidence graphs for lightweight, auditable post-retrieval abstention without additional model inference.
Figures & tables
| Regime | Base Accuracy | Coherence AUPCC | Status-matched smoothed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-hop | 0.420–0.700 | 0.785 | 0.736 | +0.049 |
| Single-hop | 0.900–0.960 | 0.975 | — | — |
| Split | Accuracy | Coherence | Smoothed | Raw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6k | 0.910 | 0.980 | 0.928 | 0.914 | 0.718 |
| 32k | 0.900 | 0.936 | 0.951 | 0.950 | 0.813 |
| 64k | 0.960 | 0.977 | 0.940 | 0.928 | 0.875 |
| 262k | 0.900 | 0.971 | 0.910 | 0.898 | 0.862 |
| All | 0.917 | 0.975 | 0.941 | 0.932 | 0.823 |
| Subset | Size | Precision | Overlap w/ zero-energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-energy ( ) | 71 | 1.000 | — |
| Matched-coverage raw (top 71) | 71 | 0.676 | 14 (Jaccard 0.110) |
| Top 10% raw | 40 | 0.775 | — |
| Top 10% smoothed | 40 | 0.825 | — |
| Scorer | Encoder | Coh. AUPCC | Native smoothed | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen | 128 | 0.785 | 0.677 | +0.108 | |
| Qwen | 128 | 0.775 | 0.690 | +0.085 | |
| MiniLM | 384 | 0.788 | 0.680 | +0.108 |
| AUPCC | Analysis | Relation to 0.785 |
|---|---|---|
| 0.785 | Original end-to-end MAB (pooled 400, d128) | headline |
| 0.782 | Regenerated mechanism audit (400; 70 zero-energy) | different regeneration |
| 0.765 | Graph ablation (cached candidates/path; graph varied) | within-table only |
| 0.765–0.766 | Gamma sweep (separate cached harness; path re-resolved per ) | within-sweep only |
| 0.750 | Edge perturbation (own cached seed/protocol) | perturbation baseline |
| Population / signal | AUPCC |
| Full ( ) | |
| Weighted cut | 0.782 |
| Unweighted cut | 0.783 |
| Resolved non-closure ( ) | |
| Weighted cut | 0.600 |
| Unweighted cut | 0.610 |
| Benchmark | Retrieval / graph | Reproduction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LongMemEval temporal | 5 | 0.100 | session chain, continuous | reproduced |
| LongMemEval semantic | 5 | 0.100 | mutual-kNN(5), continuous | reproduced |
| MetaQA-3hop | 10 | 0.100 | typed answer-relation + type filter | reproduced |
| CoDEx-S | 10 | 0.100 | co-occurrence / typed mask | exploratory |
| LoCoMo | 5 | 0.100 | temporal chain | blocked |
| Variant | Agg. | 6k | 32k | 64k | 262k | Zero-energy precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typed entity–relation | 0.765 | 0.866 | 0.743 | 0.754 | 0.592 | 1.000 |
| Semantic kNN | 0.716 | 0.827 | 0.683 | 0.655 | 0.598 | 0.917 |
| Hybrid ( ) | 0.745 | 0.855 | 0.722 | 0.723 | 0.567 | 0.986 |
| Hybrid ( ) | 0.747 | 0.858 | 0.722 | 0.738 | 0.560 | 0.986 |
| Hybrid ( ) | 0.748 | 0.857 | 0.724 | 0.737 | 0.564 | 0.986 |
| Benchmark / graph | Coherence | Best comparator | Diagnosis |
|---|---|---|---|
| LongMemEval / temporal | 0.736 | 0.887 | temporal adjacency |
| LongMemEval / semantic kNN | 0.682 | 0.890 | generic similarity |
| LoCoMo / temporal | 0.286 | 0.430 | temporal adjacency |
| CoDEx-S / typed entity–relation | 0.373 | 0.543 | heterogeneous, App. L |
| Graph family | Acc | AUROC | AUPCC | ZE prec | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAB typed | 400 | 0.560 | 8.150 | 0.755 | 0.765 | 1.000 |
| MAB semantic kNN | 400 | 0.560 | 2.750 | 0.692 | 0.716 | 0.917 |
| LongMemEval temp. | 500 | 0.740 | 1.010 | 0.488 | 0.736 | — |
| LongMemEval kNN | 500 | 0.750 | 0.510 | 0.414 | 0.682 | — |
| LoCoMo temporal | 1986 | 0.270 | 1.010 | 0.517 | 0.286 | — |
| CoDEx-S co-occ. | 1828 | 0.330 | 0.670 | 0.332 | 0.215 | 0.083 |
| PID | Label | Acc | AUPCC coh | AUPCC raw | ZE prec | ZE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P101 | field of work | 20 | 0.800 | 0.766 | 0.896 | 1.400 | — | 0 |
| P463 | member of | 270 | 0.580 | 0.700 | 0.624 | 52.000 | 0.764 | 89 |
| P1303 | instrument | 71 | 0.560 | 0.577 | 0.719 | 1.470 | 0.600 | 20 |
| P27 | citizenship | 105 | 0.600 | 0.485 | 0.795 | 0.690 | 0.000 | 2 |
| P530 | diplomatic relation | 287 | 0.240 | 0.256 | 0.390 | N/A | 0.244 | 287 |
| P106 | occupation | 593 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.313 | 0.880 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Answer relation | Base acc | AUPCC coh | AUPCC raw | (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in_language | 46 | 0.435 | 0.546 | 0.317 | |
| release_year | 41 | 0.341 | 0.367 | 0.306 | |
| has_genre | 56 | 0.304 | 0.352 | 0.326 | |
| starred_actors | 31 | 0.226 | 0.168 | 0.141 | |
| directed_by | 39 | 0.282 | 0.287 | 0.333 | |
| written_by | 37 | 0.297 | 0.209 | 0.271 |
| Signal | AUPCC | AUROC |
|---|---|---|
| GBT | 0.814 | 0.889 |
| Coherence | 0.785 | 0.807 |
| Smoothed score | 0.677 | 0.645 |
| Raw score | 0.653 | 0.611 |
| LR | 0.648 | 0.620 |
| Score margin | 0.547 | 0.413 |
| Labels (%) | GBT (all) | Coherence (all) | GBT (262k) | Coherence (262k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.613 | 0.785 | 0.430 | 0.661 |
| 5 | 0.665 | 0.785 | 0.539 | 0.661 |
| 10 | 0.751 | 0.785 | 0.631 | 0.661 |
| 20 | 0.790 | 0.785 | 0.660 | 0.661 |
| 50 | 0.786 | 0.785 | 0.660 | 0.661 |
| 100 | 0.814 | 0.785 | 0.656 | 0.661 |
| Train / test | base | minilm | linear |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 0.818 | 0.771 | 0.825 |
| minilm | 0.739 | 0.828 | 0.763 |
| linear | 0.742 | 0.696 | 0.838 |
| Cell | GBT | Coherence | 95% CI | Direction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| base base | 0.818 | 0.785 | 0.033 | [-0.0000, +0.065] | unresolved |
| base minilm | 0.771 | 0.788 | -0.017 | [-0.050, +0.024] | unresolved |
| base linear | 0.825 | 0.775 | 0.050 | [+0.016, +0.087] | positive |
| minilm base | 0.739 | 0.785 | -0.046 | [-0.097, -0.012] | negative |
| minilm minilm | 0.828 | 0.788 | 0.041 | [+0.005, +0.073] | positive |
| minilm linear | 0.763 | 0.775 | -0.012 | [-0.059, +0.029] | unresolved |
| Train / test | base | minilm | linear |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 0.827 | 0.805 | 0.824 |
| minilm | 0.808 | 0.820 | 0.792 |
| linear | 0.808 | 0.771 | 0.831 |
| Method | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 0.660 | — |
| Leaf MCTS | 0.660 | +0.000 |
| Chain MCTS | 0.580 | 0.080 |
| Path reranking | 0.580 | 0.080 |
| Status-matched (primary) | Native | Resolved-only | ||||
| Signal | AUPCC | AUROC | AUPCC | AUROC | AUPCC | AUROC |
| Coherence | 0.782 | 0.810 | 0.782 | 0.810 | 0.822 | 0.635 |
| Raw score | 0.755 | 0.814 | 0.755 | 0.813 | 0.788 | 0.643 |
| Smoothed score | 0.754 | 0.815 | 0.754 | 0.814 | 0.787 | 0.643 |
| Smoothed full-vector margin | 0.666 | 0.729 | 0.593 | 0.559 | 0.675 | 0.479 |
| NQC-local | 0.669 | 0.730 | 0.558 | 0.520 | 0.679 | 0.481 |
Appendix figures & tables17 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Split | Accuracy | Coherence | Smoothed | Raw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6k | 0.700 | 0.861 | 0.740 | 0.730 | 0.670 |
| 32k | 0.560 | 0.767 | 0.621 | 0.599 | 0.554 |
| 64k | 0.590 | 0.771 | 0.762 | 0.736 | 0.672 |
| 262k | 0.420 | 0.661 | 0.495 | 0.468 | 0.355 |
| All | 0.568 | 0.785 | 0.677 | 0.653 | 0.547 |
| Split | Qwen | MiniLM | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6k | 0.861 | 0.855 | Qwen (+0.006) |
| 32k | 0.767 | 0.769 | MiniLM (+0.002) |
| 64k | 0.771 | 0.776 | MiniLM (+0.005) |
| 262k | 0.661 | 0.669 | MiniLM (+0.008) |
| Test scale | Purged | GBT | Coherence | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6k | 21 | 0.859 | 0.861 | -0.001 | [-0.077, +0.067] |
| 32k | 18 | 0.794 | 0.767 | 0.027 | [-0.047, +0.095] |
| 64k | 11 | 0.795 | 0.771 | 0.024 | [-0.057, +0.109] |
| 262k | 2 | 0.673 | 0.661 | 0.012 | [-0.075, +0.094] |
| Feature | Importance |
|---|---|
| Raw score | 0.058 |
| Smoothed score | 0.062 |
| Score margin | 0.139 |
| Second-highest score | 0.050 |
| Score ratio | 0.691 |
| Population | Accuracy | Weighted cut | Unweighted cut | Boundary-weight fraction | Boundary-edge fraction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full | 400 | 0.562 | 0.782 | 0.783 | 0.813 | 0.813 |
| Resolved | 316 | 0.712 | 0.822 | 0.819 | 0.861 | 0.861 |
| Non-closure | 330 | 0.470 | 0.584 | 0.590 | 0.657 | 0.662 |
| Resolved non-closure | 246 | 0.630 | 0.600 | 0.610 | 0.697 | 0.701 |
| Comparison | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted cut - unweighted cut | -0.010 | [-0.027, +0.035] |
| Boundary-weight fraction - weighted cut | 0.097 | [-0.0002, +0.196] |
| Boundary-edge fraction - unweighted cut | 0.090 | [+0.007, +0.201] |
| Boundary-weight fraction - boundary-edge fraction | -0.004 | [-0.024, +0.016] |
| Benchmark / graph | Reproduced vs published | Gate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LongMemEval / temporal | 500 | vs | PASS |
| LongMemEval / semantic | 500 | vs | PASS |
| MetaQA-3hop / typed | 250 | vs | PASS |
| CoDEx-S / co-occurrence | 1828 | vs | FAIL (exploratory) |
| MAB single-hop | — | — | BLOCKED (provenance) |
| LoCoMo | — | — | BLOCKED (provenance) |
| Population | Weighted cut | Unweighted cut | Boundary-weight fraction | Boundary-edge fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LongMemEval temporal | 0.736 | 0.745 | 0.733 | 0.736 |
| LongMemEval semantic | 0.682 | 0.779 | 0.853 | 0.774 |
| MetaQA-3hop | 0.324 | 0.324 | 0.283 | 0.283 |
| Lane | Comparison | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LongMemEval temporal | boundary-edge fraction unweighted cut | -0.009 | [-0.026, +0.015] |
| LongMemEval temporal | boundary-edge fraction weighted cut | 0.001 | [-0.043, +0.044] |
| LongMemEval temporal | boundary-weight fraction boundary-edge fraction | -0.003 | [-0.045, +0.039] |
| LongMemEval semantic | boundary-edge fraction unweighted cut | -0.005 | [-0.017, +0.007] |
| LongMemEval semantic | boundary-edge fraction weighted cut | 0.093 | [+0.041, +0.146] |
| LongMemEval semantic | boundary-weight fraction boundary-edge fraction | 0.078 | [+0.048, +0.111] |
| Signal | Aggregate AUPCC | 262k point estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Coherence | 0.775 | 0.624 |
| Smoothed score | 0.688 | 0.518 |
| Raw score | 0.667 | 0.490 |
| Margin | 0.612 | 0.435 |
| Perturbation | AUPCC | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 0.750 | — |
| Drop 10% edges | 0.716 0.005 | |
| Drop 20% edges | 0.717 0.005 | |
| Drop 30% edges | 0.720 0.002 | |
| Add 10% spurious | 0.743 0.001 | |
| Add 20% spurious | 0.743 0.001 |
| Coherence AUPCC | ZE queries | ZE precision | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.000 | 0.766 | 71 | 1.000 |
| 0.050 | 0.765 | 71 | 1.000 |
| 0.100 | 0.765 | 71 | 1.000 |
| 0.200 | 0.765 | 71 | 1.000 |
| Signal | All | 6k | 32k | 64k | 262k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBT | 0.889 | 0.912 | 0.888 | 0.885 | 0.850 |
| Coherence | 0.807 | 0.753 | 0.793 | 0.792 | 0.845 |
| Smoothed score | 0.645 | 0.586 | 0.605 | 0.732 | 0.617 |
| Raw score | 0.611 | 0.573 | 0.584 | 0.683 | 0.578 |
| LR | 0.620 | 0.586 | 0.592 | 0.655 | 0.605 |
| Score margin | 0.413 | 0.458 | 0.447 | 0.508 | 0.351 |
| Probe 20 | Probe 30 | Probe 50 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family (truth) | Acc | Med | Acc | Med | Acc | Med |
| MAB typed (useful) | 0.860 | 8.140 | 0.920 | 8.580 | 0.950 | 7.530 |
| MAB sem. kNN (useful) | 0.550 | 2.250 | 0.610 | 2.390 | 0.680 | 2.500 |
| LongMemEval temp. (not) | 0.970 | 1.000 | 0.980 | 0.970 | 1.000 | 0.990 |
| LongMemEval kNN (not) | 0.850 | 0.650 | 0.920 | 0.650 | 0.970 | 0.590 |
| LoCoMo temp. (not) | 1.000 | 1.020 | 1.000 | 1.030 | 1.000 | 1.030 |
| Train / test | base | minilm | linear |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 0.891 | 0.841 | 0.857 |
| minilm | 0.761 | 0.909 | 0.753 |
| linear | 0.798 | 0.744 | 0.868 |
| Configuration | Mean | Std | Range | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| base | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.008 | |
| minilm | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.003 | |
| linear | 0.390 | 0.131 | 0.406 |
Selective Inference
Selective inference develops valid statistical conclusions after data-dependent choices such as feature selection, clustering, or adaptive evaluation.
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