VisConf: Quality-Aware Consensus for Best-of-N in Vision-Language Model Reasoning

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is as important as predictive accuracy. Extended reasoning via chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting or reasoning-trained models has become ubiquitous in modern VLM pipelines, yet its effect on UQ reliability remains poorly understood. Our results show that reasoning tends to degrade the quality of many uncertainty estimates, even when it improves task accuracy. We identify implicit answer conditioning as the primary mechanism: as reasoning traces converge on a conclusion before the final answer is generated, token probabilities increasingly reflect consistency with the model's own reasoning trace rather than uncertainty about correctness. In effect, the model becomes overconfident in its answer. In contrast, agreement-based consistency remains robust and often improves under reasoning, making it a practical choice for uncertainty estimation in reasoning-enabled VLMs.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is an important paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). However, directly applying RL to rollout multimodal reasoning can lead to instability, due to the exploitation of language priors, the neglect of visual evidence, and the generation of reasoning traces that are fluent yet not visually grounded. The question arises: Can initially steer the policy toward visually faithful reasoning regime before applying reinforcement learning? To this end, we propose a Faithful Warm-Start (FWS) strategy that first curates samples with explicit vision-language causal relationships from six general VQA benchmarks to construct the FaithfulQA dataset, where each of the image-question pairs gains a certain degree of visual observations, question requirements, commonsense knowledge, domain knowledge, and the final answer. Subsequently, a VLM-based judge is employed to further purify the dataset, ensuring strong causal consistency and visual faithfulness. This warm-start stage equips the model with the capability to understand causally grounded vision-language patterns before subsequent RL optimization under sparse answer-level rewards. Experimental results show that such faithful supervision improves answer accuracy, stabilizes RL training, and reduces visually unsupported reasoning.

A calibrated Vision-Language Model (VLM) can repeatedly self-correct, say "Wait, I should recheck," arrive at the wrong answer, and still report high confidence. We find that this occurs because verbalized confidence is largely trajectory-independent in the VLMs and calibration methods we evaluate. We examine this through three complementary lenses: content variation, token masking, and the model's own hesitation markers. We show that confidence is insufficiently sensitive to what the reasoning trajectory actually contains, and that calibration training can paradoxically worsen this disconnect. Since existing metrics like ECE and AUROC cannot detect this problem, we propose the Trajectory-Grounding Score (TGS) in two complementary forms: TGS-self, which compares confidence with and without access to the model's own trajectory, and TGS-pair, which tests whether the model assigns higher confidence to correct trajectories than to flawed ones along the vision, reasoning, and answer axes. We propose TGS-Bench, a model-agnostic suite spanning 10 benchmarks with controlled good/bad trajectory pairs, and show that conventional calibration rankings diverge from trajectory-grounding rankings, exposing a blind spot in current evaluation practice.