Follow the Mixed Groups: Ridge-Tracking Gaussian Sampling for Zero-Variance Web Rollouts

Group relative policy optimization (GRPO) learns only from prompts whose sampled responses disagree: a group that is entirely correct or entirely incorrect has zero reward variance, contributes no gradient, and still consumes its rollouts. Prompt-selection methods reduce this waste by steering sampling toward intermediate pass rates, but they choose the target, its width, and the uncertainty model heuristically, in raw pass-rate or logit coordinates. We show that GRPO comes with a natural coordinate for pass rates: the arc length $ψ=\arcsin\sqrt{p}$ on the Bernoulli Fisher--Rao manifold. In arc length, the expected GRPO update is uniform up to two boundary ramps; the probability of a zero-variance group is bounded by two Gaussian boundary layers of width $1/\sqrt{2G}$; pass-rate evidence has constant noise; and the gradients of the pass@$k$ and pass$^k$ objectives are Gaussians whose center and width follow from $k$ in closed form. A prompt curriculum for GRPO is therefore a Gaussian in arc length, and choosing its center amounts to choosing the objective. We turn this observation into ARCUS, a drop-in sampler that tracks every prompt with a Kalman filter in arc length, scores prompts by an objective-matched Gaussian kernel times the predicted probability of an informative group, keeps only informative groups for the unchanged GRPO update, and paces the target toward the hardest objective whose predicted yield stays within a small slack of the best. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks and three backbones, ARCUS improves the average accuracy of GRPO by 2.8--2.9 points and that of dynamic sampling by 1.1--1.2 points, while generating 48--57% fewer rollouts than dynamic sampling.

Group relative policy optimization learns from a prompt only when the rewards in the sampled group disagree. With a binary verifier, a group that is entirely correct or entirely incorrect has within-group variance zero and a zero advantage. Uniform sampling continues to spend rollouts on prompts that are unanimous now and stay unanimous as training goes on. Pass rate is a weak forecast of that future. Two prompts at the same pass rate can move apart: one into the range where a finite group splits, and one toward a ceiling where the group becomes unanimous again. Aperture estimates the later pass rate from a short probe. A small subset of the pool is trained with the same recipe, every prompt is scored on the base model and on the probe model, and the two pass rates are plugged into the probability that a group of the training size is all wrong or split. The resulting weight is a static prior. It can be used alone or multiplied by an online scheduler, and the GRPO update is left as it is. On mathematical and logical reasoning with 1.7B and 4B models, the prior improves greedy accuracy over uniform GRPO and raises the fraction of groups with a nonzero advantage. The same prior still helps when it is combined with dynamic sampling or with selective rollouts.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is effective for training language models on complex reasoning. However, since the objective is defined relative to a group of sampled trajectories, extended deliberation can create more chances to realize relative gains, leading to inefficient reasoning and overthinking, and complicating the trade-off between correctness and rollout efficiency. Controlling this behavior is difficult in practice, considering (i) Length penalties are hard to calibrate because longer rollouts may reflect harder problems that require longer reasoning, penalizing tokens risks truncating useful reasoning along with redundant continuation; and (ii) supervision that directly indicates when to continue or stop is typically unavailable beyond final answer correctness. We propose Weakly Supervised GRPO (WS-GRPO), which improves rollout efficiency by converting terminal rewards into correctness-aware guidance over partial trajectories. Unlike global length penalties that are hard to calibrate, WS-GRPO trains a preference model from outcome-only correctness to produce prefix-level signals that indicate when additional continuation is beneficial. Thus, WS-GRPO supplies outcome-derived continue/stop guidance, reducing redundant deliberation while maintaining accuracy. We provide theoretical results and empirically show on reasoning benchmarks that WS-GRPO substantially reduces rollout length while remaining competitive with GRPO baselines.