Truncated Out-of-Bag Probability Gain: A Noise-Robust Criterion for Random-Forest Wrapper Feature Selection

We study feature bagging through the lens of algorithmic stability. Feature bagging is an ensemble strategy that aggregates base learners trained on randomly subsampled feature subsets, possibly in a data-dependent manner. We introduce feature instability (FI), the feature-axis analogue of instance instability (II), which measures sensitivity to removing a single feature. Smaller values of II or FI correspond to stronger stability, and our experiments show that FI captures generalization-relevant information complementary to II. Within this framework, we analyze feature bagging in both a parametric linear model and a model-free setting inspired by recursive feature subsampling in random forests. In both settings, we establish formal guarantees showing that feature bagging improves the relevant stability relative to its non-bagged counterpart, with larger improvements under more aggressive subsampling. We further show that a modest number of bagging rounds is sufficient to approach the infinite-bagging stability level.

Weighted sums of random kitchen sinks (W-RKS) is a commonly used feature extraction technique for supervised learning tasks. A major drawback of this method is the redundancy and ineffectiveness of many extracted random features. This paper investigates efficient methods for reducing such redundancy in multi-class classification problems. We specifically formulate feature selection as a variant of the sequentially nested model selection problem and introduce the Successive Empirical Excess Risk Difference Maximization (SEED-MAX) algorithm. It recursively computes empirical risks to identify the most parsimonious yet informative set of features. We derive an analytical lower bound for the probability of correct feature selection by the SEED-MAX algorithm. This lower bound on the probability of correct feature selection can be made arbitrarily close to one by increasing the training dataset size. To further enhance the rate of pruning, we evaluate the features retained by SEED-MAX using the Fisher test (F-Test). Empirical evaluations on UCR time-series classification datasets show that the sequential application of SEED-MAX with the Fisher test achieves approximately 92 percent rate of pruning with negligible degradation in classification accuracy. Implementations of the SEED-MAX and SEED-MAX-F-Test methods are available at https://github.com/OmidiAmin/seed-max-ftest.

Conditional inference trees (CIT) and conditional inference forests (CIF) reduce split-selection bias by testing features before choosing split thresholds, but repeated permutation tests and threshold searches can make these methods computationally expensive. We study CIT and CIF as top-$k$ feature-ranking methods for downstream prediction using real-data benchmarks, runtime ablations, and synthetic feature-recovery experiments. At a fixed node, if the features and permutation budget do not depend on the node responses, Bonferroni-corrected $+1$ Monte Carlo permutation $p$-values control nodewise rejection under the complete permutation null. CIF ranks 4th among 17 classification methods on 22 datasets and 3rd among 18 regression methods on 8 datasets. With Bonferroni correction held fixed, the CIF runtime ablations indicate that adaptive stopping and the number of thresholds searched have the largest measured effect on runtime: turning off adaptive stopping and using exact threshold search increase fitting time by 4.0--8.4$\times$ and 1.9--10.8$\times$, respectively, while downstream score changes are at most 0.011. Sparse high-$p$ simulations indicate that forest feature sampling can leave informative features out of many split decisions. Overall, the results support CIF as a top-$k$ feature-ranking method in the evaluated downstream prediction benchmarks.