Predicting Music Valence and Arousal via Textual and Multimodal In-Context Learning in Large Language Models

While arousal can be reliably predicted from musical audio, emotional valence remains difficult to model due to its subjective and context-dependent nature. In this work, we investigate the potential of in-context learning (ICL) with large language models to advance continuous valence and arousal prediction. Rather than predicting emotion scores directly, our framework leverages contextual demonstrations from an auxiliary dataset to refine the initial predictions produced by a small, task-specific base model. We systematically evaluate a text-based ICL variant using lyrics and generated audio captions, alongside a multimodal variant that incorporates raw audio signals. Using the entire MER60 dataset strictly as a held-out test set, our experiments demonstrate substantial performance gains, particularly for valence. Text-based ICL improves the valence $R^2$ from 0.110 to 0.427 with 80 demonstration shots, while the multimodal variant achieves 0.346 with only 10 shots. These findings suggest that training-free ICL offers an effective inference-time strategy for current language models to predict continuous music emotion.