Analysing Austrian Parliamentary Speeches by Predicting Party Affiliations
Organizations: University of Vienna
Abstract
This paper examines speech characteristics of the Austrian National Council members (CMs). We introduce analysis methodology based on a fine-tuned BERT-Model which assigns to every speech a probability distribution over Austrian parties. These are then aggregated at the speaker and party level. We perform an extensive evaluation to ensure the quality of the generated distributions prior to further analysis. Instead of considering mis-assignments of predicted parties as a performance issue, we leverage them to derive insights about the CMs and political developments. Our findings show that parties that govern together become more similar in their speech characteristics, while, analogously, parties that are in opposition move further away from governing parties. Moreover, CMs who switch party usually adapt their speech characteristics only after the switch occurs. Finally, we publicly release a data set containing party affiliation predictions for the speeches of the Austrian National Council from 1996 to 2018.
Figures & tables
| Party | Political Leaning |
|---|---|
| SPÖ | centre left |
| ÖVP | centre right |
| FPÖ | right |
| GRÜNE | centre left |
| LIF | centre right |
| BZÖ | right |
| Party | Precision | Recall | F1 | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPÖ | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 12109 |
| ÖVP | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 11477 |
| FPÖ | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 9736 |
| GRÜNE | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 7856 |
| LIF | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 1430 |
| BZÖ | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 2389 |
| Party | Precision | Recall | F1 | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPÖ | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 24218 |
| ÖVP | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 23428 |
| FPÖ | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 16766 |
| GRÜNE | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 12093 |
| LIF | 0.51 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 1869 |
| BZÖ | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 4108 |
| Party | Precision | Recall | F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPÖ | 0,89 | 0,89 | 0,89 |
| ÖVP | 0,85 | 0,95 | 0,90 |
| FPÖ | 0,86 | 0,90 | 0,88 |
| GRÜNE | 0,86 | 0,84 | 0,85 |
| LIF | 0,83 | 0,42 | 0,56 |
| BZÖ | 0,78 | 0,44 | 0,56 |
| Party | Precision | Recall | F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPÖ | 0,74 | 0,82 | 0,78 |
| ÖVP | 0,82 | 0,90 | 0,86 |
| FPÖ | 0,84 | 0,91 | 0,87 |
| GRÜNE | 0,77 | 0,68 | 0,72 |
| LIF | 1 | 0,36 | 0,53 |
| BZÖ | 1 | 0,11 | 0,19 |
| Party | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | STRONACH | PILZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPÖ | 185 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ÖVP | 6 | 211 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FPÖ | 2 | 15 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GRÜNE | 6 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LIF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BZÖ | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zach | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.06 | NEOS |
| Heinz Fischer | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | GRÜNE |
| Ulrike Sima | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | GRÜNE |
| Alois Stöger | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Andrea Gessl-Ranftl | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Christian Hursky | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
| Franz Steindl | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Hannes Farnleitner | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Joseph Huainigg | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Juliane Bogner-Strauß | 0.4 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Kira Grünberg | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Werner Fasslabend | 0.34 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Löschnak | 0.61 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Hans Müller | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Alois Kainz | 0.3 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Christian Pewny | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Christian Ragger | 0.26 | 0.44 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ÖVP |
| Christian Ries | 0.14 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ÖVP |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berivan Aslan | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.05 | SPÖ |
| Bettina Hradecsni | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | SPÖ |
| Heidemarie Rest-Hinterseer | 0.37 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Johannes Voggenhuber | 0.49 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SPÖ |
| Kurt Grünewald | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | SPÖ |
| Wolfgang Pirklhuber | 0.4 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.33 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | SPÖ |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
| Friedhelm Frischenschlager | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SPÖ |
| Helmut Moser | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SPÖ |
| Helmut Peter | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Maria Schaffenrath | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | GRÜNE |
| Peter Haselsteiner | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Rosa Mlinar | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.04 | SPÖ |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
| Ernest Windholz | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.4 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Gerhard Huber | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Hubert Gorbach | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ÖVP |
| Karin Gastinger | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Peter Westenthaler | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.4 | 0.09 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Sigisbert Dolinschek | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Vavrik | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.04 | FPÖ |
| Gerald Loacker | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.02 | FPÖ |
| Irmgard Griss | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.06 | SPÖ |
| Josef Schellhorn | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0.02 | FPÖ |
| Nikolaus Scherak | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.04 | GRÜNE |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
| Elisabeth Kaufmann-Bruckberger | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | FPÖ |
| Erich Tadler | 0.2 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | BZÖ |
| Georg Vetter | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.01 | FPÖ |
| Leopold Steinbichler | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.1 | 0.01 | FPÖ |
| Martina Schenk | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.01 | BZÖ |
| Robert Lugar | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.3 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.01 | FPÖ |
| Speaker | SPÖ | ÖVP | FPÖ | GRÜNE | LIF | BZÖ | NEOS | TS | PILZ | predicted |
| Alfred J. Noll | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.04 | GRÜNE |
| Alma Zadic | 0.23 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.12 | SPÖ |
| Daniela Holzinger-Vogtenhuber | 0.41 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.04 | SPÖ |
| Martha Bißmann | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.17 | SPÖ |
| Peter Kolba | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.1 | SPÖ |
| Stephanie Cox | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.05 | SPÖ |
Political Discourse Analysis
Political discourse analysis studies how language expresses ideology, frames issues, persuades audiences, and shapes political debate.
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