Satellite-derived bathymetry of Arabian Gulf ports under leakage-free validation: a multi-site benchmark of empirical, machine-learning and deep-learning models against 285,000 multibeam soundings, with an outlook for UAE waters

Satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) from multispectral imagery is cost-effective but scales poorly across regions, especially in optically complex coastal environments. We evaluate machine learning and deep learning for transferable SDB over the 0-20 m depth range using Sentinel-2 imagery. A Random Forest baseline and four CNNs (ResNet-50, ResNet-101, EfficientNet-B4, ConvNeXt-Large) are trained on Pratas Island and selected Great Barrier Reef regions, then evaluated on spatially independent intra- and cross-regional test areas. Preserving spatial continuity during training, by keeping contiguous reef blocks rather than random patches, is the single most impactful design choice; we further introduce a Smooth Weight Function (SWF)-weighted RMSE loss that emphasizes near-surface depths. With these choices, intra-regional RMSE ranges from 1.15 to 1.92 m over 0-20 m and is as low as 0.26 m for depths <= 3 m. Random Forest degrades sharply under cross-regional transfer (RMSE 1.53 m -> 2.99-3.78 m), while the deep models stay more robust (2.46-2.98 m). On the public MagicBathyNet aerial-RGB benchmark (0-16 m) the proposed networks reach 0.19-0.22 m RMSE, outperforming a U-Net baseline and a task-specific transformer architecture with substantially fewer parameters. We further exploit multi-temporal repeat imagery: training on it broadens diversity, and median-aggregating predictions across passes at inference reduces noise from changing sun angles, atmospheric conditions, water properties, and tides. We release optimized architectures and pretrained weights to enable scalable transfer to new sites.

Timely monitoring of coastal water quality is critical for environmental protection, yet conventional satellite workflows rely on downlink and ground processing, introducing latency that can limit responsiveness to rapidly evolving turbidity events. To address this limitation, we propose AquaCubeAI, a lightweight machine-learning approach for onboard estimation of coastal water turbidity from Φsat-2 multispectral imagery. By shifting inference from the ground segment to the satellite, AquaCubeAI aims to enable lower-latency, more responsive, and more operationally useful turbidity monitoring under the strict compute and bandwidth constraints of spaceborne platforms. The model is trained on simulated Φsat-2 acquisitions spatially aligned with Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS) High-Resolution Ocean Color (HR-OC) turbidity products over selected localized coastal sites spanning four European marine macro-regions. To provide a realistic evaluation of generalization in the presence of spatial correlation, we adopt a spatial block splitting protocol that mitigates data leakage between training and evaluation subsets. The main contributions of this work are: (i) a scalable dataset generation pipeline pairing simulated Φsat-2 multispectral patches with CMEMS HR-OC turbidity labels across selected localized European coastal sites; (ii) a compact Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based turbidity regressor trained under a leakage-aware geospatial split and tailored to embedded constraints; and (iii) a reformulation for dense spatial prediction via parameter sharing, enabling turbidity mapping and simple threshold-based anomaly masks for onboard decision logic. Embedded deployment on an Intel Myriad Vision Processing Unit (VPU) further confirms the feasibility of low-power hardware and supports low-latency inference from multispectral inputs.

This study conducts a systematic hyperparameter search across five deep learning architectures, DLinear, LSTM, PatchTST, ResAttLstm, and Mamba2, and nine context lengths (1-168 h) for single-station significant wave height (Hs) forecasting on NDBC buoy 41009, followed by re-evaluation of the best configurations on a 47-buoy, 37-year corpus. The five families converge to a common performance level on the multi-buoy evaluation (between-family SD = 0.0014 m^2, 0.8% of the grand mean), a spread dwarfed by the 4.83x cross-dataset MSE shift between buoy corpora. All multi-buoy trials beat persistence (mean skill +0.062), but no architecture consistently outperforms the others. On the single-buoy experiment, skill peaks at 12-24 h where five trials fall below persistence, per-family Q4/Q3 test MSE ratios range from 2.4 to 2.6, and deep models underperform persistence for the most extreme 1% of waves. These findings are consistent with the interpretation that persistence already captures the dominant linear-inertial signal in univariate Hs, and that architecture engineering under this univariate input setting has reached diminishing returns: cross-buoy variance, not model class, dominates forecast error. Future work should prioritise atmospheric covariates, zero-shot cross-buoy transfer, and decomposition of Hs into swell and wind-sea components. By establishing a rigorous reference baseline for what univariate Hs models can and cannot achieve, this study provides a benchmark against which future multivariate and physics-informed approaches can be calibrated, and offers practical guidance for lightweight buoy-level forecasting in mid-latitude storm-dominated and swell-mixed environments.