Forecasting Benchmarks

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 250% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Are We Really Benchmarking Forecasting Models? The Impact of Preprocessing on Time Series Performance

    Oct 6, 2026Guilherme Afonso Galindo Padilha, Paulo Salgado Gomes de Mattos Neto, Rafael Menelau Oliveira e CruzTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    LIVIA, Department of Software and IT Engineering École de technologie supérieure (ÉTS) Montreal, QC, Canada · Center for Informatics (CIn) Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE) Recife, PE, Brazil

  2. Machine Learning for German Redispatch Forecasting under Data Delays and Temporal Distribution Shift

    Oct 6, 2026Faraz Shamim, Faris ShamimDistribution Shift RobustnessTime Series Forecasting

    KIST Medical College and Teaching Hospital, Nepal · OTH Regensburg

  3. HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior

    Oct 6, 2026Jin Huang, Diego Ferreras Garrucho, Yutong Xie +4LLM EvaluationLLM Fine-Tuning

    University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · London School of Economics · MobLab Inc +1

  4. Towards Explainable Benchmarking for Data-driven Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Prediction

    Oct 5, 2026Zhisheng Qi, Li Zhu, Utkarsh Sahu +3Perturbation-Based Feature AttributionForecasting Benchmarks

    University of Georgia Athens, Georgia, USA · University of Oregon Eugene, Oregon, USA

  5. Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty

    Oct 5, 2026Tomas Kaljevic, Ivan Arzola, Yu ZhangZero-Shot Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of California, Santa Cruz

  6. Foundations without Fundamentals: Zero-Shot Blind Spots in Time Series FMs

    Oct 1, 2026Nafiseh Ghoroghchian, Haipeng Zhang, Shuyi Han +2Multivariate Time Series ForecastingZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

    Layer6 AI

  7. Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search

    Oct 1, 2026Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko +3Agentic RLForecasting Benchmarks

    Future Principle

  8. On the Divergence of Accuracy and Mechanism Consistency in Time Series World Models

    Oct 1, 2026Haochen Zhang, Jiaheng Guo, Zhen Xu +4World ModelsTime Series Forecasting

    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · Foci Labs · Stevens Institute of Technology

  9. Beyond Model Ranking: Regime Diagnosis for Distributional-Statistical Misspecification in Industrial Time-Series Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2026Pengyu Nie, Chenglang Xu, Yaoshi Chen +4Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    JD.com, Inc.

  10. The Nixtlaverse: An Open-Source Ecosystem for Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2026Olivier Sprangers, Max Mergenthaler Canseco, Marco Peixeiro +8Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Nixtla, San Francisco, CA, United States

  11. When, Not How Much: Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models on Sparse Events

    Sep 30, 2026Daniel Schoess, Florian von WangenheimForecasting BenchmarksTime Series Representation Learning

    ETH Zurich

  12. M2^2Weather: A Benchmark for Joint Multi-Station and Multi-Variable Weather Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Xiao Wang, Mingyang Wang +4Multivariate Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration

  13. PDE-OBS: Controlled Evaluation Across Observation Patterns

    Sep 29, 2026Ruichen Xu, Siyao Wang, Fang Wan +7Benchmark DesignPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Stony Brook University · University of California, Davis · Independent Research +3

  14. BITS: Rethinking Fair and Comprehensive Evaluation for Irregular Time Series Forecasting

    Sep 27, 2026Kangjia Yan, Linfeng Wang, Tianen Shen +7Irregular Time-Series ModelingForecasting Benchmarks

    East China Normal University, Shanghai, China. · University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China. · Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.

  15. Forecast-Dojo: Replayable Environments for Benchmarking and Training LLM Forecasting Agents

    Sep 24, 2026Liqin Ye, Haorui Wang, Fardin Ahmed +8LLM Agent EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    Georgia Institute of Technology · Amazon · University of Florida

  16. fable.intermittent: benchmarking probabilistic forecasting methods for intermittent time series

    Sep 23, 2026Stefano Damato, Lorenzo Zambon, Giorgio Corani +1Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    SUPSI, Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), Lugano, Switzerland

  17. Forecast Workflow Bench: Evaluating Language-Model Decisions with Budgeted Forecast Tools

    Sep 23, 2026Shunya NagashimaForecasting BenchmarksLLM Tool Use

    Neurogica Inc.

  18. Overlay_dx - Automating forecasting evaluation

    Sep 21, 2026Long Ngo, Mohammed Amine Chamli, Jonathan Rivalan +1Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Smile, Asnières, France

  19. WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting

    Sep 21, 2026Yuhan Zhu, Jilin Hu, Xinying Cai +7Multivariate Time Series ForecastingBenchmark Design

    School of Data Science & Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China · College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, China

  20. Beyond Average Error through Oracle-Informed Stress Tests for Time-Series Forecasting

    Sep 19, 2026Xu Lin, Runheng Zuo, Shengxuan Xu +3Multivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Tsinghua University

  21. How Good Are Time-Series Foundation Models for Pedestrian Crowd Count Forecasting? A Cross-Dataset Comparative Study

    Sep 14, 2026Theivaprakasham Hari, Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin +2Crowd CountingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Transport & Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands

  22. MoveBench: A Benchmark for Global-Scale Wildlife Movement Forecasting

    Sep 14, 2026Justin Kay, Shir Bar, Ellen O. Aikens +28Forecasting BenchmarksProbabilistic Forecasting

    MIT · University of Wyoming · Marburg University, Hessian.AI +16

  23. Beyond Numerical Time Series: A Unified Benchmark for Multimodal Forecasting with Heterogeneous Context

    Sep 14, 2026Peng Chen, Zhihao Zhuang, Hongzhou Chen +6Multivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Ant International · Hangzhou, China

  24. When Does Text Inform? Benchmarking Information-Theoretic Metrics for Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting

    Sep 12, 2026Emma Andrews, Gianmarco MengaldoForecasting BenchmarksMutual Information Estimation

    National University of Singapore

  25. A Later Test Set Is Not a New Domain: Pretraining Familiarity Survives a Contamination-Free Hold-Out

    Sep 9, 2026Mahdi Naser Moghadasi, Faezeh GhaderiZero-Shot Time Series ForecastingDomain Generalization

    BrightMind AI · University of Texas at Arlington

  26. Vishing-Tactics-Bench: Forecasting Exploitation Trajectories in Voice Phishing Calls

    Sep 7, 2026Jeongmin Lee, Dongmyung Sul, Seung Yun +1Forecasting Benchmarks

    Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), Korea · University of Science and Technology (UST), Korea

  27. Can Large Language Models Forecast What Researchers Study Next?

    Sep 1, 2026Fenghai Li, Zihan Tang, Haofei Yu +2LLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  28. Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators

    Aug 31, 2026Xinyue Zhao, Ruiyi Zhang, Liqin Ye +3Time Series ForecastingLLM Agent Evaluation

    Georgia Institute of Technology · University of California San Diego

  29. A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Models

    Aug 21, 2026Kenneth Martin, Simon Heilig, Asja Fischer +3Graph Neural NetworksTime Series Forecasting

    Ruhr University Bochum Bochum, Germany · Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Beersheba, Israel

  30. Long-Horizon Forecasting of Complete Financial Statements with Forma

    Aug 11, 2026Travis L. Johnson, Jiannan Jiang, Soumyabrata Chaudhuri +3Long-Term Time Series ForecastingFinancial Forecasting

    University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA

  31. Benchmarking Time Series Generation Methods for Privacy-Preserving Forecasting

    Aug 11, 2026Luis Amorim, Vitor Cerqueira, Moises Santos +2Synthetic Data GenerationTime Series Forecasting

    Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal · University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal · Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science (LIACC), Portugal +3

  32. Evaluating Generative Time-Series Models on Data with Point Masses

    Aug 10, 2026Jian XuTime Series ForecastingTime Series Generation

    RIKEN iTHEMS, Wako, Japan · RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), Tokyo, Japan

  33. Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging for Adaptive Public Health Forecasting: Comparative Evaluation and an Ontario COVID-19 Case Study

    Aug 7, 2026Yushu Zou, Ye Li, Johra Moosa +3Epidemic ForecastingGradient-Boosted Decision Trees

    Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Canada · Division of Biostatistics, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Canada · Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, University of Toronto, Canada +1

  34. Enhancing Anomaly Resilience in Research Networks: A Large-Scale Forecasting Benchmark for Dynamic Security Baselining

    Aug 6, 2026Mohammad Arafath Uddin Shariff, Byrav RamamurthyNetwork Intrusion DetectionForecasting Benchmarks

    School of Computing University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln, NE, USA

  35. Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load

    Aug 5, 2026Thomas Bartz-Beielstein, Inalbek Akiev, Lalo MohamadTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    THK-AI Research Cluster, Germany · TH Köln, Germany

  36. TIDE: A Physically Diverse 3D Turbulence Benchmark Dataset for Advancing Scientific Machine Learning

    Aug 4, 2026Yilong Dai, Yiming Sun, Yiheng Chen +4Forecasting BenchmarksScientific ML

    University of Alabama Tuscaloosa, USA · University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, USA

  37. SocietyBench: Forecasting Counterfactual Social-World Evolution

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li +1Counterfactual EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

  38. WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li +1LLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

  39. AI World Cup 2026: Benchmarking Large Language Models for End-to-End Football Tournament Prediction

    Aug 4, 2026Jonaid Shianifar, Iias FaiudLLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    AI World Cup Project

  40. FinVerse: Financial Time-Series Benchmark

    Aug 4, 2026Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee +9Benchmark DesignFinancial Forecasting

    LG AI Research

  41. ReasonCast: Towards Explainable Time Series Forecasting with Reasoning

    Aug 3, 2026Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee +9Explainable Time Series ForecastingTime Series Reasoning

    LG AI Research

  42. Benchmarking ConvLSTM for One-Day-Ahead IMDAA Rainfall-Field Prediction across Four Indian Cities

    Jul 29, 2026Tanmay Ghosh, Shaurabh Anand, Rakesh Gomaji Nannewar +1Convolutional RNNsPrecipitation Forecasting

    National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru, India. · School of Development, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, India. · Complex Systems Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru, India.

  43. LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sports

    Jul 27, 2026Jonas Schröder, Jonas Schweisthal, Oliver Müller +2LLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    MCML & LMU Munich Munich, Germany · Paderborn University Paderborn, Germany · University of Cologne Cologne, Germany

  44. Variational Quantum Conditional Boltzmann Machines for Time-Series Forecasting: Architectures, Symmetric Hyperparameter Evaluation, and a Nonlinear Benchmark

    Jul 27, 2026Gerhard Hellstern, Danyal Maheshwari, Martin Zaefferer +2Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Centre of Finance DHBW Stuttgart Stuttgart, Germany · Zentrum für Digitale Innovationen DHBW Ravensburg Ravensburg, Germany · DATEV eG Nürnberg, Germany

  45. GlucoTune: A Unified Framework for Blood Glucose Preprocessing, Forecasting, and Benchmarking in Diabetes

    Jul 23, 2026Davide Marelli, Giorgia Rigamonti, Mirko Paolo Barbato +1Type 1 DiabetesTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Informatics, Systems and Communication, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milano 20126, Italy

  46. Time Series Network Utilization KPI Forecasting Using Advanced AI/ML Models

    Jul 22, 2026Niraj Gadhe, Kirti Bhardwaj, Moulik Jain +2Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Independent Researcher

  47. WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Zhaokai Wang, Tianlin Gui, Jiayuan Rao +3LLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai, China · Nanjing University +4

  48. FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches

    Jul 20, 2026Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason XuLLM Agent EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    University of Memphis Memphis, Tennessee, USA · QuantaInsight Seattle, Washington, USA

  49. A Benchmark for Electrical Load Forecasting Across Grid Levels: Time-Series Transformers Outperform Established Methods

    Jul 17, 2026Matthias Hertel, Sebastian Pütz, Jonathan Kolar +3Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Helmholtz AI, Germany

  50. Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

    Jul 15, 2026Xiao Ye, Jacob Dineen, Evan Zhu +3LLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University

  51. When Directional Accuracy Lies: A Base-Rate-Honest Benchmark for LoRA-Adapted TimesFM on Equity Forecasting

    Jul 14, 2026Taizhen CheungFinancial ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

  52. Institutional Equity Holdings Prediction Using Node Affinities of Dynamic Graphs

    Jul 13, 2026Emad Izadifar, Zahed RahmatiTemporal GNNsLink Prediction

    aDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

  53. When Classical Baselines Are Tuned as Carefully as the Quantum Model, Does Quantum Reservoir Computing Still Win?

    Jul 10, 2026Tushar PandeyTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Texas A&M University

  54. Evaluating the Generalizability of Foundation Models for Extreme Environmental Events: Case Study of California Wildfire PM2.5

    Jul 8, 2026Yongcan Huang, Li Jiang, Ze Yu LiuWildfire ForecastingOOD Generalization

    College of Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA · Information System Department, UMBC, Baltimore, Maryland, USA · College of Graduate and Professional Studies, Trine University, Angola, Indiana, USA +1

  55. Rethinking Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation

    Jul 8, 2026Haoxin Liu, Yichen Zhou, Rajat Sen +2Multivariate Time Series ForecastingZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

    Georgia Institute of Technology · Google Research

  56. When Do Foundation Models Pay Off? A Break-Even Analysis of Pretrained Time Series Forecasters

    Jul 6, 2026Nicholas Tan Jerome, Frank SimonZero-Shot Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany

  57. The Granularity Paradox: How Temporal Disaggregation Inflates In-Sample Fit and Compounds Out-of-Sample Error

    Jul 5, 2026Hugo MoreiraTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    1CIES - Centro de Investigação e Estudos de Sociologia, Iscte - Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.

  58. Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependence

    Jul 2, 2026Zhenghua Pan, Ahmed Aziz EzzatZero-Shot Time Series ForecastingElectricity Price Forecasting

    Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA.

  59. Timesynth: A Temporal Fidelity Framework for Health Signal Digital Twins

    Jul 1, 2026Md Rakibul Haque, Shireen Elhabian, Warren Woodrich PettineTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, 84112, UT, USA. · Kahlert School of Computing, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, 84112, UT, USA. · Department of Psychiatry, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

  60. Diversity is the Strength of the AI Crowd

    Jun 29, 2026Matthew Aitchison, Scott Jeen, Toby Shevlane +1Forecasting BenchmarksLanguage Model Ensembles

    1Mantic Technologies, London, UK.