API-TAIL: Detecting Model Substitution in LLM APIs through Temperature-Aligned Likelihood Tails

Commercial LLM APIs advertise a specific foundation model, but the served backbone may be silently substituted, quantized, or wrapped, for example to save deployment costs. All existing audits decide backbone identity from the text-output channel, which is structurally fragile for agentic APIs because modern serving stacks (OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Cloudflare Workers AI, LangGraph) discard text and expose only structured actions when the model calls a tool, and provider-injected system prompts can distort text distributions enough that text-channel tests falsely accuse honest providers of substituting the claimed model. We observe that recent agentic post-training internalizes tool-use directly into the weights, opening a new audit channel that the serving stack still exposes and that is largely invariant to deployment context. We introduce Agentic Provenance (AgentProv), the first action-based identity audit for agentic LLM APIs: AgentProv fingerprints a deployed model through its categorical tool-call distribution and decides identity via an MMD permutation test. AgentProv catches every substituted model (100% on 630 evaluated checkpoint pairs), while holding the false-positive rate under system-prompt injection at 7% (vs. 67% for MET and 53% for RUT). On third-party API endpoints, AgentProv's disagreements with MET are consistent with an independent token-count side-channel that detects provider-injected system prompts.

As large language models become increasingly widespread, third-party providers that deploy open-weight models have become an important part of the ecosystem. Auditing the quality of their inference APIs is therefore an open problem. We formalize hosted model routing as a stochastic process and propose \mbox{Ventor-QTest}, a composite black-box audit that requires no probability information from the target API. Its repeated-request component sends each frozen constrained context to the target multiple times, reconstructs a categorical output distribution from the returned text counts, and reports average fidelity loss (AFL) as a null-bias-corrected, within-window mean coarsened-KL statistic. Its long-sequence component uses independent runs to report extreme fidelity loss (EFL) through the empirical upper tail of a run-level reference-centered-surprisal statistic. Across three logprob-capable route conditions, AFL shows strong linear descriptive agreement with a logprob-derived coarsened-KL comparator. Across seven route snapshots, 20-run sequence probes reveal route-specific EFL variation. AFL and EFL have little detectable route-level association with GPQA-Diamond accuracy. In contrast, pronounced EFL coincides with a decline in Terminal-Bench pass rate as task exposure increases. This pattern may arise because correctness in long-horizon tasks is more sensitive to extreme fidelity loss. These results motivate reporting AFL and EFL jointly, particularly when auditing long-horizon agentic tasks. The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AI-Infra-Guard/tree/main/services/api_checker/ventor_qtest.

Relay and reseller APIs mediate access to large language models (LLMs), but users cannot directly verify which model serves them. We introduce \name, a black-box auditing protocol based on stable factual recall near the knowledge boundary, including repeatable wrong answers. KBF generates benign, renewable probes and calibrates audit decisions against reference self-variation. Across 16 production endpoints, KBF detects all 155 economically relevant substitutions without rejecting any of the 16 same-reference controls. KBF remains robust to deployment variation and reaches 95% TPR at a substitution rate as low as 15% in mixed-routing simulations. Field audits flag 7 of 28 endpoints across six platforms as statistically inconsistent with their references. After reference enrollment, even GPT-6 Astra costs only approximately $0.67 per online audit at the recorded API prices.