Bayes-Adaptive MDPs for Rollout Allocation to Enhance GRPO Training

LLM post-training often relies on reinforcement learning methods that sample multiple rollouts per prompt, yet most existing approaches use a fixed rollout budget for every prompt, despite large differences in the training signal different prompts provide. In this paper, we study adaptive rollout allocation under a fixed global budget and formulate the problem as online resource allocation with prompt-level diminishing returns. Our method, CERO, maintains a Beta posterior over each prompt's success probability and uses the posterior expected Bernoulli variance as a Bayesian estimate of the value of additional rollouts. We use this estimate to construct a concave, saturating utility over cumulative allocations, yielding an objective in which decisions across prompts and epochs are coupled by the global budget. Since the resulting objective is temporally nonseparable, we derive a Fenchel-dual reformulation and update both prompt-level and budget-level dual variables via projected online gradient descent. Under fixed prompt utilities, we prove an $O(\sqrt{K})$ regret bound against the offline allocation benchmark. Experiments on mathematical-reasoning problems show that CERO consistently outperforms GRPO across multiple open-weight LLMs and benchmarks, demonstrating that adaptive rollout budgeting can improve sample efficiency.

RL with verifiable rewards can substantially improve LLM reasoning, yet standard GRPO-style training often treats easy, hard, and learnable questions alike through uniform sampling and weighting, leading to inefficient compute allocation. We study GRPO by tracking token log-probabilities, group-normalized advantages, and the induced token-level update weights. This reveals three recurring dynamics as training proceeds: (1) confidence inflation, (2) advantage contraction, and (3) hierarchical convergence. These findings suggest that the utility of each update depends strongly on both question difficulty and the model's current competence. Motivated by this, we propose Confidence and Difficulty-adaptive Policy Optimization (CoDaPO), which assigns each question a bounded value from rollout confidence and empirical difficulty. CoDaPO then uses this value to reweight policy updates and resample high-value learnable questions within mini-batches, thereby increasing discovery within the learnable band under a fixed compute budget. Across twelve benchmarks, CoDaPO consistently improves accuracy over existing RL methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/tmlr-group/CoDaPO.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards with GRPO is a standard approach for post-training reasoning LLMs. It remains sample inefficient. Each rollout is used for a single gradient update and then discarded. Naive replay is not well suited in this setting because LLM policies drift quickly per gradient step. Stored rollouts therefore become stale and can destabilize training. We propose a rollout-level replay buffer for GRPO that stores and samples individual rollouts rather than whole groups. The buffer bounds staleness through age eviction. Any rollout older than tau_max training steps is removed. The buffer also preserves on-policy data via fresh-anchored composition. Each batch keeps its fresh on-policy rollouts and then concatenates replay rollouts drawn separately from the buffer. We prioritize replay by per-rollout advantage magnitude and recycle individual rollouts whose advantages are large. Across three Qwen3-Base scales on five math benchmarks, our method outperforms GRPO and naive replay baselines. Gains are positive at every scale and reach +1.66 pp on the five-benchmark average at 4B. Under an AES metric that jointly measures accuracy and token efficiency, our method is the only condition with a positive margin over GRPO at every scale.