GAUSS: A Workload-Aware Analytical and Monte-Carlo Simulator for LLM Inference Serving

LLM deployment is shifting from single-turn completion to agentic trajectories in which a model plans, calls tools, reads results and reasons at test time before acting. This inverts the economics of inference hardware: chat serving amortises weight reads across large batches, whereas agent trajectories are sequentially dependent, run at effective batch one, and make per-token decode latency (TPOT) the dominant term in task completion time. Using a roofline analysis and a closed-form episode-latency model, we show why this regime favours accelerators that keep weights in on-die SRAM (Cerebras WSE-3/3T, Groq/NVIDIA LPU) or compiler-managed tiered memory (SambaNova SN40L/SN50), and why three vendor ecosystems converged in 2026 on disaggregated prefill/decode serving. We show that per-step reliability compounds exponentially in trajectory length-a 2% per-step failure rate erases a 2x decode advantage for a 20-step agent-so determinism and tail latency are first-order performance variables. We then propose a four-layer evaluation framework (silicon, serving system, agent episode, enterprise) with a metric set built on goodput at an agentic SLO and cost per successful episode, a six-axis benchmark protocol over six task families, a paired-bootstrap statistical design, an attestation protocol for vendor-run benchmarks, and TCO, availability and adoption-timing models with explicit break-even conditions. All performance figures are public and labelled by evidence class; we state seven falsifiable hypotheses and the experiments that test them, and argue that the most likely original result is that token-throughput rankings diverge from cost-per-successful-task rankings on long-horizon work.

Modern LLM serving is no longer homogeneous or monolithic. Production systems now combine disaggregated execution, complex parallelism, runtime optimizations, and stateful workloads such as reasoning, agents, and RL rollouts. Simulation is attractive for exploring this growing design space, yet existing simulators lack the architectural completeness and decision-grade fidelity it demands. Their monolithic-replica abstractions are ill-suited to disaggregated serving, while average-case analytical proxies can distort SLA predictions and even reverse optimization conclusions. We present Frontier, a discrete-event simulator for modern LLM inference serving. Frontier features a disaggregated abstraction. It captures the structure and dynamics of modern serving systems by modeling co-location, Prefill-Decode Disaggregation (PDD), and Attention-FFN Disaggregation (AFD) with role-specific cluster workers, incorporating key runtime optimizations (e.g., CUDA Graphs, speculative decoding) within the scheduler-batch-engine loop, and supporting stateful requests for emerging workloads. It further provides accurate and generalizable predictions of computation, communication, and memory costs across diverse serving scenarios with complex workload compositions. On 16-H800 GPU testbed, Frontier achieves an average throughput error below 4%. Compared with state-of-the-art simulators, it reduces end-to-end latency error from 44.9% to 6.4% under co-location and from 51.7% to 2.6% under disaggregation. It scales to over 1K GPUs on commodity CPUs and enables new use cases such as SLA-dependent Pareto frontier exploration, heterogeneous disaggregated allocation, agentic reasoning scheduling validation, and RL post-training reconfiguration. We release Frontier at https://github.com/NetX-lab/Frontier.

LLM serving exhibits extreme length variability, making size-based scheduling difficult in practice. Recent LLM schedulers approximate SJF/SRPT using predicted decode lengths or ranks and primarily report mean-centric metrics such as TTFT and TBT. We show that these prediction-driven policies can be fragile under distribution shifts, bursty arrivals, and GPU memory pressure, while offering limited control over the tail latency (P90-P99) that dominates user experience, even with perfect decode-length knowledge. We introduce a distribution-aware, prediction-free scheduling framework that replaces explicit length prediction with soft priority boosting driven by lightweight statistical signals. Our design co-optimizes scheduling and cache-aware preemption to account for memory-coupled decode dynamics across workload mixes. Evaluated on production and open-source traces, our method reduces P99 TTLT by up to 35-50% relative to SRPT with perfect length knowledge and reduces TTFT by 34-47% across workloads, including reasoning-heavy and chat-heavy tasks. These results demonstrate a robust alternative for optimizing tail latency in online LLM serving.