Why Speculative Decoding Works Better Than Predicted on Sparse MoE Models

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have become an important approach for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs), but their inference efficiency depends strongly on expert activation patterns. Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive generation by verifying multiple draft tokens in parallel, yet existing draft selection strategies primarily optimize acceptance likelihood. In large-scale MoE models, however, selecting draft tokens also determines the union of experts activated during verification. We observe that confidence-driven SD can introduce expert scattering: high-probability draft tokens may route to disjoint experts, increasing expert-weight memory traffic and reducing the speedup from speculation. Motivated by this observation, we revisit draft-tree selection under the non-uniform memory-cost structure of MoE inference. We propose EcoSpec, a cost-aware speculative decoding framework that incorporates predicted marginal expert activation cost into draft selection. With a lightweight expert predictor and a dynamic expert buffer, EcoSpec favors draft paths that preserve high acceptance likelihood while reusing experts already covered by the current verification set, without modifying the target-model verification rule. We evaluate EcoSpec on three large-scale MoE models, including DeepSeek-V3.1 (671B), Qwen3-235B-A22B, and GPT-OSS-120B, across reasoning, coding, question-answering, and dialogue benchmarks. EcoSpec consistently reduces active expert footprints and improves end-to-end decoding speed, achieving up to $1.62\times$ speedup. These results show that accounting for expert activation cost is important for efficient speculative decoding in large-scale MoE models.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by verifying multiple drafted tokens in parallel. However, for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, this parallelism introduces a severe bottleneck: large draft trees activate many unique experts, significantly increasing memory pressure and diminishing speedups from speculative decoding relative to autoregressive decoding. Prior methods reduce speculation depth when MoE verification becomes expensive. We propose MoE-Spec, a training-free verification-time expert budgeting method that decouples speculation depth from memory cost by enforcing a fixed expert capacity limit at each layer, loading only the experts that contribute most to verification and dropping the long tail of rarely used experts that drive bandwidth overhead. Experiments across multiple model scales and datasets show that this method yields 10--30% higher throughput than state-of-the-art speculative decoding baselines (EAGLE-3) at comparable quality, with flexibility to trade accuracy for further latency reductions through tighter budgets.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are increasingly deployed alongside Speculative Decoding (SD) to accelerate inference, but combining the two is challenging. SD improves the inference speed of dense models by verifying groups of tokens in parallel. However, the inference speedup for SD with MoEs depends heavily on the number of tokens being verified. Using more verification tokens results in more experts being transferred from DRAM to the Neural Processing Unit (NPU), which increases the memory transfer cost. This negatively impacts model runtime, as memory transfer is typically the bottleneck in inference. In this work, we investigate the impact of MoE router design during training on the speed of MoEs with SD. We find that routers with high degrees of expert coactivation result in much faster runtimes, mitigating the impact of using more verification tokens. Motivated by this observation, we assess the impact of various router design choices on expert coactivation and runtime using billion-parameter transformer models. We find that combining a global load-balancing loss, shared experts, a consistency loss, and an autoregressive expert selection mechanism during training results in significantly stronger expert coactivation. This increased coactivation translates into higher overall runtime throughput: our exploration yields a model that improves throughput by 21% over MoE baselines, while maintaining on-par accuracy with the baseline MoE.