Understanding axial attention in TSFMs through single location regression

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find that leading transformer-based TSFMs exhibit redundant components in their intermediate layers. We introduce a set of tools for mechanistic interpretability of TSFMs, including ablations of specific components and direct logit attribution on the residual stream. Our findings are consistent across several leading TSFMs with diverse architectures, and across a diverse set of real-world and synthetic time-series datasets. We discover that all models in our study are robust to ablations of entire layers. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework framing transformers as kernel regressors, motivating a purely intrinsic strategy for ablating heads based on the stable rank of the per-head projection matrices. Using this approach, we uncover the specific heads responsible for degenerate phenomena widely observed in TSFMs, such as parroting of motifs from the context and seasonality bias. Our study sheds light on the universal properties of this emerging class of architectures for continuous-time sequence modeling.

Attention mechanisms are central to modern foundation models, yet their training dynamics remain poorly understood, especially when the attention matrices have extensive rank. In this work, we study attention-indexed models, a broad framework that can represent multi-layer and multi-head attention architectures. First, we show that, in a suitable high-dimensional limit, the population-loss landscape is characterized by a finite set of trace order parameters. In contrast, online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is governed by an infinite hierarchy of matrix moments, which we show can be exponentially well-approximated by a finite truncated system. Second, this framework reveals that attention parameterization itself can act as an architectural implicit bias. Direct optimization of an attention matrix $S\in\mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$ can remain trapped in an uninformative state. Tied attention ($S=WW^\top$) induces an automatic symmetry-breaking mechanism and yields weak recovery in $Θ(d^2\log d)$ samples. For untied attention, $S=UV^\top$, we uncover a fast-slow mechanism: the pre-activation mean first evolves on a fast timescale, while the overlaps evolve on a slower one. Weak recovery on the $Θ(d^2\log d)$ scale occurs when the state selected by the fast dynamics breaks the initial symmetry.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks. In this work, we analyze TSFM post-training methods based on their locus of intervention in the prediction pipeline, yielding five categories: parameter adaptation, context augmentation, model composition, output processing and uncertainty control, and compression and specialization. Within each category, we study main representative methods and discuss their current limitations. We further identify future directions toward controlled adaptation, reliable context construction, uncertainty-aware model composition, calibrated output processing, and deployment-aware specialization. Overall, by providing a unifying framework for the emerging TSFM post-training landscape, this work aims to support future research to navigate the design space between a pretrained TSFM and its reliable downstream deployment.