Dual-Axis Policy Entailment: A Benchmark for Policy-Change Reasoning
Organizations: Duke Kunshan University · Johns Hopkins University · Northwestern University
Abstract
Whether a policy shifts domains and, by extension, continues, broadens, narrows, or reverses previous policy is of paramount importance to the study of public policy. We propose Dual-Axis Policy Entailment (DAPE), which evaluates an ordered pair of policy directives on both dimensions at once: a binary judgment determines whether the two directives govern the same policy domain, and a five-way judgment determines whether the later directive continues, broadens, narrows, or reverses the earlier policy, or governs a different domain altogether. Read together, the two judgments form one five-category label, our primary metric. The two-axis design captures two central dimensions of policy change without conflating errors on either dimension into a generic "irrelevant" label, and it makes annotation more rigorous: a coder cannot dismiss a difficult pair as domain-irrelevant without an explicit, checkable decision. We introduce an expert-annotated benchmark of 1,000 ordered directive pairs drawn from a large corpus of Chinese government policy, together with an annotation-calibration protocol (an adjudication packet with pre/post agreement measurement) that we contribute as a methodological artifact. Fourteen open-weight models and four frontier API flagships fail the task zero-shot: even the best frontier flagship's chance-corrected agreement with expert labels is far below the human ceiling (Cohen's vs. ). A fine-tuned open-weight model (LoRA SFT of Qwen3-14B, five-fold cross-validation) closes this gap, reaching the coder-mutual human ceiling ( vs. ). Finally, we apply our method to China's AI policy (1980-2024) and map the direction of policy change across eras.
Figures & tables
| Label | What does to the policy in | |
|---|---|---|
| Consistency | Continues the same policy: renewal or parallel reissue, no material change. | 255 |
| Expansion | Broadens coverage, reach, resources, obligations, or stringency. | 171 |
| Restriction | Narrows coverage, relaxes obligations, lowers stringency. | 176 |
| Reversal | Rescinds or materially reverses the earlier policy. | 127 |
| Irrelevant | A different policy domain; formulaic or topical overlap alone does not count. | 271 |
| Model | Tier | Cov% | Acc | Macro-F1 | Cohen’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qwen3-32b | open | 100 | 0.480 | 0.452 | 0.337 |
| gemini-2.5-flash | API | 100 | 0.452 | 0.430 | 0.297 |
| gpt-5-mini | API | 100 | 0.425 | 0.383 | 0.279 |
| qwen2.5-14b-instruct | open | 100 | 0.412 | 0.357 | 0.266 |
| qwen3-8b | open | 100 | 0.385 | 0.353 | 0.214 |
| llama-3.3-70b | API | 100 | 0.403 | 0.348 | 0.230 |
| slug | n_scored | coverage | macroF1 | kappa | acc | F1_irrelevant | F1_consistency | F1_restriction | F1_expansion | F1_reversal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude_sonnet_45__direct5__t1500 | 1000 | 0.999 | 0.412 | 0.265 | 0.432 | 0.511 | 0.411 | 0.217 | 0.446 | 0.474 |
| deepseek_chat__direct5__t1500 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.406 | 0.282 | 0.440 | 0.527 | 0.400 | 0.124 | 0.477 | 0.503 |
| gemini_25_pro__direct5__t1500 | 1000 | 0.998 | 0.418 | 0.273 | 0.436 | 0.508 | 0.382 | 0.195 | 0.465 | 0.542 |
| gpt_5__direct5__t1500 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.420 | 0.256 | 0.417 | 0.495 | 0.200 | 0.357 | 0.433 | 0.618 |
| Model | macro-F1 | acc. | F1 irrelevant | F1 consistency | F1 restriction | F1 expansion | F1 reversal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFT Qwen3-14B LoRA | 1000 | 0.634 | 0.524 | 0.626 | 0.586 | 0.710 | 0.544 | 0.551 | 0.780 |
| DAPT + SFT | 1000 | 0.621 | 0.509 | 0.614 | 0.561 | 0.698 | 0.548 | 0.513 | 0.786 |
| Gold + model-silver SFT | 1000 | 0.638 | 0.529 | 0.631 | 0.591 | 0.709 | 0.550 | 0.552 | 0.790 |
| Model | macro-F1 | acc. | F1 irrelevant | F1 consistency | F1 restriction | F1 expansion | F1 reversal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFT Qwen3-14B LoRA (five-way) | 1000 | 0.634 | 0.524 | 0.626 | 0.586 | 0.710 | 0.544 | 0.551 | 0.780 |
| SFT Qwen3-14B LoRA (dual-axis, collapsed) | 1000 | 0.649 | 0.548 | 0.643 | 0.600 | 0.724 | 0.594 | 0.551 | 0.776 |
Appendix figures & tables38 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| System | m-F1 | m-F1 obs. | binary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-32B zero-shot | 300 | 0.403 | 0.503 | 0.411 | 0.357 |
| GPT-5 zero-shot | 300 | 0.329 | 0.411 | 0.240 | 0.307 |
| Five-way SFT | 300 | 0.474 | 0.593 | 0.581 | 0.665 |
| Five-way SFT jurcorr | 300 | 0.425 | 0.532 | 0.479 | 0.520 |
| Dual-axis SFT | 300 | 0.542 | 0.677 | 0.638 | 0.702 |
| Dual-axis SFT jurcorr | 300 | 0.481 | 0.602 | 0.484 | 0.539 |
| Metric | BGE-large-zh | Qwen3-Embedding-8B |
|---|---|---|
| Gold-partner recall, top 10 | 87.3% | 89.9% |
| Gold-partner recall, top 50 | 93.7% | 95.2% |
| Median gold-partner rank | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Cosine Spearman, BGE versus Qwen | 0.823 | |
| Similarity-band agreement | 40.4% | |
| Embedder | Band | Qwen3-32B | Five-way SFT | Dual-axis SFT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGE | high | 443 | 0.465 | 0.629 | 0.639 |
| BGE | moderate | 378 | 0.358 | 0.553 | 0.570 |
| BGE | low | 178 | 0.420 | 0.603 | 0.677 |
| BGE | below | 1 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 |
| Qwen | high | 144 | 0.441 | 0.585 | 0.577 |
| Qwen | moderate | 407 | 0.449 | 0.586 | 0.591 |
| Frame | Irrelevant | Consistency | Directional | Mean conf. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniform natural | 1000 | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.000 |
| BGE retrieval | 1200 | 66.4% | 30.6% | 3.0% | 0.996 |
| Qwen retrieval | 1200 | 47.4% | 50.4% | 2.2% | 0.996 |
| Evidence | Pair selection | Related | Directional | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human labels | Different agencies | 27 | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Human labels | Same agency | 264 | 70.1% | 14.8% |
| Human labels | Other agency/year cells | 72 | 48.6% | 9.7% |
| Human labels | Same agency, 1–5 years | 228 | 70.6% | 14.9% |
| Model composition | Uniform natural, unrestricted | 1000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Model composition | BGE retrieval, same agency, 1–5 years | 600 | 41.7% | 1.7% |
| Label | Definition and worked example |
|---|---|
| CONSISTENCY | Policy carries forward with no material change in scope or stringency, including renewals, transmissions, and parallel reports. Example. (2012): “Xuzhou Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, notice publishing the 2012 work-injury insurance data and the periodic benefit-adjustment measures”; (2016): the same notice issued for 2016. The instrument, coverage, and obligations are unchanged; only the reference year moves. |
| EXPANSION | broadens : more coverage, more obligations, or more stringent requirements. Example. (2003): “Ministry of Water Resources, opinions on strengthening the management of village and township water-supply projects”; (2004): “Ministry of Water Resources, notice issuing the Staffing Standards for Village and Township Water-Supply Stations ”. adds concrete staffing obligations to the program established. |
| RESTRICTION | narrows : removes coverage, relaxes obligations, or reduces stringency. Example. (2007): “Guangdong Price Bureau and provincial development-reform and economic-trade commissions, notice on further implementing the differential electricity-pricing policy for the steel industry”; (2011): the same agencies’ “reply approving the cessation of differential electricity pricing for Wenrong Steel Mill in Zijin County, Heyuan City, and other enterprises”. The policy stands, but named enterprises are removed from its scope. |
| CONTRADICTION | rescinds or reverses material provisions of , often via an explicit fèizhǐ (‘repeal’) marker citing ’s wenhao or policy-document ID. Example. (2020): “Lüliang Municipal People’s Government, opinions on accelerating enterprise listing and share-quotation work”; (2025): “Lüliang Municipal People’s Government, notice repealing certain documents”, which lists among the repealed items. |
| UNRELATED | and are not substantively related; topical-similarity-only matches fall here. Example. (1993): “Jilin City interim measures for the administration of urban piped gas”; (2013): “Benxi City measures for gas administration”. The vocabulary and policy area are similar, but two municipalities regulate their own gas systems, so there is no shared policy domain. |
| Comparison | Five-way | Binary relatedness | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| acc. | acc. | |||
| Coder C vs gold | 0.167 | 0.038 | 0.500 | 0.000 |
| Coder D vs gold | 0.133 | 0.008 | 0.533 | 0.000 |
| Coder C vs Coder D (mutual) | 0.667 | 0.519 | 0.833 | 0.667 |
| System | m-F1 | m-F1 obs. | binary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-32B zero-shot | 117 | 0.366 | 0.366 | 0.109 | 0.056 |
| GPT-5 zero-shot | 117 | 0.367 | 0.367 | 0.255 | 0.429 |
| Five-way SFT | 117 | 0.274 | 0.274 | 0.113 | 0.295 |
| Five-way SFT jurcorr | 117 | 0.296 | 0.296 | 0.168 | 0.362 |
| Dual-axis SFT | 117 | 0.251 | 0.251 | 0.074 | 0.213 |
| Dual-axis SFT jurcorr | 117 | 0.282 | 0.282 | 0.142 | 0.339 |
| System | Original gold | Corrected gold | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| macro-F1 | macro-F1 | |||
| Qwen3-32B (zero-shot) | 0.452 | 0.337 | 0.433 | 0.305 |
| GPT-5 (zero-shot) | 0.421 | 0.256 | 0.423 | 0.261 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro (zero-shot) | 0.419 | 0.274 | 0.435 | 0.303 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 (zero-shot) | 0.412 | 0.265 | 0.416 | 0.271 |
| DeepSeek-V3 (zero-shot) | 0.406 | 0.282 | 0.412 | 0.293 |
| Model | macro-F1 | acc. | F1 irrelevant | F1 consistency | F1 restriction | F1 expansion | F1 reversal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-way SFT, original-gold trained | 1000 | 0.626 | 0.505 | 0.613 | 0.581 | 0.670 | 0.534 | 0.552 | 0.793 |
| Five-way SFT, retrained on corrected gold | 1000 | 0.634 | 0.529 | 0.637 | 0.675 | 0.690 | 0.488 | 0.527 | 0.790 |
| Dual-axis SFT, original-gold trained | 1000 | 0.635 | 0.524 | 0.624 | 0.590 | 0.685 | 0.565 | 0.546 | 0.789 |
| Dual-axis SFT, retrained on corrected gold | 1000 | 0.643 | 0.540 | 0.642 | 0.684 | 0.659 | 0.531 | 0.557 | 0.782 |
| frame | scope | documents | paragraphs | years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published corpus (CAPC-CG) | central only | 337,038 | 3,275,477 | 1949–2023 |
| Extended central snapshot | central only | 368,679 | 4,101,064 | 1949–2024 |
| Issuer-matched universe | central + party organs | 456,673 | 3.16M (corpus seg.) | within 1921–2026 |
| Integrated multi-level corpus (ongoing) | all administrative levels | 4,997,123 | 32.46M uids + 3.54M govweb (segs. differ) | 1921–2026 |
| component | status | documents | years | levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial policy database (backbone) | core | 4,842,217 | 1921–2026 | national–county |
| Government-website scrape | core | 159,135 | 1993–2026 | national–county (pref.-heavy) |
| gov.cn policy register (full pull) | register | 120,355 | 1996–2026 | — |
| gov.cn policy register (policy-labelled slice) | register | 39,091 | 1996–2026 | — |
| gov.cn State Council gazette register | register | 15,141 | 2000–2026 | — |
| National Laws and Regulations Database register | register | 24,280 | 2000–2025 | — |
| corpus | national | ministerial | provincial | prefectural | county | unknown | central (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended central snapshot | 13,696 | 353,368 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,615 | 100.0 |
| Commercial database backbone (labelled) | 19,010 | 1,069,449 | 2,066,418 | 1,239,252 | 88,253 | 296,592 | 22.8 |
| Government-website scrape | 40 | 1,134 | 28,453 | 126,945 | 2,563 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Integrated corpus (gross) | 19,050 | 1,070,583 | 2,094,871 | 1,366,197 | 90,816 | 296,592 | 22.1 |
| Channel | Unrel. | Consist. | Expans. | Restr. | Reversal | Direct. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same-agency neighbours | 14,929 | 74.4 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 |
| Reissue chains | 2,326 | 1.6 | 78.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 20.4 |
| Repeal-cue pairs | 2,745 | 64.4 | 19.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 16.6 |
| All pairs | 20,000 | 64.5 | 28.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7.4 |
| Era (by later doc) | Consistency | Expansion | Restriction | Reversal | Irrelevant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deng | – | – | – | – | – | 0 |
| Jiang | 7.7% (2) | 0.0% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 92.3% (24) | 26 |
| Hu | 17.9% (128) | 5.0% (36) | 1.4% (10) | 0.0% (0) | 75.7% (542) | 716 |
| Xi | 4.8% (3109) | 1.8% (1147) | 0.1% (86) | 0.0% (18) | 93.3% (60951) | 65311 |
| Frame | era | unrelated | consistency | expansion | restriction | reversal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central-government subset | Jiang | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central-government subset | Hu | 197 | 67.0% | 22.8% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Central-government subset | Xi | 3477 | 85.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Central-government subset | All | 3675 | 84.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Provincial expansion | Jiang | 25 | 92.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Provincial expansion | Hu | 519 | 79.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Level of | Exp. | Res. | Rev. | Directional | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 597 | 9.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Ministerial | 3078 | 7.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 7.6% |
| Provincial | 62378 | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Province of | Exp. | Res. | Rev. | Directional | |
| Anhui | 477 | 14.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 15.5% |
| Beijing | 801 | 7.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 8.4% |
| domain match (binary) | direction (4-way) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System | acc | F1 | m-F1 | acc | cond. acc | rec. | ||
| Qwen3-14B (zero-shot) | 0.751 | 0.161 | 0.851 | 0.330 | 0.248 | 0.479 | 0.490 | 97.7% |
| Qwen3-32B (zero-shot) | 0.758 | 0.185 | 0.855 | 0.451 | 0.444 | 0.599 | 0.611 | 98.1% |
| GPT-5 (zero-shot) | 0.673 | 0.262 | 0.758 | 0.345 | 0.216 | 0.353 | 0.501 | 70.4% |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (5-fold pooled) | 0.774 | 0.431 | 0.845 | 0.556 | 0.536 | 0.639 | 0.759 | 84.2% |
| System | band | domain | dir. | dir. matched | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-14B zero-shot | [0.0, 0.6) | 19 | 0.158 | 0.769 | 0.727 |
| [0.6, 0.7) | 151 | 0.391 | 0.520 | 0.429 | |
| [0.7, 0.8) | 89 | 0.315 | 0.633 | 0.633 | |
| [0.8, 0.9) | 427 | 0.173 | 0.390 | 0.390 | |
| [0.9, 1.0) | 186 | 0.226 | 0.639 | 0.634 | |
| GPT-5 zero-shot | [0.0, 0.6) | 19 | 0.158 | 0.462 | 0.300 |
| System | total err. | pure dir. | boundary | % of errors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-14B zero-shot | 0.612 | 0.363 | 0.249 | 41% |
| GPT-5 zero-shot | 0.583 | 0.256 | 0.327 | 56% |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT | 0.374 | 0.148 | 0.226 | 60% |
| Model | elicitation | macro-F1 | acc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| qwen3-32b | joint (two outputs, one pass) | 0.447 | 0.333 | 0.477 |
| cascade (domain gate, then direction) | 0.428 | 0.303 | 0.442 | |
| direct (collapsed five-category) | 0.462 | 0.322 | 0.474 | |
| oracle domain gate (ceiling) | 0.618 | 0.576 | 0.666 | |
| qwen3-4b | joint (two outputs, one pass) | 0.238 | 0.107 | 0.324 |
| cascade (domain gate, then direction) | 0.406 | 0.265 | 0.411 |
| slug | coverage | same_acc | same_kappa | same_F1 | macroF1 | kappa | acc | F1_irrelevant | F1_consistency | F1_restriction | F1_expansion | F1_reversal | constraint_viol_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude_sonnet_45__dualaxis__t1500 | 0.999 | 0.755 | 0.170 | 0.854 | 0.332 | 0.216 | 0.397 | 0.242 | 0.518 | 0.180 | 0.410 | 0.312 | 0.000 |
| claude_sonnet_45__dualaxis_cp__t1500 | 0.999 | 0.757 | 0.184 | 0.855 | 0.331 | 0.213 | 0.396 | 0.262 | 0.512 | 0.152 | 0.417 | 0.312 | 0.000 |
| deepseek_chat__dualaxis__t1500 | 1.000 | 0.751 | 0.142 | 0.852 | 0.362 | 0.259 | 0.424 | 0.204 | 0.550 | 0.197 | 0.474 | 0.385 | 0.000 |
| deepseek_chat__dualaxis_cp__t1500 | 1.000 | 0.759 | 0.202 | 0.855 | 0.368 | 0.266 | 0.429 | 0.294 | 0.552 | 0.183 | 0.468 | 0.344 | 0.001 |
| gemini_25_pro__dualaxis__t1500 | 1.000 | 0.755 | 0.161 | 0.854 | 0.388 | 0.249 | 0.418 | 0.227 | 0.520 | 0.274 | 0.365 | 0.554 | 0.000 |
| gemini_25_pro__dualaxis_cp__t1500 | 1.000 | 0.754 | 0.162 | 0.854 | 0.402 | 0.266 | 0.431 | 0.231 | 0.527 | 0.294 | 0.403 | 0.554 | 0.000 |
| Regime | Model | coverage | macro-F1 | acc. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-shot | Qwen3-32B | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.452 | 0.337 | 0.480 |
| Zero-shot | GPT-5 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.420 | 0.256 | 0.417 |
| Zero-shot | Gemini 2.5 Pro | 1000 | 0.998 | 0.418 | 0.273 | 0.436 |
| Zero-shot | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1000 | 0.999 | 0.412 | 0.265 | 0.432 |
| Zero-shot | DeepSeek-V3 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.406 | 0.282 | 0.440 |
| Few-shot | GPT-5 | 995 | 0.999 | 0.445 | 0.279 | 0.436 |
| Setting | cov% | macro-F1 | acc | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-14B zero-shot (main prompt) | 0 | 100.0 | 0.342 | 0.202 | 0.388 |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (n=50) | 50 | 100.0 | 0.448 | 0.315 | 0.473 |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (n=100) | 100 | 100.0 | 0.510 | 0.361 | 0.498 |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (n=200) | 200 | 100.0 | 0.550 | 0.417 | 0.543 |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (n=400) | 400 | 100.0 | 0.587 | 0.460 | 0.575 |
| Qwen3-14B LoRA SFT (full gold) | 804 | 100.0 | 0.634 | 0.524 | 0.626 |
| F1 [95% CI] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class | Qwen3-32B (zs) | GPT-5 (zs) | Qwen3-14B (SFT) | |
| CONS | 255 | 0.567 [0.522,0.610] | 0.199 [0.145,0.253] | 0.710 [0.664,0.753] |
| EXPAN | 171 | 0.531 [0.476,0.585] | 0.433 [0.378,0.486] | 0.551 [0.487,0.612] |
| RESTR | 176 | 0.425 [0.350,0.495] | 0.357 [0.289,0.428] | 0.544 [0.481,0.601] |
| CONTR | 127 | 0.477 [0.375,0.568] | 0.618 [0.537,0.690] | 0.780 [0.716,0.833] |
| UNREL | 271 | 0.262 [0.199,0.327] | 0.495 [0.448,0.542] | 0.586 [0.536,0.633] |
| Model | Family | Cond. | Cov. | TVD | KL | MacroRec. | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-sonnet-4.5 | Claude | zs | 0.999 | 0.193 | 0.116 | 0.411 | EXPAN | RESTR |
| deepseek-r1-distill-qwen-14b | DeepSeek | zs | 1.000 | 0.526 | 0.612 | 0.317 | CONS | UNREL |
| deepseek-v3 | DeepSeek | zs | 1.000 | 0.450 | 0.487 | 0.362 | CONS | UNREL |
| deepseek-v3-chat | DeepSeek | zs | 1.000 | 0.268 | 0.216 | 0.428 | EXPAN | RESTR |
| glm-4-9b-chat | GLM | zs | 0.822 | 0.437 | 1.082 | 0.303 | EXPAN | RESTR |
| gpt-5 | GPT | zs | 1.000 | 0.248 | 0.132 | 0.428 | EXPAN | CONS |
| Class | Precision | Recall | F1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | SFT | ZS | SFT | ZS | SFT | ||
| CONS | 255 | 0.340 | 0.740 | 0.918 | 0.682 | 0.496 | 0.710 |
| EXPAN | 171 | 0.469 | 0.536 | 0.222 | 0.567 | 0.302 | 0.551 |
| RESTR | 176 | 0.336 | 0.518 | 0.256 | 0.574 | 0.290 | 0.544 |
| CONTR | 127 | 0.800 | 0.825 | 0.252 | 0.740 | 0.383 | 0.780 |
| UNREL | 271 | 0.696 | 0.582 | 0.144 | 0.590 | 0.239 | 0.586 |
| Family | Condition | Cov% | Macro-F1 | Acc | cons | expa | rest | reve | irre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2 | zero-shot | 84.2 | 0.180 | 0.182 | 0.226 | 0.373 | 0.043 | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.457 |
| SFT (5-fold LoRA) | 100.0 | 0.608 | 0.492 | 0.600 | 0.690 | 0.523 | 0.516 | 0.770 | 0.539 | |
| Qwen3-14B | zero-shot | 100.0 | 0.342 | 0.202 | 0.388 | 0.496 | 0.302 | 0.290 | 0.383 | 0.239 |
| SFT (5-fold LoRA) | 100.0 | 0.634 | 0.524 | 0.626 | 0.710 | 0.551 | 0.544 | 0.780 | 0.586 | |
| SFT - zero-shot | 15.8 | 0.428 | 0.310 | 0.374 | 0.317 | 0.480 | 0.487 | 0.770 | 0.082 | |
| SFT - zero-shot | 0.0 | 0.292 | 0.322 | 0.238 | 0.214 | 0.249 | 0.254 | 0.397 | 0.347 |
| Technique | macro-F1 | acc. | note | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFT fold-0 baseline | 196 | 0.635 | 0.533 | 0.633 | replication |
| Self-consistency | 196 | 0.638 | 0.553 | 0.648 | test-time vote |
| RAFT | 196 | 0.623 | 0.524 | 0.622 | |
| DPO | 196 | 0.632 | 0.538 | 0.638 | |
| GRPO | 196 | 0.622 | 0.519 | 0.617 | |
| KTO | – | – | – | – | deterministic TRL failure |
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Pairs | 5,000 |
| Unanimous (5/5) | 3,522 (70.4%) |
| 4/5 agreement | 765 |
| 3/5 agreement | 645 |
| 2/5 agreement | 68 |
| Mean pairwise adapter agreement | 0.849 |
| slug | n_scored | coverage | macroF1 | kappa | acc | F1_irrelevant | F1_consistency | F1_restriction | F1_expansion | F1_reversal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deepseek_chat__direct5__t0 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.390 | 0.256 | 0.416 | 0.506 | 0.284 | 0.164 | 0.470 | 0.525 |
| deepseek_chat__direct5__t4000 | 1000 | 0.999 | 0.391 | 0.258 | 0.420 | 0.510 | 0.322 | 0.141 | 0.475 | 0.506 |
| deepseek_chat__direct5__t8000 | 1000 | 0.996 | 0.397 | 0.266 | 0.425 | 0.511 | 0.352 | 0.160 | 0.470 | 0.494 |
| gemini_25_pro__direct5__t1500__temp0.7__seed1 | 1000 | 0.998 | 0.434 | 0.290 | 0.449 | 0.521 | 0.398 | 0.237 | 0.465 | 0.546 |
| gemini_25_pro__direct5__t1500__temp0.7__seed2 | 1000 | 0.997 | 0.431 | 0.289 | 0.448 | 0.521 | 0.386 | 0.221 | 0.480 | 0.546 |
| gpt_5__direct5__t1500__temp0.7__seed1 | 1000 | 1.000 | 0.425 | 0.262 | 0.423 | 0.514 | 0.216 | 0.337 | 0.420 | 0.638 |
| five-way (all pairs) | direction (related pairs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System | m-F1 | acc | m-F1 | cond. acc | ||
| Signal-only rule (obligations) | – | – | – | 0.074 | 0.023 | 0.431 |
| Signal-only rule (flexibility) | – | – | – | 0.074 | 0.017 | 0.382 |
| Prompt fusion (signal line in prompt) | 0.638 | 0.530 | 0.629 | 0.565 | 0.558 | 0.755 |
| Fine-tuned classifier (no signal) | 0.649 | 0.548 | 0.643 | 0.572 | 0.576 | 0.759 |
| Hard-rule override (neg. control) | 0.631 | 0.524 | 0.623 | 0.552 | 0.545 | 0.725 |
Policy Evaluation
Policy evaluation estimates the outcomes, value, risks, and fairness of decision rules before or after deployment.
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