To Align Long, Plan Short: Simulating Diverse Profile-Aligned Students by Realizing Short-Term Plans in Long-Horizon Learning Environments

Simulated students let researchers test tutoring systems and teaching strategies before real learners are available, but only if the simulation reproduces where a particular learner succeeds and fails. The common approach asks a large language model to role-play a student, but a role does not model what this learner knows or will do next, so the model's own competence fills the gap. Simulated students perform at a level set by the model, differ little from one another, and seldom make the real learners' errors. We model the learner's behavior and recast student simulation as third-person prediction of the learner's next action. HACHIMI-II builds a student model from the learner's history, infers the learner's state for the current item or tutor turn, and compiles it into a behavior harness that constrains the next action. On three item-response datasets, the Wasserstein-1 distance between simulated and real student ability is 2.4--8.4$\times$ smaller than that of the strongest baseline. On two dialogue datasets, HACHIMI-II reproduces real student errors with the same knowledge type, locus, and mechanism 1.8--5.1$\times$ more often than the strongest baseline, and ablations trace the gains mainly to the explicit learner state. Predicting the learner makes capable models usable as simulated students.

A key part of developing large language model (LLM)-powered, automated tutoring tools is student simulation, i.e., using LLMs to role-play as students, which can facilitate tutor model evaluation and training. Existing work mostly focuses on within-dialogue simulation, which lacks context on student knowledge and behavior, partly due to not grounding in past student question-answering or dialogue interactions. In this work, we introduce the task of history-conditioned student simulation, where the goal is to accurately predict student dialogue turns by leveraging information in the student's learning history. We propose a two-component framework in which a profile generator summarizes a student's history and a simulator predicts student turns conditioned on the resulting profile. We train both components with reinforcement learning (RL), yielding profiles optimized for faithful student simulation. We evaluate our method and baselines on the first-of-its-kind real-world dataset of student dialogues and question responses that we collect from a math learning platform. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly outperforms baselines, and demonstrate the importance of history, profiles, and RL training.

AI tutors are most useful when they adapt to each student's strengths, weaknesses, and preferred guidance, but evidence about which guidance works for which student is sparse, slow, and costly to collect from real learners. Student simulators can provide this signal as a proxy, yet existing approaches are limited: state-tracking models fit student behavior but struggle to process explanations or corrections, while LLM role-play follows guidance fluently but does not reliably match the competence of the student being imitated. We present StudentSim, a training framework that turns sparse per-student data into individualized simulators through pooled training followed by per-student specialization. The resulting simulators both mirror a student's own responses and update them under tutor guidance. We also introduce StudentSimEval, a standardized protocol covering 60 students across chess, second-language English writing, and mathematics, using public learner datasets with de-identified records shared for research. StudentSimEval measures behavioral fidelity (F), or how well a simulator matches a student's responses, and guidance responsiveness (R), or how readily it updates under tutor guidance, with all methods fit and evaluated on the same records. Across all three domains, StudentSim outperforms GPT-5.4 on both metrics. In chess, StudentSim reaches F=0.51 and R=0.91, compared with 0.23 and 0.72 for GPT-5.4 and 0.45 and 0.27 for Maia2. As a proof of concept, using StudentSim as a reward model for tutor reinforcement learning produces a chess tutor that expert humans rate as more accurate, better-guided, and more personalized than a no-RL baseline and a tutor trained against a GPT-5.4 simulator reward. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/StudentSim.