Bayesian Inference

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 300% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Causal Posterior Estimation
May 27, 2025Simon Dirmeier, Antonietta MiraBayesian Inference Simulation-Based Inference
Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich, Switzerland · Università della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland · Insubria University, Italy
Bayesian Deep Learning for Discrete Choice
May 23, 2025Daniel F. Villarraga, Ricardo A. DazianoBayesian Neural Networks Bayesian Inference
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, 220 Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Physics-Informed Sylvester Normalizing Flows for Bayesian Inference in Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy
May 6, 2025Julian P. Merkofer, Dennis M. J. van de Sande, Alex A. Bhogal +1Normalizing Flows Bayesian Inference
Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands · University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Variational Model Merging for Pareto Front Estimation in Multitask Finetuning
Dec 11, 2024Hugo Monzón Maldonado, Nico Daheim, Thomas Möllenhoff +2Bayesian Inference Multi-Task Learning
RIKEN Center for AI Project, Japan · Ubiquitous Knowledge Processing Lab (UKP Lab), Department of Computer Science, Technical University of Darmstadt and National Research Center for Applied Cybersecurity ATHENE, Germany · National Research Center for Applied Cybersecurity ATHENE, Germany
Joint Bayesian Parameter and Model Order Estimation for Low-Rank Probability Mass Tensors
Oct 8, 2024Joseph K. Chege, Arie Yeredor, Martin HaardtBayesian Inference Tensor Decomposition
Communications Research Laboratory, Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Hierarchical Bayesian Crowdsourcing with Item Difficulty
May 29, 2024Seong Woo Han, Ozan Adıgüzel, Bob CarpenterInter-Rater Reliability Latent Variable Models
University of Pennsylvania · Columbia University · Center for Computational Mathematics, Flatiron Institute
PhyloGFN: Phylogenetic inference with generative flow networks
Oct 12, 2023Mingyang Zhou, Zichao Yan, Elliot Layne +5Bayesian Inference Posterior Sampling
McGill University · McGill University, Mila · Universit´e de Montr´eal, Mila
A Bayesian Approach for the Network Reconstruction of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems from Cascading Failures
Nov 28, 2022MirSaleh Bahavarnia, Hiba Baroud, Yu Wang +1Bayesian Inference
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA. · School of Computer and Data Sciences at the University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA. · Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA.
A Generalized Tangent Approximation based Variational Inference Framework for Strongly Super-Gaussian Likelihoods
Date pendingSomjit Roy, Pritam Dey, Debdeep Pati +1Bayesian Inference Variational Inference
Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843 · Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706

May 27, 2025, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Causal Posterior Estimation

Simon Dirmeier, Antonietta Mira

Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich, Switzerland · Università della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland · Insubria University, Italy

Bayesian Inference Simulation-Based Inference Neural Posterior Estimation

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We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where evaluating the likelihood function is intractable or computationally expensive, but generating outputs given parameter values is straightforward. CPE approximates the posterior distribution using flow matching while directly incorporating the conditional dependence structure induced by the model's graphical representation into the neural network architecture. Across extensive experiments, we demonstrate that hard-coding these conditional dependencies into the network, rather than requiring them to be learned from data, enables CPE to achieve highly accurate posterior inference that matches or outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

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Latest papers 219