Simulation-Based Inference

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Overview

Simulation-based inference uses a generative simulator to learn about unknown parameters when the likelihood of observed data is unavailable or too costly to compute. Methods include approximate Bayesian computation and neural posterior, likelihood, or ratio estimation, often using normalizing flows or diffusion models to produce posterior samples. These approaches are used in settings such as epidemiology, cosmology, engineering, and biological systems, and can be amortized to answer many inference queries after training. A central challenge is ensuring accurate, calibrated uncertainty when simulations are expensive or the simulator differs from reality; calibration tests, identifiability checks, and careful posterior validation remain essential.

Latest papers

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87 papers21 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Bayesian Inference of Expensive Simulators: Survey and Comparison of Design Choices

    Oct 27, 2026Šimon Soldát, Václav ŠmídlSimulation-Based InferenceBayesian Inverse Problems

    Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Karlovo náměstí 13, Praha 2, 120 00, Czech Republic.

  2. Simulation-Efficient Double-Flow Neural Posterior Estimation for Agent-Based Models

    Oct 26, 2026Junyao Zhang, Jinglai Li, Junqi TangNeural Posterior EstimationSimulation-Based Inference

    School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  3. Intrinsic Information Rates of Summaries in Simulation-Based Inference

    Oct 26, 2026Vansh Bansal, Pradip Sharma Poudel, James G. ScottSimulation-Based InferenceInformation Bottleneck

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Texas at Austin

  4. Prediction Uncertainty Controlled Computer Model Calibration

    Oct 22, 2026Ryan Heejoon Byun, Dayeon Yoon, Won ChangModel CalibrationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Statistics, Seoul National University · Institute for Data Innovation in Science, Seoul National University

  5. Asynchronous, Generation-Free ABC: Streaming AMIS Reweighting for Heterogeneous Simulator Workloads on HPC

    Oct 21, 2026Julian Herold, Markus Götz, Alexander SchugSimulation-Based InferencePosterior Sampling

    Scientific Computing Center, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

  6. Cross-Fitting for Neural Posterior Estimation

    Oct 19, 2026Jeffrey RegierCross-FittingNeural Posterior Estimation

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109

  7. ENFR: Evidence Networks with Flow-Matched References for Amortized Simulation-Based Model Inference

    Oct 16, 2026Kai Lehman, Jameson Dong, Carolina Cuesta-Lazaro +5Bayesian InferenceSimulation-Based Inference

    Universitäts-Sternwarte München, Fakultät für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Scheinerstr. 1, 81679 München, Germany · Center for Computational Astrophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Avenue, New York, NY, 10010, USA · Excellence Cluster ORIGINS, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching, Germany +8

  8. Conditional Mean Flows: Few-Step Densities for Simulation-Based Inference

    Oct 15, 2026Jonas Arruda, Jan Hasenauer, Stefan T. RadevSimulation-Based InferenceFlow-Based Generative Modeling

    University of Bonn · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  9. Deep Generative Models for Phylogenetic Inference with Complex Evolutionary Processes

    Oct 13, 2026Ethan Baron, Alan N. Amin, Andrew Gordon WilsonPhylogenetic InferenceGenerative Modeling

    New York University

  10. Joint Neural Posterior Estimation and Model Selection for Chemical Reaction Networks

    Oct 13, 2026J. Arturo Esquivel, Jorge A. Campos-Gonzalez-Angulo, Sergio Pablo-García +2Bayesian InferenceNeural Posterior Estimation

    Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada · Schools of Mathematics & Physics and Chemistry & Molecular Biosciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia · Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Quantum Biotechnology, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia +9

  11. Semi-Amortized Bayesian Inference with Reusable Local Posteriors

    Oct 13, 2026Niek Stevenson, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Andrew Heathcote +1Bayesian InferenceAmortized Inference

    University of Amsterdam · TU Dortmund University · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  12. Sample-Size Extrapolation in Simulation-Based Inference via Statistical Scaling

    Oct 12, 2026Shiyi Sun, Lei Fang, Geoff K NichollsPosterior ContractionSimulation-Based Inference

    Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. · Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

  13. Two-way Guidance: Simultaneous Learning of Summary Statistics for Generative Bayes

    Oct 9, 2026Percy S. Zhai, Max Pachman, Peverel D. Shipley +1Simulation-Based InferenceConditional Distribution Estimation

    University of Chicago · North Carolina State University

  14. Exploiting Gradients in Bayesian Inference of Expensive Simulators

    Oct 8, 2026Šimon Soldát, Václav ŠmídlSimulation-Based InferenceBayesian Optimization

    Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic · Institute of Plasma Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

  15. Anytime-valid simulation-based hypothesis testing

    Oct 6, 2026Patrick Forré, Lydia BrennerSimulation-Based InferenceSequential Hypothesis Testing

    University of Amsterdam · Nikhef

  16. Spectra: Exact Component Transport for Test-Time Prior Adaptation in Simulation-Based Inference

    Oct 6, 2026Xin Zhao, Nico Scherf, Robert Trampel +2Simulation-Based InferenceTest-Time Adaptation

    Department of Neurophysics, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany · International Max Planck Research School on Cognitive NeuroImaging, Leipzig, Germany · Methods and Development Group Neural Data Science and Statistical Computing, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany +3

  17. A perspective note on likelihood approximation and inference for complex simulation models using a chain of aggregated normalizing flows

    Oct 5, 2026Getachew K BefekaduSimulation-Based InferenceSurrogate Modeling

    DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.

  18. Gated Graph Neural Networks for Learning Hidden Independent Cascade Dynamics

    Oct 2, 2026Anubha Goel, Illia Oleksiienko, Mateusz Wilinski +2Parameter EstimationGraph Neural Networks

  19. Mitigating Representation Gaps in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Auxiliary Supervision

    Sep 30, 2026Hans Olischläger, Svenja Jedhoff, Šimon Kucharský +3Simulation-Based InferenceAmortized Inference

    Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Germany · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  20. A Missing Latent, Not a Missing Simulator: Radius-Augmented Inference for Real JWST Retrieval

    Sep 30, 2026Angshuman Chakravertty, P V V RajSimulation-Based InferenceBayesian Inverse Problems

    SVKM’s NMIMS (Deemed to be University)

  21. High-Dimensional Simulation-Based Inference in Latent Spaces

    Sep 29, 2026Lars Kühmichel, Stefan T. Radev, Bhanu Prasanna Koppolu +3Simulation-Based InferenceNeural Posterior Estimation

    Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Germany · Department of Cognitive Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  22. Scalable Diffusion SBI for Compositional Inference under Simulator Misspecification

    Sep 29, 2026Vincent D. Zaballa, Elliot E. HuiSimulation-Based InferenceDiffusion Model Fine-Tuning

    University of California, Irvine

  23. Hybrid Neural Simulation-Based Inference for Robust Applications and Limited-Budget Scenarios

    Sep 28, 2026Sean Benevedes, Mani Dehghan, Aishik Ghosh +1Simulation-Based InferenceCost-Aware Inference

    School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA · School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA · Max Planck Institute for Physics, Boltzmannstr. 8, 85748 Garching, Germany

  24. Simulation-Based Quantum System Inference with Neural Posterior Estimation

    Sep 28, 2026Hang Zou, Anton Frisk Kockum, Martin Rahm +1Simulation-Based InferenceNeural Posterior Estimation

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Microtechnology and Nanoscience, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden

  25. Recovery-Directed Symbolic Distillation of Neural Likelihoods

    Sep 26, 2026Kianté Fernandez, Xinwei LiSymbolic RegressionSimulation-Based Inference

    Department of Psychology University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering National University of Singapore Singapore

  26. Uncertainty and Explainability in Deep Rough Volatility: A Neural Information-Theoretic Posterior Approach

    Sep 25, 2026Damiano Brigo, Raphaël Huser, Dan LeonteQuantitative FinanceUncertainty Quantification

  27. Testing, not presuming, adequacy: calibrating generative social simulators against emergent network structure

    Sep 21, 2026Tengfei Shao, Chao Li, Xu Wang +1Simulation-Based InferenceComputational Social Science

    Global Education Center, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · School of Informatics, Gunma University, Gunma, Japan

  28. Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows

    Sep 9, 2026Phil AsshetonSimulation-Based InferenceNormalizing Flows

    statsadvice.com, Berlin, Germany.

  29. Inductive Biases in Field-Level Cosmological Inference from Galaxy Catalogs

    Sep 8, 2026James O. Baldwin, Shy Genel, Francisco Villaescusa-NavarroSimulation-Based InferenceGraph Neural Networks

    City University of New York Graduate Center, 365 5th Ave, New York, NY 10016 · Center for Computational Astrophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA · Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory, Columbia University, 550 West 120th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA +1

  30. Calibrating subgrid parametrizations of single-column ocean models via simulation-based inference

    Sep 3, 2026Luben M. C. Cabezas, Sacha Wendling, Aurèle Gallard +3Model CalibrationSimulation-Based Inference

    DEs, ICMC Federal Univ. of São Carlos, Univ. of São Paulo, Brazil · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, INRAE, IGE, France