Lyapunov Exponent Estimation

Estimating positive largest Lyapunov exponents from data is comparatively natural because neighboring trajectories separate, whereas stable dynamics require resolving contraction before measurement noise or finite precision erases the signal. We introduce a period-aware forecast-error contraction procedure for estimating a dominant negative Lyapunov exponent from ensembles of short scalar trajectories without using governing equations or an analytical Jacobian. A k-nearest-neighbor predictor is trained on trajectory histories, the geometric-mean absolute forecast error is evaluated at phase-consistent horizons, and the exponent is obtained from the slope of the logarithmic error profile. Unlike data-driven approaches that reconstruct local evolution matrices or differentiate a learned surrogate, the proposed method extracts the contraction rate directly from out-of-sample forecast errors. Two adaptations are essential: the forecast step is synchronized with the detected orbit period, and candidate slopes are accepted only when they form a stable consensus across several transient lengths. On the logistic map, the method recovers 92 of 112 negative-exponent parameter values with a mean absolute error of 0.0253 and $R^2=0.886$. On a two-dimensional map without fixed points, independent scalar pipelines based on the three observables $x_n$, $y_n$, and $z_n$ give mean absolute errors of 0.00879--0.01145 and $R^2=0.983$--$0.986$. Because the estimation stage uses only observed trajectories, the framework provides a basis for repeated-relaxation experiments in which short sensor responses are available but the governing equations and analytical Jacobian are unknown. Experimental validation remains a subject of future work.

The cardiovascular system evolves along a bounded trajectory in physiological state space that converges to a compact geometric object: the cardiac attractor. A wearable photoplethysmograph (PPG) or electrocardiograph (ECG) observes a one-dimensional projection of this attractor; by Takens' embedding theorem, delay coordinates reconstruct its full geometry. Three decades of nonlinear cardiac dynamics have extracted Lyapunov exponents, recurrence statistics, and sample entropy from reconstructed attractors, yet no principled account exists of which attractor properties capture which cardiovascular quantities, or why, leaving feature selection as a search problem and negative results uninterpretable. We introduce Attractor Domain Theory (ADT), which proves that the reconstructed attractor's information partitions into three mutually non-redundant domains: the Geometry Domain G (delay embedding; native capability: artifact rejection), the Ergodic Domain S (asymptotic statistical invariants; native capability: stability estimation), and the Variational Domain V (finite-time Lyapunov exponent field; native capability: hemodynamic inference). We prove a Domain Sufficiency Theorem (the Parseval analog for attractor information) and establish that three domains are necessary and sufficient. Geometry Domain validation via the SCSI framework across 176,742 PPG segments from four datasets yields AUC = 0.757 [0.686-0.828] and NPV = 0.966 after correcting three systematic evaluation artifacts (+0.179 net inflation). Ablation confirms C_NL as the dominant Geometry Domain component (Delta AUC = -0.413) and intra-domain redundancy across five components.

The well known phenomenon of exploding and vanishing gradients in deep neural networks is analyzed using multiplicative ergodic theory. The effect of adding a residual connection is explained in this context. Specifically, a characterization of Liapunov exponents due to Furstenberg and Kifer is exploited in order to make a precise statement about the Liapunov spectrum and the effect of residual connections on it.

Detecting transient chaos from scalar observations without governing equations represents a fundamental challenge in nonlinear dynamics. We propose a geometry-guided machine learning framework that unifies predictive trajectory divergence with macroscopic attractor morphology to track abrupt regime shifts. The methodology extracts a local instability scale via out-of-sample k-nearest neighbor forecast errors to establish the ML-FTLE estimator, subsequently mapping this temporal divergence onto a structural closeness matrix derived from a minimal dictionary of Poincare occupancy grids. By employing partial least squares regression, we extract a latent geometric component calibrated directly to the empirical finite-time Lyapunov spectrum, yielding the Poincare-based geometric-guided FTLE. Validation against analytical QR-FTLE baselines confirms that fusing topological state spaces with predictive divergence systematically improves continuous transition tracking. The Structural Similarity Index optimally resolves gradual damping, while Hausdorff Distance exhibits extreme resilience during abrupt phase-space collapses. Furthermore, macroscopic spatial discretization acts as a robust topological regularizer against additive Gaussian noise, preserving deterministic signatures even at moderate signal thresholds. This equation-free framework provides a highly accurate, noise-resilient diagnostic for monitoring structural transitions in complex non-stationary systems.

Estimating the largest Lyapunov exponent from a scalar time series is difficult when the governing equations, tangent dynamics, and full state vector are unavailable. We propose FEG-Pro, a forecast-error growth profiling framework for nonlinear scalar time series. The method constructs autocorrelation-guided sparse histories, performs distance-weighted k-nearest-neighbor multi-horizon forecasting, and analyzes the logarithmic growth of geometrically averaged forecast errors. Its primary output is the finite-horizon forecast-error growth slope, lambda_FEG. When the error-growth curve supports a quasi-linear regime, this slope can be compared with reference largest Lyapunov exponents as an estimate of the dominant instability rate. The same pipeline also extracts the formal fit-selection regime, curvature, residual roughness after quadratic detrending, monotonicity, and forecast-error distribution entropy (FEDE) from signed multi-horizon errors. These secondary descriptors are intended not only as diagnostic controls for the slope, but also as candidate machine-learning features for nonlinear signal analysis, because they encode profile geometry and distributional uncertainty not captured by lambda_FEG alone. We evaluate the method on chaotic maps, Mackey-Glass delay dynamics, and scalar Lorenz-63 observables with known or reference exponents. Full-record experiments show good agreement in quasi-linear cases and meaningful curve-shape information in curved or weak profiles. A dyadic length-halving experiment on representative logistic, Mackey-Glass, and Lorenz records shows that residual roughness and mean FEDE often change monotonically and remain interpretable as record length decreases, even when the slope becomes biased or highly variable. The results support treating forecast-error growth as a structured profile and feature-generation framework rather than a single-number estimator.

We prove that activation saturation imposes a structural dynamical limitation on autonomous Neural ODEs $\dot{h}=f_θ(h)$ with saturating activations ($\tanh$, sigmoid, etc.): if $q$ hidden layers of the MLP $f_θ$ satisfy $|σ'|\leδ$ on a region~$U$, the input Jacobian is attenuated as $\norm{Df_θ(x)}\le C(U)$ (for activations with $\sup_{x}|σ'(x)|\le 1$, e.g.\ $\tanh$ and sigmoid, this reduces to $C_Wδ^q$), forcing every Floquet (Lyapunov) exponen along any $T$-periodic orbit $γ\subset U$ into the interval $[-C(U),\;C(U)]$. This is a collapse of the Floquet spectrum: as saturation deepens ($δ\to 0$), all exponents are driven to zero, limiting both strong contraction and chaotic sensitivity. The obstruction is structural -- it constrains the learned vector field at inference time, independent of training quality. As a secondary contribution, for activations with $σ'>0$, a saturation-weighted spectral factorisation yields a refined bound $\widetilde{C}(U)\le C(U)$ whose improvement is amplified exponentially in~$T$ at the flow level. All results are numerically illustrated on the Stuart--Landau oscillator; the bounds provide a theoretical explanation for the empirically observed failure of $\tanh$-NODEs on the Morris--Lecar neuron model.

Massively parallel hardware (GPUs) and long sequence data have made parallel algorithms essential for machine learning at scale. Yet dynamical systems, like recurrent neural networks and Markov chain Monte Carlo, were thought to suffer from sequential bottlenecks. Recent work showed that dynamical systems can in fact be parallelized across the sequence length by reframing their evaluation as a system of nonlinear equations, which can be solved with Newton's method using a parallel associative scan. However, these parallel Newton methods struggled with limitations, primarily inefficiency, instability, and lack of convergence guarantees. This thesis addresses these limitations with methodological and theoretical contributions, drawing particularly from optimization. Methodologically, we develop scalable and stable parallel Newton methods, based on quasi-Newton and trust-region approaches. The quasi-Newton methods are faster and more memory efficient, while the trust-region approaches are significantly more stable. Theoretically, we unify many fixed-point methods into our parallel Newton framework, including Picard and Jacobi iterations. We establish a linear convergence rate for these techniques that depends on the method's approximation accuracy and stability. Moreover, we give a precise condition, rooted in dynamical stability, that characterizes when parallelization provably accelerates a dynamical system and when it cannot. Specifically, the sign of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent of a dynamical system determines whether or not parallel Newton methods converge quickly. In sum, this thesis unlocks scalable and stable methods for parallelizing sequential computation, and provides a firm theoretical basis for when such techniques will and will not work. This thesis also serves as a guide to parallel Newton methods for researchers who want to write the next chapter in this ongoing story.

We analyze speech embeddings from structured clinical interviews of psychotic patients and healthy controls by treating language production as a high-dimensional dynamical process. Lyapunov exponent (LE) spectra are computed from word-level and answer-level embeddings generated by two distinct large language models, allowing us to assess the stability of the conclusions with respect to different embedding presentations. Word-level embeddings exhibit uniformly contracting dynamics with no positive LE, while answer-level embeddings, in spite of the overall contraction, display a number of positive LEs and higher-dimensional attractors. The resulting LE spectra robustly separate psychotic from healthy speech, while differentiation within the psychotic group is not statistically significant overall, despite a tendency of the most severe cases to occupy distinct dynamical regimes. These findings indicate that nonlinear dynamical invariants of speech embeddings provide a physics-inspired probe of disordered cognition whose conclusions remain stable across embedding models.