Molecular Property Prediction

We present a unique, multitask dataset comprising 143 drug and drug candidate molecules, each evaluated on in vitro, parallel artificial-membrane permeability assays (PAMPA) using six different model membranes. Using this resource, we systematically assess the effectiveness of various molecular descriptors and regression models in predicting passive membrane permeability. The studied models range from simple linear regression to a modern pre-trained transformer architecture. Particular attention is given to the trade-off between predictive performance and model interpretability, highlighting the challenges introduced by machine learning approaches. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive study on simultaneous modeling of multiple organ-specific PAMPA membranes to date, offering novel insights into membrane-specific permeability profiles. We found that expert-designed physico-chemical property descriptors are more fitting for a limited sample size permeabilty study than deep learning based representations.

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a major target of machine-learning-based property prediction, yet most models assume that a single framework representation maps to a single property value. This assumption becomes problematic for experimental MOFs, where samples reported as the same framework can exhibit different properties because of differences in crystallinity, phase purity, defects, and other sample-dependent factors. Here we introduce Experimental X-ray Diffraction Integrated Transformer (EXIT), a multimodal transformer for sample-aware prediction of MOF properties that combines MOFid with X-ray diffraction (XRD). In EXIT, MOFid encodes MOF identity, whereas XRD provides complementary information about the experimentally realized sample state. EXIT is pre-trained on one million hypothetical MOFs with simulated XRD to learn transferable representations, leading to improved downstream performance relative to existing approaches. EXIT is fine-tuned on literature-derived experimental datasets for surface area and pore volume prediction. Incorporating experimental XRD improves predictive performance relative to models without experimental XRD, and attention analysis and sample-level case studies further show that EXIT assigns different predictions to samples sharing the same MOF identity when their XRD patterns differ. These results establish a practical step from framework-aware to sample-aware MOF property prediction and highlight the value of incorporating experimental characterization into porous materials informatics.

Graph-theoretic approaches offer simplicity, interpretability, and low computational cost for molecular property prediction. Among these, the model proposed by Mukwembi and Nyabadza, based on the external activity $D(G)$ and internal activity $ζ(G)$ indices, achieved strong results on a small flavonoid dataset. However, its ability to generalize to larger and chemically diverse datasets has not been tested. This study evaluates the baseline $D(G)$-$ζ(G)$ polynomial model on five benchmark datasets from MoleculeNet, covering biological activity (BACE, 1,513 molecules), lipophilicity (LogP synthetic, 14,610 molecules; LogP experimental, 753 molecules), aqueous solubility (ESOL, 1,128 molecules), and hydration free energy (SAMPL, 642 molecules). The baseline model achieves an average $R^2 = 0.24$, confirming limited transferability. To address this, a systematic enhancement framework is proposed, progressively incorporating Ridge regularization, additional graph descriptors, physicochemical properties, ensemble learning with Gradient Boosting, Lasso feature selection, and a hybrid approach combining topological indices with Morgan fingerprints. The enhanced models raise the average best $R^2$ to 0.79, with individual improvements ranging from 165% to 274%. All improvements are statistically significant ($p < 0.001$). A direct comparison with a Graph Convolutional Network under identical experimental conditions shows that the enhanced classical models match or outperform deep learning on all five datasets. Comparison with the recent GNN+PGM hybrid of Djagba et al.\ further confirms competitiveness, with the enhanced models achieving the best results on two datasets and tying on one. The entire framework requires no GPU, trains in under five minutes, and uses only open-source tools, making it accessible for researchers in resource-limited settings.

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease that lacks specific treatment options. Natural drugs have displayed neuroprotective effects; however, their high-throughput discovery is challenging because of the expense of experimental testing.The study proposed a machine learning approach to identify the anti-dementia activity of natural compounds based on molecular descriptors obtained from cheminformatics. The study used a set of active and inactive compounds obtained from public databases like ChEMBL and PubChem. Various molecular descriptors, including molecular weight, lipophilicity (LogP), topological polar surface area (TPSA), and hydrogen bonding descriptors, were calculated with RDKit. Data preprocessing and feature selection were applied, followed by the development of several classification models (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machines, Logistic Regression) and their evaluation based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score and ROC-AUC. The outcome suggests that ensemble techniques, such as Random Forest, delivered the best predictive accuracy and ROC-AUC values. This study also highlights that critical physicochemical descriptors in particular lipophilicity, molecular weight and polarity are important in driving neuroprotective activity as identified by feature importance analysis. The integrated machine learning approach shows the potential of combining natural product research and machine learning in early drug discovery for dementia. They provide a means of rapidly exploring large datasets and selecting candidates for experimental confirmation, thus minimising costs and time in the development of drugs for neurodegenerative diseases.

Molecular property prediction integrates quantum chemistry, cheminformatics, and deep learning to connect molecular structure with physicochemical and biological behavior. This survey traces four complementary paradigms, including Quantum, Descriptor Machine Learning, Geometric Deep Learning, and Foundation Models, and outlines a unified taxonomy linking molecular representations, model architectures, and interdisciplinary applications. Benchmark analyses integrate evidence from both widely used datasets and datasets reflecting industry perspectives, encompassing quantum, physicochemical, physiological, and biophysical domains. The survey examines current standards in data curation, splitting strategies, and evaluation protocols, highlighting challenges including inconsistent stereochemistry, heterogeneous assay sources, and reproducibility limitations under random or poorly defined splits. These observations motivate the modernization of benchmark design toward more transparent, time- and scaffold-aware methodologies. We further propose three forward-looking directions: (i) physics-aware learning embedding quantum consistency, (ii) uncertainty-calibrated foundation models for trustworthy inference, and (iii) realistic multimodal benchmark ecosystems integrating computational and experimental data. Repository: https://github.com/Zongru-Li/Survey-and-Benchmarks-of-DL-for-Molecular-Property-Prediction-in-the-Foundation-Model-Era.

Accurate molecular property prediction is central to drug discovery, catalysis, and process design, yet real-world applications are often limited by small datasets. Molecular foundation models provide a promising direction by learning transferable molecular representations; however, they typically involve task-specific fine-tuning, require machine learning expertise, and often fail to outperform classical baselines. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a fundamentally different paradigm: they perform predictions through in-context learning, enabling inference without task-specific training. Here, we evaluate TFMs in the low- to medium-data regime across both standardized pharmaceutical benchmarks and chemical engineering datasets. We evaluate both frozen molecular foundation model representations, as well as classical descriptors and fingerprints. Across the benchmarks, the approach shows excellent predictive performance while reducing computational cost, compared to fine-tuning, with these advantages also transferring to practical engineering data settings. In particular, combining TFMs with CheMeleon embeddings yields up to 100% win rates on 30 MoleculeACE tasks, while compact RDKit2d and Mordred descriptors provide strong descriptor-based alternatives. Molecular representation emerges as a key determinant in TFM performance, with molecular foundation model embeddings and 2D descriptor sets both providing substantial gains over classic molecular fingerprints on many tasks. These results suggest that in-context learning with TFMs provides a highly accurate and cost-efficient alternative for property prediction in practical applications.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have expanded beyond natural language processing to scientific prediction tasks, including molecular property prediction. However, their effectiveness in in-context learning remains ambiguous, particularly given the potential for training data contamination in widely used benchmarks. This paper investigates whether LLMs perform genuine in-context regression on molecular properties or rely primarily on memorized values. Furthermore, we analyze the interplay between pre-trained knowledge and in-context information through a series of progressively blinded experiments. We evaluate nine LLM variants across three families (GPT-4.1, GPT-5, Gemini 2.5) on three MoleculeNet datasets (Delaney solubility, Lipophilicity, QM7 atomization energy) using a systematic blinding approach that iteratively reduces available information. Complementing this, we utilize varying in-context sample sizes (0-, 60-, and 1000-shot) as an additional control for information access. This work provides a principled framework for evaluating molecular property prediction under controlled information access, addressing concerns regarding memorization and exposing conflicts between pre-trained knowledge and in-context information.

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is central to small molecule identification, but current deep learning systems for spectrum prediction still remain difficult to evaluate and deploy in practice. While novel architectures constantly claim state-of-the-art performance, inconsistent metadata conditioning and entangled preprocessing pipelines hinder fair architectural comparisons. Besides, existing evaluations are often restricted to curated datasets, failing to capture the heterogeneity and cross-domain shifts of real-world metabolomics. Furthermore, current benchmarks lack difficulty-aware diagnostics and leave blind to how models behave under specific compute or data constraints. To address this, we present FlexMS, a modular public-data benchmark framework that standardizes MS/MS prediction across public resources while keeping molecular encoders, metadata conditioning, predictor heads, and downstream retrieval under one protocol. FlexMS establishes a fair evaluation playground which significantly lowers the barrier for integrating new predictive tools. Rather than solely optimizing for average scores, FlexMS augments aggregate accuracy with difficulty-aware diagnostics, providing actionable guidance on model selection across different compute constraints, data scales, and downstream retrieval objectives. Ultimately, FlexMS provides the community with a reproducible standard to identify which algorithmic conclusions are stable and which operating points are most viable in practice.

Nanoporous materials hold promise for diverse sustainable applications, yet their vast chemical space poses challenges for efficient design. Machine learning offers a compelling pathway to accelerate the exploration, but existing models lack either interpretability or fidelity for elucidating the correlation between crystal geometry and property. Here, we report a three-dimensional periodic space sampling method that decomposes large nanoporous structures into local geometrical sites for combined property prediction and site-wise contribution quantification. Trained with a constructed database and retrieved datasets, our model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and data efficiency for property prediction on gas storage, separation, and electrical conduction. Meanwhile, this approach enables the interpretation of the prediction and allows for accurate identification of significant local sites for targeted properties. Through identifying transferable high-performance sites across diverse nanoporous frameworks, our model paves the way for interpretable, symmetry-aware nanoporous materials design, which is extensible to other materials, like molecular crystals and beyond.

The reliable identification of magnetic ground states remains a major challenge in high-throughput materials databases, where density functional theory (DFT) workflows often converge to ferromagnetic (FM) solutions. Here, we partially address this challenge by developing machine-learning classifiers trained on experimentally validated MAGNDATA magnetic materials, leveraging a limited number of simple compositional, structural, and electronic descriptors sourced from the Materials Project Database. Our propagation-vector classifiers achieve accuracies above 92%, outperforming a recent equivariant-neural-network study on a differently constructed dataset in reliably distinguishing between zero and nonzero propagation-vector structures, and exposing a systematic ferromagnetic bias inherent to the Materials Project database for more than 6840 candidate materials. In parallel, LightGBM and XGBoost models trained directly on the Materials Project labels achieve accuracies of 82% and 85%, respectively (with macro-F1 average scores of 66% and 63%), proving useful for large-scale screening for magnetic classes, when refined by MAGNDATA-trained classifiers. These results underscore the role of machine-learning techniques as corrective and exploratory tools, enabling more trustworthy databases and accelerating progress toward the identification of materials with various properties.

The discovery of new ionizable lipids for efficient lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-mediated RNA delivery remains a major bottleneck in RNA therapeutics development. Recent advances demonstrate the potential of machine learning (ML) models to predict transfection efficiency directly from lipid structure, enabling high-throughput virtual screening and accelerating lead identification. However, as new models for LNP transfection prediction continue to emerge, the lack of rigorous and standardized benchmarking poses a significant risk and may undermine confidence in their reliability for discovery. Here, we present a robust ML benchmarking framework for evaluating transfection prediction models based on ionizable lipid structures. This framework systematically benchmarks diverse molecular representations paired with a broad range of ML architectures spanning traditional models, feedforward neural networks, and state-of-the-art graph-based methods. In addition, the presented framework supports assessment of model generalization and evaluates prediction reliability beyond standard regression metrics. Using a curated dataset of 1,100 unique ionizable lipid structures derived from the HeLa transfection dataset originally reported by Xu et al., we show that within this framework, models leveraging explicit molecular substructure encoding consistently achieve the highest predictive accuracy and should serve as essential baselines for the development of new, more sophisticated models. In contrast, some current graph-based models, including AGILE, Chemprop, and KPGT, tend to show comparatively lower accuracy. The presented framework provides a standardized, transparent, and comprehensive benchmarking resource that enables meaningful comparison of emerging architectures and establishes strong baselines for future development of predictive models in lipid-based RNA delivery.

Data-driven molecular discovery leverages artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) and generative modeling to filter and design novel molecules. Discovering novel molecules requires accurate out-of-distribution (OOD) predictions, but ML models struggle to generalize OOD. Currently, no systematic benchmarks exist for molecular OOD prediction tasks. We present $\mathbf{BOOM}$, $\mathbf{b}$enchmarks for $\mathbf{o}$ut-$\mathbf{o}$f-distribution $\mathbf{m}$olecular property predictions: a chemically-informed benchmark for OOD performance on common molecular property prediction tasks. We evaluate over 150 model-task combinations to benchmark deep learning models on OOD performance. Overall, we find that no existing model achieves strong generalization across all tasks: even the top-performing model exhibited an average OOD error 3x higher than in-distribution. Current chemical foundation models do not show strong OOD extrapolation, while models with high inductive bias can perform well on OOD tasks with simple, specific properties. We perform extensive ablation experiments, highlighting how data generation, pre-training, hyperparameter optimization, model architecture, and molecular representation impact OOD performance. Developing models with strong OOD generalization is a new frontier challenge in chemical ML. This open-source benchmark is available at https://github.com/FLASK-LLNL/BOOM

Although generative models hold promise for discovering molecules with optimized desired properties, they often fail to suggest synthesizable molecules that improve upon the properties of the structures represented in the training distribution. We find that this limitation arises not only from the molecule generation process itself, but also from the poor generalization capabilities of molecular property predictors. We address this challenge by creating a closed-loop molecule generation pipeline with iterative retraining on new quantum chemical simulation data. Compared against static, single-pass generative modeling approaches, only our closed-loop iterative workflow generates molecules with properties extending beyond the training distribution (up to 0.44 standard deviations beyond the original range) and achieves a 79% improvement in out-of-distribution molecule classification accuracy. Furthermore, by conditioning molecular generation on thermodynamic stability data obtained during the iterative loop, the proportion of stable and hence potentially synthesizable molecules generated is 3.5x higher than the next-best model.