Temporal difference learning adapts to incomplete coverage: an oracle inequality over subgraphs

We analyze the variance of temporal difference (TD) learning using the phased setting with tabular representation, and show that one of the mechanisms behind its ability to reduce variance is by effectively aggregating over a larger number of independent trajectories. Based on this insight, we demonstrate that (1) the variance of TD is asymptotically bounded from above by Monte Carlo (MC) estimators, and (2) shorter horizon updates incurs less variance for a fixed number of samples. Beyond TD, we show that Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE), a method for estimating the advantage function, can be seen as a type of regression-adjusted control variate, which achieves a tighter bound on the variance compared to TD in the large-sample limit. Finally, we numerically illustrate the behaviors of these estimators with carefully designed environments.

We investigate the statistical properties of Temporal Difference (TD) learning with Polyak-Ruppert averaging, arguably one of the most widely used algorithms in reinforcement learning, for the task of estimating the parameters of the optimal linear approximation to the value function. Assuming independent samples, we make three theoretical contributions that improve upon the current state-of-the-art results: (i) we establish refined high-dimensional Berry-Esseen bounds over the class of convex sets, achieving faster rates than the best known results, and (ii) we propose and analyze a novel, computationally efficient online plug-in estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix; (iii) we derive sharper high probability convergence guarantees that depend explicitly on the asymptotic variance and hold under weaker conditions than those adopted in the literature. These results enable the construction of confidence regions and simultaneous confidence intervals for the linear parameters of the value function approximation, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. We demonstrate the applicability of our theoretical findings through numerical experiments.

Temporal difference (TD) learning is a fundamental algorithm for estimating value functions in reinforcement learning. Recent finite-time analyses of TD with linear function approximation quantify its theoretical convergence rate. However, they often require setting the algorithm parameters using problem-dependent quantities that are difficult to estimate in practice -- such as the minimum eigenvalue of the feature covariance ($ω$) or the mixing time of the underlying Markov chain ($τ_{\text{mix}}$). In addition, some analyses rely on nonstandard and impractical modifications, exacerbating the gap between theory and practice. To address these limitations, we use an exponential step-size schedule with the standard TD(0) algorithm. We analyze the resulting method under two sampling regimes: independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sampling from the stationary distribution, and the more practical Markovian sampling along a single trajectory. In the i.i.d.\ setting, the proposed algorithm does not require knowledge of problem-dependent quantities such as $ω$, and attains the optimal bias-variance trade-off for the last iterate. In the Markovian setting, we propose a regularized TD(0) algorithm with an exponential step-size schedule. The resulting algorithm achieves a comparable convergence rate to prior works, without requiring projections, iterate averaging, or knowledge of $τ_{\text{mix}}$ or $ω$.