Explainable Bayesian deep learning through input-skip Latent Binary Bayesian Neural Networks

Neural network compression and interpretability remain open challenges in modern deep learn- ing, where billion-parameter architectures deliver impressive accuracy at the cost of trans- parency, computational efficiency, and reliable uncertainty quantification. This paper introduces Neural Atom Prevalence (NAP), a principled Bayesian framework for structured node-level model selection in feedforward neural networks. NAP introduces the neural atom (activation unit) and functions as a hybrid method operating through a four-phase pipeline: Bayesian Lottery Ticket (BLT) identification via Iterative Magnitude Pruning (IMP), soft variational training of the Spike and Slab Independent Gaussian (SS-IG) model, Poisson-Binomial (PB) optimal layer-size selection, and Bayesian fine-tuning to produce a sparse, stable, interpretable, and accurate model. Extensive empirical validation across simulated nonlinear regression, two UCI benchmark datasets (Concrete, YearPredictionMSD), and the MNIST image classification task demonstrates that NAP achieves state-of-the-art structural sparsity, reducing active nodes to as few as 8% of the original dense architecture on MNIST, while well-calibrated probabilisti- cally: the aleatoric-epistemic uncertainty decomposition reveals that model ignorance accounts for only 3 to 4% of total predictive variance across all experiments, and regression reliability diagrams confirm a near-nominal predictive interval coverage (93.4% observed against a 95% target). These results establish NAP as a reliable, theoretically grounded, and computation- ally tractable solution to the simultaneous pursuit of sparsity, accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (Regulation 2024/1689), fully applicable to high-risk systems from August 2026, creates urgent demand for AI architectures that are simultaneously trustworthy, transparent, and feasible to deploy on resource-constrained edge devices. Brain-like neural networks built on the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) formalism have re-emerged as a credible alternative to backpropagation-driven deep learning. They deliver state-of-the-art unsupervised representation learning, neuromorphic-friendly sparsity, and existing FPGA implementations that target edge deployment. Despite this momentum, no systematic framework exists for explaining BCPNN decisions -- a gap the present paper fills. We argue that BCPNN is, in the sense of Rudin's interpretable-by-design agenda, an inherently transparent model whose architectural primitives map directly onto established explainable-AI (XAI) families. We make four contributions. First, we propose the first XAI taxonomy for BCPNN. It maps weights, biases, hypercolumn posteriors, structural-plasticity usage scores, attractor dynamics, and input-reconstruction populations onto attribution, prototype, concept, counterfactual, and mechanistic explanation modalities. Second, we introduce sixteen architecture-level explanation primitives (P1--P16), several without analogue in standard ANNs. We provide closed-form algorithms for computing each from quantities the model already maintains. Third, we introduce five design-time Configuration-as-Explanation primitives (Config-P1 to Config-P5) that treat BCPNN hyperparameter choices as an auditable pre-deployment explanation artifact. Fourth, we sketch a roadmap for integration into industrial IoT deployments and discuss EU AI Act alignment, edge feasibility, and Industry 5.0 implications.

We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency. Our method combines the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference with the scalability of deep ensembles, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates that enable its use not only for standalone prediction but also as a component within broader learning systems. To achieve these goals, our work relies on three key design components: (i) low-dimensional ensemble representation: predictions are expressed as a combination of a small number of trained neural predictors, enabling scalable inference whose cost depends on ensemble size rather than dataset size; (ii) closed-form Bayesian aggregation: ensemble predictions are combined using Bayesian linear regression, yielding interpretable posterior weights and calibrated uncertainty without approximate inference; and (iii) Independent ensemble training: multiple neural networks are trained separately, producing diverse predictive representations that improve robustness and uncertainty calibration. Empirical results on standard regression benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive predictive performance while maintaining reliable uncertainty estimates across settings.