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15 papers in the last four weeks, up 400% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. MECHVAR: Variance-Guided Mechanism Discrimination for Autonomous Machine Learning Experiment Selection

    Oct 1, 2026Yifan GuoMle-Bench LiteBayesian Experimental Design

    Stony Brook University

  2. Rethinking Probability-Based Reinforcement Learning From Posterior Concentration

    Oct 1, 2026Shiu-Hong Kao, Yubo Zhao, Zhenyu Tian +3Reinforcement Learning With Verifiable RewardFrictive Policy Optimization

    National University of Singapore · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · University of Science and Technology of China

  3. Estimation of the Label-Noise Transition Matrix with Performance Guarantees via Selective Classification

    Sep 30, 2026Xabier de Juan, Santiago Mazuelas, Yilun Zhu +1Noisy LabelsFinite-Sample

    Basque Center of Applied Mathematics (BCAM) · IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science · Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Michigan

  4. Amortized Data Borrowing with Exchangeability-Aware Neural Posterior Estimation

    Sep 30, 2026Chin-Hung Huang, JooChul Lee, Huan HePosteriorCovariate Shift

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics Auburn University

  5. AnswerMap: Faithful Spatial Interpretability of VLMs from Answer Posteriors

    Sep 28, 2026Mohamed Eltahir, Fardows Adam, Duaa M. Tahir +6AnswerPosterior

    King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia · Department of Computer Science, Edge Hill University, Ormskirk, England

  6. Simulation-Based Quantum System Inference with Neural Posterior Estimation

    Sep 28, 2026Hang Zou, Anton Frisk Kockum, Martin Rahm +1PosteriorPhysics-Informed Learning

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Microtechnology and Nanoscience, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden

  7. MaPP: A Unified Marginalized Posterior-Predictive Framework for Data-Efficient RLVR

    Sep 28, 2026Yangyang Ren, Haodong Zhu, Sheng Xu +4Reinforcement Learning With Verifiable RewardPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Beihang University · Zhongguancun Academy · Communication University of China +4

  8. GPARA: Graph-Posterior-Aligned Refinement and Active Acquisition for Grounding Diffusion Priors

    Sep 28, 2026Wangqian Chen, Hao Wang, Yumeng Zhang +3Diffusion PriorsDiffusion Sampling

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

  9. Prior-Amortized In-Context Bayesian Inference for Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models

    Sep 21, 2026Alex Kipnis, Marcel Binz, Eric SchulzBayesian InferenceGeneralized Linear Model

    Institute for Human-Centered AI, Helmholtz Munich, Germany

  10. PosteriorBench: From Point Estimates to Posterior Matching in Evaluating Generative Inverse Solvers

    Sep 17, 2026Jiachen Yao, Zi-Siang Hsu, Xi Deng +5Bayesian Inverse ProblemsPosterior Sampling

    California Institute of Technology · National Taiwan University · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory +3

  11. Spatial-Semantic Uncertainty in VLM-Based Target Search: Balancing Exploration and Identification

    Sep 17, 2026Alkesh K. Srivastava, Jonathan Diller, Vijay Kumar +1Vision-Language NavigationLow-Latency Latent Planning

    Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, 19122 USA · University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104 USA

  12. The Free Inference Dimension: Complexity Measure for Zero-Collision Navigation under Hypothesis Mixtures

    Sep 15, 2026Luiz Carlos Castro Guedes, Edward Hermann HaeuslerCollision-Free TrajectoriesProbabilistic Inference

    Departamento de Informática – PUC-Rio, Brazil · Seção de Engenharia de Computação – Instituto Militar de Engenharia, Brazil

  13. Certified Uncertainty Propagation in One-Shot Federated Bayesian Models via Posterior Event Transport

    Sep 14, 2026Mahyar Mohammadi, Mohammad Hossein Badiei, Abolfazl Yaghmaei +1Bayesian Neural NetworksFinite-Sample Certificates

    School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, 1417614411, Iran · School of Computer Science, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), P.O. Box 19395-5746, Tehran, Iran

  14. GRPO-QPS: Target-Preserving Reinforcement Learning for Quantum Posterior Sampling

    Sep 13, 2026Yufeng Wang, Parivesh Priye, Lu Wei +1Posterior SamplingPosterior

    Stony Brook University · Georgia Institute of Technology · Westlake University

  15. Neural Posterior Estimation for Tomographic Weak Lensing Mass Mapping

    Sep 7, 2026Tim White, Shreyas Chandrashekaran, Camille Avestruz +2CosmologyPosterior

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan · Department of Physics, University of Michigan

  16. EPIC: Explicit Posterior Item Conditioning for Semantic ID Diffusion Recommendation

    Sep 3, 2026Tuan-Binh Tran, Thanh Tam Nguyen, Quoc Viet Hung Nguyen +3Real-World Content Recommendation ProblemRecommendation

    College of Engineering and Computer Science VinUniversity Hanoi, Vietnam · School of Information and Communication Technology Griffith University Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia · Department of Computer Science Aalborg University Copenhagen, Denmark

  17. Posterior Tempering Explains Variance Inflation in Linear and Generalized Linear Thompson Sampling

    Sep 2, 2026Prateek Jaiswal, Debdeep Pati, Anirban Bhattacharya +1Thompson Sampling\Widetilde{\Mathcal{O}}(\Sqrt{T})$ Regret

    Daniels School of Business, Purdue University. · Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison. · Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University.

  18. A Posterior-Dynamics Framework for Imaging Inverse Problems with Pretrained Diffusion Priors

    Aug 15, 2026Zhaoqiang Liu, Tongyao Pang, Ruibing Wang +1Diffusion PriorsBayesian Inverse Problems

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China · Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Shuangqing Complex, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

  19. Path-dependent Discrete Amortized Inference

    Aug 9, 2026Tiago da Silva, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Salem LahlouMarkov Decision ProcessesPosterior

    1MBZUAI · University of Edinburgh · 3CIFAR Fellow

  20. Private Generative Bootstrap via Blocking

    Aug 3, 2026Jinwon Sohn, Veronika RočkováModel-Based BootstrapBayesian

    Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

  21. Identifying Informative Environments for Cognition Parameter Inference via Bayesian Experimental Design

    Jul 30, 2026Manisha Dubey, Rimvydas Rubavicius, N. Siddharth +1Bayesian Experimental DesignPosterior

    School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom

  22. PYPM-GGD: Pitman-Yor Process Mixture with Generalized Gaussian Density using ADAM

    Jul 27, 2026Kart-Leong LimVariational InferenceAdam

    Institute of Microelectronics, A*Star Singapore

  23. Verbalized Particle Posterior: Bayesian Inference over Natural Language Hypotheses

    Jul 25, 2026Yan Zhang, Shikan Lian, Shibo LiBayesian InferenceBayesian Neural Networks

    Department of Computer Science, Florida State University

  24. GRACE: Gradient-Free Robot Action Generation via Combined Diffusion-MPPI Posterior Mean Estimation

    Jul 22, 2026Leesai Park, Jiho HOng, Sanghyun KimDiffusion PoliciesRobot Policies

    School of Mechanical Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea. · Advanced Institute of Convergence Technology (AICT), Suwon, Republic of Korea.

  25. Sophisticated Policies from Epistemic Priors

    Jul 21, 2026Wouter W. L. Nuijten, Bert de VriesVariational InferenceEpistemic Integrity

    Eindhoven University of Technology, 5612 AP Eindhoven, the Netherlands · Lazy Dynamics, Utrecht, the Netherlands

  26. A Bayesian Framework for Built-in Input Dimension Reduction for Gaussian Process Modeling

    Jul 21, 2026Eric Herrison Gyamfi, Emily L. Kang, Bledar A. Konomi +1Gaussian ProcessDimensionality Reduction

    Division of Statistics and Data Science, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH · Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

  27. Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posterior

    Jul 21, 2026Garrett Baker, Vinayak Pathak, Daniel Murfet +1PosteriorTransformer Architectures

    Timaeus · CORAL · Monash University

  28. Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

    Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonLarge Language Model UncertaintyCalibrated Uncertainty

    Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA

  29. Partially Correlated Verifier Cascades in LLM Harnesses: Concave Log-Odds, Polynomial Reliability, and Blind-Spot Ceilings

    Jul 15, 2026Jiangang HanVerification FrameworkFinite-Sample Certificates

    Independent researcher

  30. Posterior Variance Is a Constraint Map, Not an Error Map: Closed-Form Uncertainty for Radiative Gaussian Splatting in Sparse-View CT

    Jul 15, 2026Chulin Zhao, Yiran Xu, Shu LiuCalibrated UncertaintyGaussian Splatting

    1Dundee International Institute, Central South University · 2Central South University

  31. DP-BOA: Dirichlet-Process Birth-or-Assign for On-the-Fly Category Discovery

    Jul 15, 2026Peiyan Gu, Zixin Teng, Xuming HeGeneralized Category DiscoveryClassifier

    ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Vision and Imaging

  32. Dynamic Online Processor-Native Inference for State Estimation

    Jul 13, 2026Orestis KaparounakisBayesian FilteringParticle Filters

  33. Fixed-Protocol Amortized MPS Tomography with Conformalized Predictive Uncertainty

    Jul 13, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1QubitDistributional Fidelity

    1RIKEN iTHEMS · 2RIKEN AIP · 3South China University of Technology +1

  34. Robot Trajectron V3: A Probabilistic Shared Control Framework for SE(3) Manipulation

    Jul 10, 2026Pinhao Song, Zhongxi Li, Ze Fu +2Robotic ManipulationRobot Systems

    KU Leuven, Dept. Mechanical Engineering, Research unit Robotics, Automation and Mechatronics, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium. · KU Leuven, Dept. Electrical Engineering, Research unit Processing Speech and Images, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium.

  35. Efficient Bayesian Deep Ensembles via Analytic Predictive Inference

    Jul 7, 2026Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard, Marie Maros, Jaesung LeeBayesian Neural NetworksEnsemble

    Wm Michael Barnes ’64 Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Texas A&M University College Station, TX, USA

  36. When Does In-Context Search Help? A Sampling-Complexity Theory of Reflection-Driven Reasoning

    Jul 7, 2026Yotam Wolf, Noam Wies, Amnon ShashuaLLM Reasoning StrategiesIn-Context

    The Hebrew University

  37. λ\mathbfλ-VAE: Variance Equalization for Posterior Collapse

    Jul 6, 2026Girum DemisseConditional Variational AutoencoderCollapse

    Microsoft African Development Center Nairobi Kenya

  38. FUSE: FK-Steered Multi-Modal Flow Matching for Efficient Simulation-Based Posterior Estimation

    Jul 6, 2026Weichen Qin, Yufan Xie, Peihao Wang +8PosteriorContrastive Flow Matching

    ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA · Center for Gravitational Wave Experiment, National Microgravity Laboratory, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China +2

  39. Geometry-Aware Bayesian Quantification via Compositional Data Analysis

    Jul 6, 2026Alejandro Moreo, Pablo González, Juan José del CozDensity Ratio EstimationMulticlass Classification

    Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell’Informazione Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Pisa, Italy · Artificial Intelligence Center University of Oviedo Asturias, Spain

  40. Mixture-of-Gaussians-Guided Schedule Design for Brownian Bridge Diffusion Models

    Jul 3, 2026Ron Levi, Michael EladDiffusion BridgesSchrödinger Bridges

    Department of Computer Science Technion, Israel

  41. Sparsity-Inducing Divergence Losses for Biometric Verification

    Jun 30, 2026Dimitrios Koutsianos, Ladislav Mošner, Yannis Panagakis +1Bregman DivergencesSpeaker

    Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece · Archimedes/Athena Research Center, Greece · Omilia, Greece +1

  42. Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression

    Jun 30, 2026Hugo Nicolas, Olivier Le MaîtreGaussian ProcessQuantile Regression

    PLATON, CMAP · Inria, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · CNRS, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France

  43. Transformer Architectures as Complete Bayes Processes: A Formal Proof in the Measure-Theoretic Kernel Framework

    Jun 29, 2026Haobo YangTransformer ArchitecturesBayesian

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, SUSTech University

  44. Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition for Gaussian Process Regression

    Jun 27, 2026Jian Xu, Artur Miroszewski, John Paisley +2Quantum KernelsGaussian Process

    RIKEN iTHEMS · RIKEN AIP · European Space Agency +2

  45. Measured-Subspace Consistency: A Plug-and-Play Operator for Diffusion Posterior Sampling in Accelerated MRI Reconstruction

    Jun 26, 2026Junhyeok Lee, Kyu Sung ChoiMagnetic Resonance Imaging ReconstructionPosterior Sampling

    Interdisciplinary Program in Cancer Biology, Seoul National University College of Medicine · Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital · Healthcare AI Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital

  46. Rethinking Training & Inference for Forecasting: Linking Winner-Take-All back to GMMs

    Jun 24, 2026Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2Trajectory ForecastingPosterior

    Cornell University · Stanford University · Boston University

  47. An Analysis of Posterior Collapse, Parameterization and Initialization in Variational Deep Gaussian Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Francisco Javier Sáez-Maldonado, Juan Maroñas, Daniel Hernández-LobatoVariational InferenceVariational

    Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Universidad de Granada Granada, Spain · Department of Quantitative Methods CUNEF Universidad Madrid, Spain · Machine Learning Group at Universidad Autónoma de Madrid +1

  48. Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

    Jun 24, 2026James Odgers, Ben Riegler, Siddharth Swaroop +1Variational InferencePosterior

    University of Technology Nuremberg (UTN) · Helmholtz AI · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) +2

  49. Fast and Slow Variational Continual Learning

    Jun 22, 2026Subarnaduti Paul, Yohan Jung, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan +3Replay-Based Continual LearningAdaptive Optimizers

    Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany · Department of Computer Science & AI, Jeonbuk National University, Republic of Korea · Department of Computer Science, TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany +3

  50. CoRDE: Concept-Prior Routed Diffusion Experts for Structural Generalization in Robot Manipulation

    Jun 20, 2026Haidong Huang, Xixin Zhao, Yaohua Zhou +5Diffusion PoliciesMultimodal Action Distributions

    College of Information Science and Technology, Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo, Ningbo 315200, China · Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China · Robotics and Autonomous Systems Thrust, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511453, China +2

  51. ShuffleFlow: Scalable Posterior Inference for Bayesian Inverse Imaging

    Jun 19, 2026Tianao Li, Tjitske Starkenburg, Yu Sun +1Image ReconstructionBayesian Inverse Problems

    Department of Computer Science, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208

  52. Bayesian Model Averaging under Predictor Redundancy via Density-Ratio Posterior Compression

    Jun 19, 2026Hanqing Li, Xuewen Lu, Yuting ChenPosterior Predictive DistributionPosterior

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Calgary Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Statistics Eastern Kentucky University Richmond, KY 40475, USA

  53. BayesFP: Posterior Estimation for Flow-Based Policies via Feynman-Kac Sampling

    Jun 19, 2026Sreevardhan Sirigiri, Weiming Zhi, Fabio RamosFlow PoliciesDiffusion Policies

    School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney, Australia · Australian Centre For Robotics, The University of Sydney, Australia · College of Connected Computing, Vanderbilt University, TN, USA. +1

  54. Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling

    Jun 16, 2026Tomasz MaciazekStandard Differential-PrivacyGaussian Process

    School of Mathematics, University of Bristol

  55. Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions

    Jun 15, 2026Ankit DasTwinsBehavioral Foundation Models

    Twinning Labs · Twinning Labs, Inc.

  56. Amortized mean-shift interacting particles

    Jun 14, 2026Ali SiahkoohiPosterior SamplingPosterior

    Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida

  57. Structured Nonparametric Variational Inference for Dependent Latent Modeling

    Jun 13, 2026Yuda Shao, Zhiling Gu, Shan YuVariational InferenceLatent Variable

    Department of Statistics, University of Virginia · Department of Biostatistics, Yale University

  58. Semantic DLM+: Improving Diffusion Language Models through Bias-variance Trade-off in Transition Kernel Design

    Jun 13, 2026Keyue Jiang, Yuxiang Wang, Yanan Zhao +7Diffusion Language ModelsDiffusion Models

    Alibaba Group · Fudan University · Nanyang Technological University +1

  59. Simplex-Constrained Sparse Bagging: Transitioning from Uniform Priors to Sparse Posteriors in Ensemble Learning

    Jun 11, 2026Meher Sai Preetam Madiraju, Meher Bhaskar MadirajuTree EnsemblesEnsemble

  60. PolicyGuard: Towards Test-time and Step-level Adversary (Backdoor) Defense for Reinforcement Learning Agent

    Jun 11, 2026Junfeng Guo Heng HuangOffline Reinforcement LearningAdversarial Robustness

    Computer Science, University of Maryland College Park, USA.