Efficient Bayesian Deep Ensembles via Analytic Predictive Inference

The deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical domains demands reliable estimates of predictive confidence, yet conventional architectures lack principled uncertainty quantification. This survey provides a structured, critical review of methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in deep learning, scoped to ensemble-based and approximate Bayesian approaches and the measures used to summarize their outputs. Relative to existing UQ surveys, our contribution is depth on efficient ensemble approximations and single-pass methods, and a unified treatment that separates the method producing a predictive distribution from the measure that summarizes its uncertainty. We organize methods into five families: Bayesian neural networks, Monte Carlo Dropout, deep ensembles, efficient ensemble approximations, and last-layer or single-pass approaches. We situate adjacent work on evidential and prior networks, conformal prediction, and post-hoc calibration, together with the decision-time tasks of out-of-distribution detection and selective prediction. For each, we examine theoretical motivation, implementation, empirical performance, and limitations. We then review ensemble diversity theory and uncertainty measures and their decompositions, contrasting the entropy decomposition with pairwise divergence measures, and consolidate evaluation methodology so that our qualitative comparisons share a common basis. We close with a brief treatment of uncertainty in large language models and open research directions, including efficient epistemic measures for classification, last-layer diversity, diversity and calibration under shift, and hybrid architectures.

Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modeling. Existing methods for uncertainty modeling face a fundamental dilemma: Bayesian approaches provide principled estimates but remain computationally prohibitive, while efficient second-order predictors lack rigorous connections between their specific objectives and epistemic uncertainty quantification. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Dirichlet-approximated possibilistic posterior predictions (DAPPr), a principled framework grounded in possibility theory. We define a possibilistic posterior over parameters, project it to the prediction space via supremum operators, and approximate the projected posterior using learnable Dirichlet possibility functions. This projection-and-approximation strategy yields a simple training objective with closed-form solutions. Despite its simplicity, extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks show that DAPPr achieves competitive or superior uncertainty quantification performance over state-of-the-art second-order predictors while maintaining both principled derivation and computational efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/MaxwellYaoNi/DAPPr.

Modeling natural phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs) often provides highly accurate predictions. However, ANNs often suffer from over-parameterization, complicating interpretation and raising uncertainty issues. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) address the latter by representing weights as probability distributions, allowing for predictive uncertainty evaluation. Latent binary Bayesian neural networks (LBBNNs) further handle structural uncertainty and sparsify models by removing redundant weights. This article advances LBBNNs by enabling covariates to skip to any succeeding layer or be excluded, simplifying networks and clarifying input impacts on predictions. This further allows us to learn simpler structures (e.g., linear or even constant intercept only models) when appropriate. Furthermore, the input-skip LBBNN (ISLaB) approach reduces network density significantly compared to standard LBBNNs, achieving over 99% reduction for small networks and over 99.9% for larger ones, while still maintaining high predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification. For example, on MNIST, we reached 97% accuracy and great calibration with just 935 weights, reaching state-of-the-art for compression of neural networks. Furthermore, the proposed method accurately identifies the true covariates and adjusts for system non-linearity. The main contribution is the introduction of active paths, enhancing directly designed global and local explanations within the LBBNN framework. The latter are exact with theoretical guarantees and do not require post hoc external tools.