Authors: Mattie Fellows, Clarisse Wibault, Uljad Berdica, Johannes Forkel, Maike Osborne, Jakob N. Foerster
Organizations: Foerster Lab for AI Research (FLAIR), Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford · Machine Learning Research Group, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford
Offline RL (ORL) promises safe and sample-efficient deployment but existing methods rely on undocumented online interactions for hyperparameter tuning and lack reliable fully offline estimates of initial online performance. We introduce SOReL, a fully offline Bayesian model-based RL method that learns a posterior over dynamics, estimates policy value via predictive uncertainty, and enables complete offline hyperparameter selection. We further propose TOReL, which extends this tuning framework to arbitrary model-free and model-based ORL algorithms. We provide a regret analysis showing that Bayesian offline RL achieves the minimax-optimal parametric rate under standard regularity conditions. Together, our methods establish a practical and theoretically grounded framework for fully offline RL.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies from pre-collected datasets. A bottleneck of this paradigm is managing epistemic uncertainty, which arises from limited data coverage (sample-level) and the ambiguity in identifying transition dynamics from finite data (model-level). To provide a unified quantification of these uncertainties, Bayesian RL has been proposed by treating the dynamics model as a random variable and maintaining a corresponding belief. Despite its theoretical appeal, policy optimization in Bayesian RL remains computationally challenging as it requires solving composite objectives with expectations. Prior methods either employ search-based techniques with poor computational scalability or impose restrictive posterior assumptions that sacrifice the adaptability of Bayesian RL. To address these limitations, we propose Posterior Hybrid Bayesian Belief (PhyB), which reformulates the expectation as a convex combination over a subset of dynamics models. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the objective discrepancy induced by this approximation remains bounded. Based on PhyB, we develop an iterative regularized policy optimization algorithm that provides metric-agnostic guarantees for monotonic improvement until convergence. Empirical results demonstrate that PhyB achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks.
Background: Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables effective policies to be trained from large, previously collected datasets and subsequently improved through limited online interaction. This offline-to-online RL (O2O-RL) paradigm is particularly promising in nonstationary domains where interaction is costly or potentially hazardous. Standard O2O-RL pipelines train multiple candidate policies offline, evaluate them using off-policy or online evaluation, and then deploy and fine-tune the policy with the highest estimated value. However, as in offline pretraining, fine-tuning performance is highly sensitive to the choice of algorithm and hyperparameters, making it risky to commit to a single policy. Objectives: We study active policy selection for fine-tuning under a limited interaction budget in O2O-RL settings. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address this problem. Methods: We formulate the problem by identifying a fundamental trade-off between allocating online interactions to policy evaluation, which helps identify high-performing policies, and allocating them to fine-tuning, which improves policy performance. We then propose an approach that balances this trade-off by actively selecting policies for fine-tuning based on upper-confidence bounds on their future performance. These bounds are derived from locally linear performance forecasts fitted to observations obtained through online evaluation. Results: Across a diverse range of experiments, the proposed approach consistently outperforms existing O2O-RL baselines. Conclusions: Actively selecting and fine-tuning policies uses limited online interaction budgets more effectively than either committing to a single policy or dividing the budget equally among all policies. Our framework also advances offline RL toward practical deployment in real-world systems where online interaction is costly or risky.
Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a practical paradigm that leverages offline datasets for pretraining and online interactions for fine-tuning. However, its empirical behavior is highly inconsistent: design choices of online fine-tuning that work well in one setting can fail completely in another. Guided by the stability--plasticity principle, we propose a framework that can explain this inconsistency: We argue that efficient fine-tuning must preserve the utility of the stronger offline prior, whether that is the pretrained policy or the offline dataset, while maintaining sufficient plasticity. This perspective identifies three regimes of online fine-tuning, each requiring distinct stability properties. We validate this framework through a large-scale empirical study, finding that the results strongly align with its predictions in 45 out of 63 cases, with only 3 opposite mismatches. This work provides a framework for guiding design choices in offline-to-online RL based on the relative performance of the offline dataset and the pretrained policy.