Stochastic Siamese MAE Pretraining for Longitudinal Medical Images

Generative modeling frameworks have emerged as an effective approach to capture high-dimensional image distributions from large datasets without requiring domain-specific knowledge, a capability essential for disease progression modeling. Recent generative approaches have attempted to capture progression by mapping images to a latent space and guiding representations to generate follow-up images from previous time points. However, these methods impose constraints on distribution learning, resulting in latent spaces with limited controllability for generating follow-up images without paired subject-specific longitudinal guidance. In order to enable controlled movements in the latent representational space and generate progression images from a previous time-point image without subject-specific guidance, we introduce a conditionable Diffusion Auto-encoder framework that forms a compact latent space capturing high-level semantics and providing means to control generation. Our approach leverages this latent space to condition and apply controlled shifts to the representations of previous time-point images by isolating progression and subject identity information for generating follow-up images. The shifts are implicitly guided by correlating with progression attributes and constraining to Alzheimer's disease specific regions, without paired longitudinal guidance. We validate the generations through image quality metrics, volumetric progression analysis, and downstream tasks in Alzheimer's disease datasets from different sources. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach for Alzheimer's progression modeling and longitudinal image generation.

Latent diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models in medical imaging, enabling the synthesis of high quality brain magnetic resonance imaging scans. In particular, predicting the evolution of a patients brain can aid in early intervention, prognosis, and treatment planning. In this study, we introduce CLIMB, Controllable Longitudinal brain Image generation via state space based latent diffusion model, an advanced framework for modeling temporal changes in brain structure. CLIMB is designed to model the structural evolution of the brain structure over time, utilizing a baseline MRI scan and its acquisition age as foundational inputs. Additionally, multiple conditional variables, including projected age, gender, disease status, genetic information, and brain structure volumes, are incorporated to enhance the temporal modeling of anatomical changes. Unlike existing LDM methods that rely on self attention modules, which effectively capture contextual information from input images but are computationally expensive, our approach leverages state space, a state space model architecture that substantially reduces computational overhead while preserving high-quality image synthesis. Furthermore, we introduce a Gaussian-aligned autoencoder that extracts latent representations conforming to prior distributions without the sampling noise inherent in conventional variational autoencoders. We train and evaluate our proposed model on the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, consisting of 6,306 MRI scans from 1,390 participants. By comparing generated images with real MRI scans, CLIMB achieves a structural similarity index of 0.9433, demonstrating notable improvements over existing methods.

Modelling how a disease progresses over time requires longitudinal imaging cohorts, which are scarce and small, whereas cross-sectional data -- one image per participant -- is abundant. Self-supervised pre-training on such data offers a way to bridge this gap, but it is unclear which strategy best supports progression modelling, or how that answer depends on the amount of labelled longitudinal data. We study this for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), pre-training encoders on the large cross-sectional NAKO cohort and predicting time to late AMD on the longitudinal AREDS dataset. We compare in-house self-supervised encoders against a general-purpose (DINOv2) and a domain-specific (RETFound) foundation model, across contrastive, masked-autoencoding, and self-distillation objectives, under frozen and fine-tuned protocols, and across labelled training sets from 100 to 32,250 examples. Which model performs best depends on how the encoder is used. When the encoder is frozen and labels are few -- the regime typical of longitudinal cohorts -- pre-trained representations reach clinically reasonable discrimination from a few hundred labelled samples, while models trained from scratch do not; this advantage fades under fine-tuning. Transfer is governed by the self-supervision objective rather than corpus scale or domain match, so that an encoder pre-trained on a modest cross-sectional cohort matches or exceeds a far larger in-domain foundation model. Together, these results offer a practical recipe for building progression models where longitudinal data is scarce: a frozen self-supervised encoder with a lightweight survival head.