RiskCueBench: Benchmarking Anticipatory Reasoning from Early Risk Cues in Video-Language Models

Between the first visible sign of danger and the moment an accident occurs, there is often a window where intervention remains possible. Video-capable multimodal large language models (MLLMs) could serve as always-on safety monitors that issue warnings during this window. Yet current benchmarks do not test this ability: they rely on static inputs, ignore timing precision, and omit false-positive measurement on safe scenes. We present PaSBench-Video, a 740-video benchmark with 481 risk and 259 no-risk videos across four domains: driving, healthcare, daily life, and industrial production. Risk videos are annotated with frame-level risk onset and accident boundaries. A model must observe the video causally and produce a warning that is both temporally calibrated and content-correct. Testing 13 MLLMs, we find that no model exceeds 20.0% on our strictest metric, and recall is tightly coupled with false-positive rate, with Pearson correlation 0.64: higher detection comes only at the cost of triggering warnings on the majority of safe clips. Performance splits sharply by domain: models achieve moderate recall at low false-positive rates in daily life, where risks are inherently anomalous, yet fire indiscriminately in driving, where routine and hazardous scenes look alike. These results indicate that current models rely on scene-level activity cues rather than reasoning about emerging harm.

Reliable visual safety understanding in real-world scenarios demands more than just object recognition; it requires causal reasoning under epistemic uncertainty. While Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) demonstrate impressive semantic alignment on standard benchmarks, they often struggle to distinguish between superficial correlation and genuine forensic logic when grounded in the dynamic, partially observable nature of first-person experiences. Existing evaluations, dominated by third-person surveillance footage and binary classification metrics, fail to expose this cognitive gap. To address this, we introduce EgoSafe-Bench, a benchmark specifically designed to probe forensic reasoning in egocentric safety scenarios. It comprises 12,000 unique evaluation samples, generated by pairing each of the 3,000 video clips with a QA chain governed by our proposed Hierarchical Reasoning Evaluation (HRE) protocol. Unlike standard benchmarks, HRE mandates a rigorous reasoning trajectory from initial feature anchoring to blind-spot deduction and intent inference, thereby enforcing logical consistency and penalizing shortcut-based predictions. Extensive evaluations of state-of-the-art LVLMs (e.g., Qwen3-VL, Gemini, VideoLLaMA 3) reveal a significant perception-reasoning decoupling: models often achieve high descriptive scores but exhibit notable fragility in causal reasoning and logical closure. Our work provides both a challenging dataset and a systematic evaluation framework to foster the development of logically robust video understanding systems.

Accident anticipation aims to predict impending collisions from dashcam videos and trigger early alerts. Existing methods rely on binary supervision with manually annotated "anomaly onset" frames, which are subjective and inconsistent, leading to inaccurate risk estimation. In contrast, we propose RiskProp, a novel collision-anchored self-supervised risk propagation paradigm for early accident anticipation, which removes the need for anomaly onset annotations and leverages only the reliably annotated collision frame. RiskProp models temporal risk evolution through two observation-driven losses: first, since future frames contain more definitive evidence of an impending accident, we introduce a future-frame regularization loss that uses the model's next-frame prediction as a soft target to supervise the current frame, enabling backward propagation of risk signals; second, inspired by the empirical trend of rising risk before accidents, we design an adaptive monotonic constraint to encourage a non-decreasing progression over time. Experiments on CAP and Nexar demonstrate that RiskProp achieves state-of-the-art performance and produces smoother, more discriminative risk curves, improving both early anticipation and interpretability.