Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed for decision-support across multiple domains. We ask whether these models favor artificial intelligence (AI) itself. We examine this question through three experiments. First, in open-ended advice across investment, study, career, and startup domains, AI is prominent in most recommendation lists and is usually ranked first when it appears. Second, in salary estimations, models overestimate AI-related jobs more than they do for closely matched non-AI jobs. In a controlled follow-up, changing only the job title from the matched non-AI title to the AI-related title raises predicted salary by 10%, while all other supplied job details remain fixed. Finally, we show that the number of degrees and other credentials awarded by AI programs were 28% more overestimated than corresponding awards for matched computing programs. Overall, we show that AI is not only prominent in everyday LLM advice, but also receives systematically inflated quantitative estimates compared to non-AI cases, even against its closest disciplinary neighbors, raising concerns for high-stakes decision support.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Illustrative examples in which LLM assistants rank AI/ML first across different advisory domains, although AI is not mentioned in the prompts.
Figure 2: Progressive evaluation design. Recommendations measure descriptive AI prominence; the salary experiment combines a matched prediction error comparison with a controlled change of the job title; and the education experiment compares estimates of degrees and other credentials awarded by AI and neighboring computing programs against the observed counts.
Figure 3: AI prominence across advisory domains. Panel A shows Top-5 AI inclusion by domain; Panel B shows the earliest AI rank conditional on inclusion, where lower is earlier. Points are averaged across models, bars show hierarchical-bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, and diamonds denote the aggregate across all domains.
Figure 4: Model-specific prediction-error differences in the two benchmarked prediction experiments. Panel A reports AI vs. non-AI differences in signed salary-prediction error using matching-block fixed effects and matching-block-clustered standard errors. Panel B reports relative overestimation in the estimated number of degrees and other credentials awarded by AI programs compared with matched non-AI programs. Diamonds denote pooled estimates, circles open-weight models, and squares closed models; bars show 95% confidence intervals. Every model’s adjusted difference is positive in both experiments.
Appendix figures & tables14 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Model
Exact identifier
Model-specific configuration
Qwen3-235B
Qwen/Qwen3-235B-A22B-Instruct-2507-FP8
enable_thinking=false
Qwen3.6-27B
Qwen/Qwen3.6-27B
enable_thinking=false ; language-model-only
DeepSeek-V4-Flash
deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Flash
DeepSeek tokenizer; FP8 KV cache
Gemma-4-31B
google/gemma-4-31B-it
language-model-only
Llama-3.3-70B
meta-llama/Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct
standard instruction template
Mistral-Medium-3.5
mistralai/Mistral-Medium-3.5-128B
reasoning_effort=none ; language-model-only
Appendix
Table 1: Exact model identifiers and model-specific inference controls.
Task
Temp.
Top- p
Output cap
Open-model context limit
Recommendations
0
1
384
4,096
Salary estimates
0
1
16
4,096
Program completions
0
1
16
8,192
Title classification
0
1
16
Model default
Appendix
Table 2: Shared decoding and execution settings by task.
Scope
Inclusion, % [95% CI]
rank [95% CI]
All
75.18 [69.00, 81.09]
1.230 [1.124, 1.353]
Investment
41.45 [28.73, 54.91]
1.317 [1.134, 1.677]
Study
98.55 [94.91, 100.00]
1.074 [1.004, 1.197]
Career
61.45 [45.82, 76.36]
1.735 [1.340, 2.262]
Startup
99.27 [97.09, 100.00]
1.020 [1.000, 1.086]
Appendix
Table 3: Recommendation prominence by domain. Intervals are hierarchical-bootstrap 95% confidence intervals.
Model
Inclusion (%)
Rank
Qwen3-235B
81
1.407
Qwen3.6-27B
81
1.160
DeepSeek-V4-Flash
71
1.085
Gemma-4-31B
86
1.116
Llama-3.3-70B
67
1.612
Mistral-Medium-3.5
73
1.452
Appendix
Table 4: Recommendation prominence by model. Conditional rank is computed only among lists containing at least one AI-coded item.
Year
AI
Non-AI
Total
Blocks
FY2023
277
277
554
207
FY2024
326
326
652
185
FY2025
399
399
798
263
Total
1,002
1,002
2,004
655
Appendix
Table 5: Salary-cohort composition by source fiscal year.
Model set
Models
Prediction change [95% CI]
All models
11
+10.17 % [8.99, 11.35]
Open-weight
7
+10.54 % [9.20, 11.82]
Closed
4
+9.54 % [8.45, 10.64]
Appendix
Table 6: Results of the controlled job-title follow-up. Prediction change compares the estimate using the AI-related title with the estimate using the matched non-AI title.
Model
Effect (pp)
95% CI
p
Qwen3-235B
+5.877
[4.255, 7.499]
1.22×10−12
Qwen3.6-27B
+5.631
[3.926, 7.336]
9.58×10−11
DeepSeek-V4-Flash
+18.919
[16.433, 21.406]
2.76×10−50
Gemma-4-31B
+5.830
[4.160, 7.500]
7.85×10−12
Llama-3.3-70B
+4.624
[2.994, 6.254]
2.71×10−8
Mistral-Medium-3.5
+8.760
[7.042, 10.479]
1.67×10−23
Appendix
Table 7: Adjusted model-specific AI-minus-non-AI differences in signed salary-prediction error. Every row uses matching-block fixed effects and matching-block-clustered standard errors. Intervals are nominal 95% confidence intervals.
Estimator
Effect (pp) [95% CI]
p
Primary block fixed effects
+7.52 [6.24, 8.81]
1.92×10−30
Equal block weighting
+8.51 [6.98, 10.04]
1.32×10−25
One pair per block
+8.55 [6.94, 10.16]
1.15×10−23
Appendix
Table 8: Salary robustness to the influence of matching-block size. Effects are AI-minus-non-AI differences in signed percentage error.
CIP
Program
Group
Program-years
11.0102
Artificial Intelligence
AI
304
11.0101
Computer and Information Sciences, General
Non-AI
47
11.0103
Information Technology
Non-AI
29
11.0104
Informatics
Non-AI
9
11.0105
Human-Centered Technology Design
Non-AI
10
11.0199
Computer and Information Sciences, Other
Non-AI
8
Appendix
Table 9: AI and neighboring computing programs in the frozen program-completion cohort.
Year
AI
Non-AI
Total
2022
73
73
146
2023
97
97
194
2024
134
134
268
Total
304
304
608
Appendix
Table 10: Program-completion cohort composition by year.
Model
Effect (%)
95% CI
p
Qwen3-235B
+9.86
[ −8.30 , 31.63]
.3077
Qwen3.6-27B
+7.40
[ −5.43 , 21.98]
.2715
DeepSeek-V4-Flash
+25.70
[7.47, 47.02]
.00423
Gemma-4-31B
+22.24
[2.98, 45.11]
.0217
Llama-3.3-70B
+54.51
[31.25, 81.90]
1.74×10−7
Mistral-Medium-3.5
+73.54
[44.61, 108.26]
3.14×10−9
Appendix
Table 11: Adjusted model-specific relative overestimation for AI programs. Effects show the percentage by which the zero-adjusted prediction-to-actual ratio was higher for AI programs than for matched non-AI programs.
Non-AI comparison
n
Relative overestimation (%) [95% CI]
p
Broad computing neighbors
608
+28.47 [12.80, 46.32]
1.60×10−4
Core general computing
270
+36.99 [13.74, 65.00]
.000913
Computer Science only
84
+38.94 [5.34, 83.25]
.0199
Appendix
Table 12: Exact program-completion estimates for increasingly closely related non-AI comparison sets. Values show the adjusted percentage by which the zero-adjusted prediction-to-actual ratio was higher for AI programs than for matched non-AI programs.
Analysis
n
Blocks
Clusters
relative overestimation, % [95% CI]
Primary cohort
608
286
425
+28.47 [12.80, 46.32]
Observed prior record
462
219
318
+14.57 [0.28, 30.89]
Within institution
116
58
92
+32.56 [0.22, 75.34]
Appendix
Table 13: Program-completion sensitivity to observed prior history and exact institution identity. Values show the adjusted percentage by which the zero-adjusted prediction-to-actual ratio was higher for AI programs than for matched non-AI programs.
Year
n
Relative overestimation (%) [95% CI]
p
2022
146
+17.65 [ −10.03 , 53.85]
.2348
2023
194
+7.69 [ −11.36 , 30.83]
.4559
2024
268
+54.49 [26.60, 88.53]
1.86×10−5
Appendix
Table 14: Year-specific program-completion relative overestimation. Values show the adjusted percentage by which the zero-adjusted prediction-to-actual ratio was higher for AI programs than for matched non-AI programs; intervals are 95% confidence intervals.