Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation

As reasoning capacity and deployment scope grow in tandem, large language models (LLMs) gain the capacity to engage in behaviors that serve their own objectives, a class of risks we term Emergent Strategic Reasoning Risks (ESRRs). These include, but are not limited to, deception (intentionally misleading users or evaluators), evaluation gaming (strategically manipulating performance during safety testing), and reward hacking (exploiting misspecified objectives). Systematically understanding and benchmarking these risks remains an open challenge. To address this gap, we introduce ESRRSim, a taxonomy-driven agentic framework for automated behavioral risk evaluation. We construct an extensible risk taxonomy of 7 categories, which is decomposed into 20 subcategories. ESRRSim generates evaluation scenarios designed to elicit faithful reasoning, paired with dual rubrics assessing both model responses and reasoning traces, in a judge-agnostic and scalable architecture. Evaluation across 11 reasoning LLMs reveals substantial variation in risk profiles (detection rates ranging 14.45%-72.72%), with dramatic generational improvements suggesting models may increasingly recognize and adapt to evaluation contexts.

LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language. For this role to be viable, models must produce identical verbal descriptions for identical inputs, and select descriptions that accurately reflect the magnitude of the underlying numerical quantities. We evaluate whether nine LLMs meet these requirements within a two-stage prediction pipeline, in which an upstream model has produced probabilistic outputs characterized by their likelihood and uncertainty, and LLMs are tasked with selecting an appropriate verbal descriptor for each. We simulate predictions from an upstream model by taking samples from a Beta distribution parameterized by its mode and prior sample size. We then prompt LLMs to explain these predictions under six domain contexts and with ten temperature settings, and repeating each experiment ten times. We find that LLMs are generally consistent but miscalibrated, with substantially weaker performance on uncertainty than on likelihood tasks. Providing models with precomputed summary statistics (mode and prior sample size) reduced sensitivity to contextual framing but did not resolve the underlying miscalibration, suggesting that the bottleneck resides in the verbalization step itself. These findings indicate that current LLMs do not yet constitute reliable zero-shot standalone risk communication tools for probabilistic predictions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong potential in financial reasoning, but existing benchmarks often evaluate domain knowledge, numerical reasoning, long-context understanding, and tool use in separate settings. This limits their ability to assess realistic professional workflows that require auditable, context-grounded, and tool-executable decisions. We introduce \textbf{INS-ActBench}, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating professional actuarial capability in LLMs. INS-ActBench contains 12,050 Q&A pairs from public exams and sample questions released by 16 actuarial associations. It covers three subsets: \textbf{INS-Act-Know} for standardized actuarial knowledge, \textbf{INS-Act-Case} for long-context insurance case reasoning, and \textbf{INS-Act-Practice} for spreadsheet and R-code tasks with verifiable numerical outputs. Experiments on nine representative LLMs and human actuarial experts reveal a clear capability boundary: frontier LLMs perform strongly on standardized knowledge, but remain much weaker in case reasoning, tool-based workflows, and jurisdiction-sensitive practice. INS-ActBench provides a reproducible foundation for developing actuarial LLMs toward reliable professional assistance. The code is available at https://github.com/FDU-INS/INS-ActBench.