X-MAP: eXplainable Misclassification Analysis and Profiling for Spam and Phishing Detection

Email spam and phishing attacks remain a critical security threat. Adversaries increasingly exploit large language models to craft contextually convincing malicious messages, and existing spam detection systems often struggle to keep pace. Generalization across diverse and evolving attack scenarios is limited, which reduces effectiveness once these systems are deployed in practice. This paper introduces Adaptive Uncertainty-Routed Analysis (AURA), a multimodal email threat detection system that analyzes both the content of an email and its embedded URLs. AURA is built around two layers: the first quantifies prediction uncertainty from a URL classifier, and only ambiguous messages are escalated to a fine-tuned transformer encoder for semantic analysis. The system is evaluated on eight heterogeneous training corpora together with two held-out real-world corpora spanning a decade of adversarial campaigns. AURA reaches a macro F1-score of 0.9858 in-distribution, and on NazPhish-Eval and GuenterTrap-Eval it maintains 0.9502 and 0.9436, respectively, which is evidence of robust generalization under genuine distribution shift.

Phishing detectors built on engineered website features attain near-perfect accuracy under i.i.d.\ evaluation, yet deployment security depends on robustness to post-deployment feature manipulation. We study this gap through a cost-aware evasion framework that models discrete, monotone feature edits under explicit attacker budgets. Three diagnostics are introduced: minimal evasion cost (MEC), the evasion survival rate $S(B)$, and the robustness concentration index (RCI). On the UCI Phishing Websites benchmark (11,055 instances, 30 ternary features), Logistic Regression, Random Forests, Gradient Boosted Trees, and XGBoost all achieve $\mathrm{AUC}\ge 0.979$ under static evaluation. Under budgeted sanitization-style evasion, robustness converges across architectures: the median MEC equals 2 with full features, and over 80% of successful minimal-cost evasions concentrate on three low-cost surface features. Feature restriction improves robustness only when it removes all dominant low-cost transitions. Under strict cost schedules, infrastructure-leaning feature sets exhibit 17-19% infeasible mass for ensemble models, while the median MEC among evadable instances remains unchanged. We formalize this convergence: if a positive fraction of correctly detected phishing instances admit evasion through a single feature transition of minimal cost $c_{\min}$, no classifier can raise the corresponding MEC quantile above $c_{\min}$ without modifying the feature representation or cost model. Adversarial robustness in phishing detection is governed by feature economics rather than model complexity.

Phishing is a multi-modal threat. We present a hybrid pipeline that scores each modality with its own engine and fuses the results. Three engines are built, deployed, and independently benchmarked: a four-stage URL stack (Domain Guard, lexical model, threat intelligence, and an asymmetric L2 fusion sidecar); a generalization-hardened DistilBERT NLP classifier whose held-out real-phishing recall rises from 0.8% to 87.3%; and a threat-intelligence synchronizer with end-to-end OpenTelemetry instrumentation confirming 1:1 message conservation. A decision-level fusion stage, characterized on a 10,677-email whole-system benchmark, reaches F1=0.914 with a calibrated probabilistic-OR over URL, header, and phishing-probability channels while reducing held-out real-spam false positives to 3.6%. Because that benchmark uses proxy URL and header channels and an operating point still needing recalibration, we present it as a preliminary integrated result. For deployable detection, the limiting factor is how well a model generalizes, not how accurately it scores data drawn from its own training distribution.