Optimizing Graph Causal Classification Models: Estimating Causal Effects and Addressing Confounders

Graph data often contain noisy and spurious correlations that mask the true causal relationships, which are essential for enabling graph models to make predictions based on the underlying causal structure of the data. Dependence on spurious connections makes it challenging for traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to generalize effectively across different graphs. Furthermore, traditional aggregation methods tend to amplify these spurious patterns, limiting model robustness under distribution shifts. To address these issues, we propose Causal Neighbourhood Learning with Graph Neural Networks (CNL-GNN), a novel framework that performs causal interventions on graph structure. CNL-GNN effectively identifies and preserves causally relevant connections and reduces spurious influences through the generation of counterfactual neighbourhoods and adaptive edge perturbation guided by learnable importance masking and an attention-based mechanism. In addition, by combining structural-level interventions with the disentanglement of causal features from confounding factors, the model learns invariant node representations that are robust and generalize well across different graph structures. Our approach improves causal graph learning beyond traditional feature-based methods, resulting in a robust classification model. Extensive experiments on four publicly available datasets, including multiple domain variants of one dataset, demonstrate that CNL-GNN outperforms state-of-the-art GNN models.

Modeling causal relationships in graph representation learning remains a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches often draw on theories and methods from causal inference to identify causal subgraphs or mitigate confounders. However, due to the inherent complexity of graph-structured data, these approaches frequently aggregate diverse graph elements into single causal variables, an operation that risks violating the core assumptions of causal inference. In this work, we prove that such aggregation compromises causal validity. Building on this conclusion, we propose a theoretical model grounded in the smallest indivisible units of graph data to ensure that the causal validity is guaranteed. With this model, we further analyze the costs of achieving precise causal modeling in graph representation learning and identify the conditions under which the problem can be simplified. To empirically support our theory, we construct a controllable synthetic dataset that reflects realworld causal structures and conduct extensive experiments for validation. Finally, we develop a causal modeling enhancement module that can be seamlessly integrated into existing graph learning pipelines, and we demonstrate its effectiveness through comprehensive comparative experiments.

Counterfactual inference asks how an observed outcome might have differed under different circumstances, such as whether a patient would have recovered had they received a different treatment. Such questions arise whenever decisions depend on the outcomes of alternatives that were not observed. Answering counterfactual queries generally requires knowledge of the underlying causal structure, which is often unavailable in practice. A common approach is therefore to first estimate the causal graph from observational data and then perform counterfactual inference. However, errors in the estimated causal graph can propagate to downstream counterfactual predictions. To address this challenge, we introduce the Counterfactual Graph Neural Process (CFGNP), an end-to-end approach that answers counterfactual queries directly from observational data without first estimating a causal graph. CFGNP uses Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit the dual-graph structure by restricting cross-world message passing to corresponding factual--counterfactual variables. Across synthetic and image-based benchmarks, CFGNP achieves stronger predictive performance than existing approaches, including on the German Loan benchmark, where it reduces MSE from $4.51 \times 10^{-2}$ to $0.19 \times 10^{-2}$. Furthermore, on synthetic causal graphs, a model trained only on 10-node graphs maintains strong predictive performance on graphs with up to 30 nodes, without retraining.