Stable Long-Horizon Spatiotemporal Prediction on Meshes Using Latent Multiscale Recurrent Graph Neural Networks

Machine Learning surrogates for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), particularly Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Transformers, have become a new important approach for accelerating physics simulations. However, we identify a critical bottleneck in the field: while architectures have advanced significantly, the common underlying training paradigms remain bound to naive assumptions, such as node-wise supervision and explicit Euler time-stepping. These legacy choices ignore the stiff dynamics and local flux continuity inherent to numerous partial differential equations resolution methods, such as Finite Element, Difference, or Volume (FEM). In this work, we propose a unified framework to bridge the gap between geometric deep learning and rigorous numerical analysis. We introduce three key innovations: (1) Multi Node Prediction, a stencil-level objective that predicts field values for a node's full local topology, enforcing spatial derivative consistency; (2) Temporal Correction, replacing unstable explicit schemes with a predictor-corrector via temporal Cross-Attention; and (3) Geometric Inductive Biases, leveraging 3D Rotary Positional Embeddings (RoPE) to robustly capture rotational symmetries in unstructured meshes. We evaluate this framework across three architectures (MeshGraphNet, Transolver, and a Transformer) on diverse physics datasets. Our approach yields consistent improvements in accuracy and stability, particularly in long-horizon rollouts, while producing latent representations that generalize to unseen subtasks such as Wall Shear Stress or Pressure prediction. Code is available at https://github.com/DonsetPG/graph-physics.

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout time. By modeling the forecast trajectory as a continuous latent dynamical system, COGENT can generate predictions at arbitrary future times rather than being restricted to a fixed temporal discretization. A residual decoder maps the resulting latent trajectories back to future physical states, enabling direct multi-step forecasting without repeatedly feeding predicted states back into the model. This formulation combines graph-based spatial representation, history-conditioned latent dynamics, and continuous-time rollout in a unified framework for mesh-based physical simulation emulation. In order to stabilize training with long-horizon supervision, we also propose effective rollout-horizon sampling and a progressive rollout-horizon scheduling strategy. We evaluate COGENT on transient ice-sheet simulations generated by the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, demonstrating improved long-range stability over autoregressive graph baselines. These results suggest that continuous graph Neural ODEs provide a promising methodology for scalable physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes, particularly in applications that require stable long-horizon predictions and the ability to query system states at arbitrary times.

Accurate long-range prediction of geophysical systems is difficult due to strongly nonlinear dynamics, the high computational cost of full-physics simulations, and the error accumulation that arise when one-step autoregressive surrogates are rolled out over decades. Deep neural network can serve as efficient emulators, but most are trained only for next-step prediction and often drift or become unstable as the forecast horizon grows. We propose a multi-horizon graph neural network emulator that learns state-to-state transitions from a single current time to multiple future lead times within one unified model. The physical domain is represented as a graph, where nodes correspond to spatial locations with time-varying geophysical attributes and edges encode local spatial interactions. Given the current graph state, the model predicts the future evolution of key fields, ice thickness and ice velocities at all nodes, using a shared graph backbone with separate output branches for each target variable. To improve stability, the network predicts state increments relative to the current state, which are then added back to reconstruct future states. Training jointly optimizes all lead times with a unified regression objective, and inference uses a coarse-to-fine rollout that advances with larger jumps and selectively refines with shorter jumps to reduce drift and avoid redundant computation. Experiments on multi-decadal Pine Island Glacier simulations show that our approach achieves higher long-range accuracy and improved stability than both (i) an initial-state baseline that predicts each future time directly from the starting state and (ii) a standard single-step autoregressive rollout, producing a more reliable emulator for downstream climate and sea-level studies.