Distributional Stability of Tangent-Linearized Gaussian Inference on Smooth Manifolds

We consider nonparametric tangent vector field regression on a Riemannian manifold without boundary. Because responses at different points lie in different tangent spaces, the proposed kernel estimator first parallel transports nearby responses to the target tangent space and then forms a volume-corrected local average. We first derive its uniform second-order bias, finite-bandwidth covariance, and stochastic rate. For simultaneous inference, the tangent norm is written as a supremum over the unit tangent bundle. Exact covariance whitening gives a unit-variance Gaussian field whose correlation length is of order $h$ along the base manifold and of order one along the fibre. Its local covariance geometry leads to a Gumbel limit with an explicit intrinsic constant. Combining this limit with Gaussian approximation and cross-fitted covariance estimation yields a feasible simultaneous confidence tube for the regression field. We further discuss improved finite-sample inference with bandwidth selection and high-order bias corrections. Simulations on various manifolds support the proposed inference procedure. A randomized reconstruction of global wind data illustrates how the tube's cross-sections describe spatially varying uncertainty.

We develop inference for manifold-valued population minimizers when each observation belongs to a different participant and only locally private messages reach the analyst. The method releases randomized tangent gradients and combines them through Riemannian stochastic approximation and Polyak-Ruppert averaging. Directly inserting a private data surrogate into a nonlinear loss can shift its population target, whereas conditional centring of the released gradient preserves the first-order equation. We introduce symmetric-pair regression (SPR) to estimate the asymptotic variance from the same private messages used for point estimation, without holding out participants or requesting a second release. We prove the central limit theorem and consistency of the fully transcript-based sandwich covariance and intrinsic Wald region under local differential privacy. Simulations across various statistical problems and manifolds support the predicted decrease in estimation error and near-nominal coverage under moderate privacy. An application to NHANES anthropometric data illustrates private estimation of a leading body-size direction and its uncertainty.

Randomized smoothing certifies the probability of a fixed output event as the center of Gaussian noise moves. Feasibility or confidence filtering reports label probabilities only among retained proposals, producing a ratio. Its numerator is a fixed Gaussian event mass, while its denominator is the probability of retention and can change with the center. Substituting this ratio into the ordinary smoothing formula can therefore certify a ball that contains a decision boundary. We separate the problem into a geometric question and a certification question. Geometry determines when conditioning preserves Gaussian comparisons. Convex retained sets preserve the full comparison, while general sets require geometric control of the retained law as the center moves. Without such control, conditional probabilities imply no positive universal radius. Joint retention-and-label probabilities always yield a valid certificate for the same filtered predictor. A uniform covariance bound transfers divergence certificates to the retained law and can yield larger radii even when the Gaussian event comparison fails. Both methods admit finite-sample bounds. For a learned image classifier with a training-selected nonconvex filter, conditional Rényi bounds certify more images than joint-mass bounds without additional model evaluations. A released confidence filter exhibits verified label changes inside radii obtained by conditional substitution. An application of adaptive Gaussian composition covers causal finite-horizon executions with history-dependent center shifts under a pathwise energy bound.