Dynamic Elasticity Between Forest Loss and Carbon Emissions: A Subnational Panel Analysis of the United States

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

Forest monitoring is critical for climate change mitigation. However, existing global tree height maps provide only static snapshots and do not capture temporal forest dynamics, which are essential for accurate carbon accounting. We introduce ECHOSAT, a global and temporally consistent tree height map at 10 m resolution spanning multiple years. To this end, we resort to multi-sensor satellite data to train a specialized vision transformer model, which performs pixel-level temporal regression. A self-supervised growth loss regularizes the predictions to follow growth curves that are in line with natural tree development, including gradual height increases over time, but also abrupt declines due to forest loss events such as fires. Our experimental evaluation shows that our model improves state-of-the-art accuracies in the context of single-year predictions. We also provide the first global-scale height map that accurately quantifies tree growth and disturbances over time. We expect ECHOSAT to advance global efforts in carbon monitoring and disturbance assessment. The maps can be accessed at https://github.com/ai4forest/echosat.

Ecological monitoring, carbon accounting and biodiversity assessment increasingly rely on annual Earth embeddings--learned vectors that compress a year of satellite observation for every ten-meter pixel on Earth, consumed in place of the imagery itself. What these vectors mean has not been established. Here we decompose two widely used embedding products and show that they contain individual ecological features, including fire, forest clearing and crop type, validated against independent reference data on events across six continents. The recovered concepts date abrupt canopy loss to the first post-disturbance growing season and resolve severity well enough to separate prescribed fire from wildfire. Small fires that recover quickly are detectable in one product but not the other, which instead separates crops more strongly.