Uncertainty Calibration

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15 papers in the last four weeks, up 7% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion

    Oct 8, 2026Zhiwei Xue, Jia Yue Kam, Jinhang Qiu +5Uncertainty CalibrationTrajectory Prediction

    National University of Singapore. · LAAS-CNRS. · Smart Systems Institute, NUS.

  2. Do Not Train Away Uncertainty: Early Uncertainty Anchored Calibration

    Oct 8, 2026Yutong Xie, Jiawei Tang, Zhenglin Hua +6Model CalibrationUncertainty Calibration

    School of Software Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · School of Computing Information Sciences, Saint Francis University, Hong Kong, China +2

  3. Scalable AI Uncertainty Quantification via Generalized Laplace Active Subspaces

    Oct 8, 2026Wouter N. Edeling, Peter V. CoveneyUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Scientific Computing Group, CWI, Science park 123, Amsterdam, 1098XG, the Netherlands. · Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Twente, Hallenweg 15, Enschede, 7500AE, the Netherlands. · Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London, WC1H 0AJ, UK. +1

  4. Calibrating Ambiguity Set via Diagnostic Transport for Distributionally Robust Optimization

    Oct 7, 2026Wenbin Zhou, Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Shixiang ZhuDistributionally Robust OptimizationWasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization

    Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University · Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University

  5. SpatialUQ: Post-Hoc Uncertainty Quantification from Spatial Consistency in Black-Box Vision Models

    Oct 7, 2026Md Kawsher Mahbub, Milon Biswas, Mirza Niaz Morshed +1Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    NPI University of Bangladesh · Towson University · University of Asia Pacific

  6. A Belief-State World Model for Catheter Navigation under Sparse Fluoroscopy: A Planar Proof of Concept

    Oct 6, 2026Damini RijhwaniWorld Models for RoboticsWorld Models

    Automation Core Inc. Cambridge, MA, USA

  7. Uncertainty Quantification Is Indispensable for Reliable Connectome-Based Graph Learning: A Narrative Review and Case Study

    Oct 6, 2026Mansooreh PakravanUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Al Ahmad Street, Tehran 111-14115, Iran

  8. Impact of Data Augmentation on Confidence Calibration in Melanoma Classification

    Oct 5, 2026Morgan May, Simon Caton, Pierpaolo DondioData AugmentationMedical Image Classification

    Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · Research Ireland Centre for Research Training in Machine Learning, ML-Labs, Dublin, Ireland · University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland +1

  9. SimplexUQ: An Evaluation Framework and Benchmark for Conformal Uncertainty on Simplex-Valued Predictions

    Sep 30, 2026Liang You, Hengyu Shi, Dongwen OuGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pittsburgh · Duke University

  10. Referential Uncertainty in Human--AI Collaboration

    Sep 30, 2026Christian Poelitz, Finale Doshi-Velez, Siân LindleyLLM Uncertainty EstimationHuman-AI Decision Making

    Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK · Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

  11. Towards Trustworthy AI for Glioma Diagnosis: A Task-Aware Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Sep 30, 2026Gonzalo Esteban Mosquera Rojas, Sebastian R. van der Voort, Carolin M. Pirkl +3Uncertainty QuantificationBrain Tumor Classification

    Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands · Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands · GE HealthCare, Munich, Germany +3

  12. TRACE: Single-Pass Decoding-Trace Risk Localization for Generation Calibration

    Sep 28, 2026Yuebin Xu, Xuemei Peng, Junlan Chen +2Confidence Estimation in Language ModelsLanguage Model Calibration

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

  13. Jev thinks "I don't know'', but doesn't say it: Introducing Sys1Cal-v1 Dataset for Probability Calibration

    Sep 28, 2026Riccardo PorceddaProbability CalibrationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Excellence L’EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy · Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, Italy

  14. Do Not Cut When Uncertain: Rejectable and Calibrated Decision Heads for VLA Policies in Robotic Harvesting

    Sep 28, 2026Heng ZhangUncertainty Estimation for VLA ModelsSelective Prediction

  15. Calibrated Uncertainty for Informative Path Planning in Aquatic Environmental Monitoring

    Sep 28, 2026Samuel Yanes Luis, Alejandro Casado Pérez, Alejandro Mendoza Barrionuevo +3Informative Path PlanningDeep Ensembles

    Department of Electronic Technology, University of Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain · Department of Electronic Engineering, University of Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain

  16. Optimal Transport Dropout for Structured Predictive Uncertainty

    Sep 27, 2026Giacomo Lorenzon, Francesco RegazzoniUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    MOX–Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

  17. KITE: Scaling Jev Population Experiments with Sparse Flagship Calibration

    Sep 23, 2026Hengyu LiCausal Effect EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    The University of Tokyo

  18. You Should Be Properly Scoring Your Odometry

    Sep 22, 2026Ola Rønning, Usama Saqib, Andrzej WąsowskiProbability CalibrationProper Scoring Rules

    Software Quality Research Group, IT University of Copenhagen, Denmark

  19. Predictive Uncertainty for Neural CAE Surrogates

    Sep 21, 2026Kaustubh Tangsali, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Kelvin Lee +2Neural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    NVIDIA

  20. Marginal Calibration Does Not Compose: Hidden Dependence in Modular Robot Navigation

    Sep 20, 2026Rista BaralModular RoboticsRobot State Estimation

    University of Delaware

  21. ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation

    Sep 15, 2026Vicky Feliren, A. Taufiq Asyhari, Muhamad Risqi U. SaputraConformal PredictionVision-Language Navigation

    Monash University, Indonesia

  22. Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

    Sep 12, 2026Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu +2Selective PredictionCost-Aware Inference

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University Xi’an, China

  23. Uncertainty-Aware Sea-Ice Type Mapping with Multiple Ice Charts

    Sep 8, 2026Samira Alkaee Taleghan, Younghyun Koo, Andrew P. Barrett +1Remote Sensing Image UnderstandingAnnotator Disagreement

    University of Colorado Denver Denver, Colorado, USA · National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, Colorado, USA

  24. DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

    Sep 1, 2026Yinuo Xu, Yuwei Liang, Jianjie Cheng +4Deep Research AgentsLanguage Model Calibration

    NLPR & MAIS, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA) · School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · Meituan Inc.

  25. A Hybrid PEM-GP Framework for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification of Quadcopters

    Aug 31, 2026Abdallah Ghoul, Ismail Khalil Bousserhane, Kadri BoufeldjaRobot Dynamics IdentificationNonlinear System Identification

    Electrical Engineering Department, University of Bechar, Bechar 08000, Algeria

  26. Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

    Aug 31, 2026Haoxu Huang, Narges RazavianMedical Imaging Foundation ModelsUncertainty Quantification

    Center for Data Science, New York University · Department of Radiology, NYU Grossman School of Medicine · Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine

  27. Rethinking the Test-Time Prompt Tuning Objective from the Perspective of Calibration

    Aug 31, 2026Jungwon Choi, Hyeonseo Jang, Kibok Lee +1VLM CalibrationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chung-Ang University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Yonsei University

  28. Reliability analysis for BraTS-GoAT segmentation: a controlled robustness study of deep-ensemble uncertainty

    Aug 13, 2026Riya Deepak Shet, Le ZhangUncertainty QuantificationNeural Network Robustness

    Department of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom · Department of Electronic, Electrical and Systems Engineering, School of Engineering, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  29. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoUnsupervised Domain AdaptationConformal Prediction

    The Faculty of Engineering, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

  30. Asymptotic Risk Calibration for Selective Question Answering

    Aug 12, 2026Shufan Lin, Sijin DongQuestion AnsweringLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    Zhangjiang University · Ibaraki University