Defensive Generation

Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d. test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such as error rate are well-defined, and test error reliably approximates population error given sufficiently large datasets. In contrast, evaluation is more challenging for generative models due to their open-ended nature: it is unclear which metrics are appropriate and whether such metrics can be reliably evaluated from finite samples. In this work, we introduce a theoretical framework for evaluating generative models and establish evaluability results for commonly used metrics. We study two categories of metrics: test-based metrics, including integral probability metrics (IPMs), and Rényi divergences. We show that IPMs with respect to any bounded test class can be evaluated from finite samples up to multiplicative and additive approximation errors. Moreover, when the test class has finite fat-shattering dimension, IPMs can be evaluated with arbitrary precision. In contrast, Rényi and KL divergences are not evaluable from finite samples, as their values can be critically determined by rare events. We also analyze the potential and limitations of perplexity as an evaluation method.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Auditing the fine-tunes of open-weight generative models for harmful specialization has become a new governance challenge for model hosting platforms. The standard toolkit, generative evaluation via curated prompts or red-teaming, does not scale to platform-level auditing and breaks down entirely for domains like CSAM where generation is legally constrained. This motivates the Evaluation without Generation problem: assessing model capabilities without producing outputs. We argue that in such settings, capability must be inferred from the model's state, either its parameters or internal representations, rather than its outputs. We introduce Gaussian probing, a method that characterizes how LoRA adaptors perturb a model's internal representations by measuring responses to Gaussian latent ensembles. Unlike raw-weight baselines, Gaussian probing reliably distinguishes benign from harmful specialization without sampling outputs. We demonstrate effectiveness in high-risk domains, including detecting models specialized for child sexual abuse material (CSAM), where output-based evaluation is legally and ethically constrained. Our results show that Gaussian probing provides a scalable non-generative alternative for evaluating high-risk generative systems and remains robust to weight rescaling, a representative adversarial manipulation.