Temporal Web analytics increasingly relies on large-scale, longitudinal data to understand how users, content, and systems evolve over time. A rapidly growing frontier is the Temporal Web3: decentralized platforms whose behavior is recorded as immutable, time-stamped event streams. Despite the richness of this data, the field lacks shared, reproducible benchmarks that capture real-world temporal dynamics, specifically censoring and non-stationarity, across extended horizons. This absence slows methodological progress and limits the transfer of techniques between Web3 and broader Web domains. In this paper, we present the FinSurvival Challenge 2025 as a case study in benchmarking temporal Web3 intelligence. Using 21.8 million transaction records from the Aave v3 protocol, the challenge operationalized 16 survival prediction tasks to model user behavior transitions.We detail the benchmark design and the winning solutions, highlighting how domain-aware temporal feature construction significantly outperformed generic modeling approaches. Furthermore, we distill lessons for next-generation temporal benchmarks, arguing that Web3 systems provide a high-fidelity sandbox for studying temporal challenges, such as churn, risk, and evolution that are fundamental to the wider Web.
Figures & tables
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Team
Balancehero
AutoFinSurv
FinBoost
Focus
Feature Engineering
Optimization
Ensemble
Model
XGBoost AFT
XGBoost Cox
XGBoost Mix
Features
Hierarchical (10,000+)
Original (90)
Augmented (90+)
Average C-index
0.914
0.849
0.847
Table 1. Comparison of Top-Performing Solutions in the FinSurvival 2025 Challenge
DeFi Survival Task
Web Domain Equivalent
Deposit → Withdraw
Subscription → Churn (SaaS)
Borrow → Liquidate
Credit Line → Default (FinTech)
Repay → Borrow
Feature Engagement → Upsell (E-commerce)
Index Event → Censoring
User Session → Inactivity/Logout
Table 2. Mapping DeFi Survival Tasks to Web Analytics
The Web3 ecosystem, underpinned by cryptographic primitives and decentralized consensus, represents a high-stakes environment where software vulnerabilities and incentive misalignments translate directly into financial loss. As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into this domain for tasks ranging from smart contract auditing to decentralized finance analytics, ensuring their reliability is paramount. However, general-purpose benchmarks fail to capture the specialized reasoning required for these adversarial and protocol-driven settings. To bridge this gap, we introduce DMind Benchmark, a comprehensive evaluation suite designed to rigorously assess LLM proficiency across the Web3 stack. DMind Benchmark encompasses nine distinct subdomains (spanning infrastructure, smart contracts, token economics, etc.) and combines objective knowledge retrieval with complex open-ended reasoning tasks that emulate real-world operational challenges. We conduct an extensive evaluation of 31 leading proprietary and open-weights models, employing a contamination-aware pipeline and verifying the statistical robustness of our scoring protocol through rigorous cross-judge consistency checks. Our analysis reveals a critical dichotomy: while models demonstrate competence in foundational infrastructure concepts, they exhibit significant vulnerabilities in high-reasoning tasks such as security auditing. Furthermore, we provide a Pareto analysis to guide cost-effective deployment and demonstrate through adversarial experiments that high performance on DMind Benchmark necessitates genuine reasoning rather than superficial memorization. Since its open-source release in April 2025, DMind Benchmark achieved the #1 trending position on Hugging Face for nearly a week and accumulated over 13k downloads by June 2026, establishing itself as a standard for advancing secure and trustworthy AI in Web3.
Enhao Huang, Pengyu Sun, Shuxun Wang +13
Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China · The State Key Laboratory of Blockchain and Data Security · DMind.ai Singapore +1
Temporal cascade prediction is widely studied, yet its empirical foundations remain fragile. Most existing works report results under random cascade splits that mix past and future signals, rely on datasets with limited features and no downstream conversion labels, and compare increasingly complex models without systematically examining whether benchmark conclusions are protocol-dependent. This paper argues that the field should move from leakage-prone evaluation toward fidelity-aware benchmarking. We introduce a protocol suite and renewed evaluation standard for temporal cascade prediction, centered on the Full Temporal protocol, overlap-based leakage diagnostics, and analyses of performance inflation and temporal drift. To broaden the scope of benchmark tasks, we also present Taoke, a real-world e-commerce cascade dataset with rich promoter/product features and observed purchase conversions, enabling both first-stage popularity forecasting and second-stage conversion forecasting under a shared benchmark asset. Finally, we include CasTemp as a lightweight reference method and additionally probe a larger same-task internal extension to verify that this pipeline remains operational at substantially greater scale. Together, these components turn cascade prediction from a protocol-sensitive leaderboard exercise into a more reliable analysis and benchmarking problem, while still providing a practical reference pipeline for large-scale evaluation and conversion-aware modeling.
Recent advances in time-series forecasting increasingly rely on pre-trained foundation-style models. While these models often claim broad generalization, existing evaluation protocols provide limited evidence. Indeed, most current benchmarks use static train-test splits that can easily lead to contamination as foundation models can inadvertently train on test data or perform model selection using test scores, which can inflate performance. We introduce Impermanent, a live benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under open-world temporal change by scoring forecasts sequentially over time on continuously updated data streams, enabling the study of temporal robustness, distributional shift, and performance stability rather than one-off accuracy on a frozen test set. Impermanent is instantiated on GitHub open-source activity, providing a naturally live and highly non-stationary dataset shaped by releases, shifting contributor behavior, platform/tooling changes, and external events. We focus on the top 400 repositories by star count and construct time series from issues opened, pull requests opened, push events, and new stargazers, evaluated over a rolling window with daily updates, alongside standardized protocols and leaderboards for reproducible, ongoing comparison. By shifting evaluation from static accuracy to sustained performance, Impermanent takes a concrete step toward assessing when and whether foundation-level generalization in time-series forecasting can be meaningfully claimed. Code and a live dashboard are available at https://github.com/TimeCopilot/impermanent and https://impermanent.timecopilot.dev.