physics.comp-phFeb 17, 2026

Adaptive Uncertainty-Guided Surrogates for Efficient phase field Modeling of Dendritic Solidification

Authors: Eider Garate-Perez, Kerman López de Calle-Etxabe, Oihana Garcia, Borja Calvo, Meritxell Gómez-Omella, Jon Lambarri

Organizations: Intelligent Information Systems, Tekniker, Iñaki Goenaga 5, Eibar (20600) Spain · Faculty of Informatics UPV-EHU, Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 1, Donostia (20700) Spain · Department of Computer Sciences and Artificial Intelligence, UPV-EHU, Donostia (20700) Spain · Advanced Manufacturing Technologies, Tekniker, Iñaki Goenaga 5, Eibar (20600) Spain

Abstract

The high computational cost of phase field simulations remains a major limitation for predicting dendritic solidification in metals, particularly in additive manufacturing, where microstructural control is critical. This work presents a surrogate model for dendritic solidification that employs uncertainty-driven adaptive sampling with XGBoost and CNNs, including a self-supervised strategy, to efficiently approximate the spatio-temporal evolution while reducing costly phase field simulations. The proposed adaptive strategy leverages model uncertainty, approximated via Monte Carlo dropout for CNNs and bagging for XGBoost, to identify high-uncertainty regions where new samples are generated locally within hyperspheres, progressively refining the spatio-temporal design space and achieving accurate predictions with significantly fewer phase field simulations than an Optimal Latin Hypercube Sampling optimized via discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (OLHS-PSO). The framework systematically investigates how temporal instance selection, adaptive sampling, and the choice between domain-informed and data-driven surrogates affect spatio-temporal model performance. Evaluation considers not only computational cost but also the number of expensive phase field simulations, surrogate accuracy, and associated CO2CO_2 emissions, providing a comprehensive assessment of model performance as well as their related environmental impact.

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