Overview

Surrogate modeling studies how to approximate costly simulators or opaque predictors so they can be queried, optimized, or interpreted more efficiently. Common approaches include Gaussian processes and reduced-order models, neural operators and other deep networks, and hybrid or multi-fidelity methods that combine cheap simulations with a smaller number of accurate ones; active learning can select the most useful new evaluations. Applications range from PDE and climate emulation to engineering design, control, Bayesian optimization, and explanations of black-box models. A central challenge is balancing speed and average prediction accuracy with reliable uncertainty estimates, physical consistency, and performance on unseen regimes or decisions.

Latest papers

CardsList

229 papers27 papers in the last four weeks, up 13% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Generative modeling for fusion: a large-scale benchmark of stellarator fast-ion simulations

    Oct 27, 2026Misha Padidar, Teresa Huang, Mark Goldstein +2Generative ModelingSurrogate Modeling

  2. Bayesian Inference of Expensive Simulators: Survey and Comparison of Design Choices

    Oct 27, 2026Šimon Soldát, Václav ŠmídlSimulation-Based InferenceBayesian Inverse Problems

  3. Learning on-the-fly quasi-stationarity diagnostics from low-dimensional surrogates

    Oct 26, 2026Noé BlasselMarkov ChainsSurrogate Modeling

  4. A Graph-informed Kriging model for sample-efficient Bayesian optimization of wind farm layouts

    Oct 26, 2026Zhen-Fan Wang, Kai Zhang, Xianping Du +3Surrogate ModelingGaussian Process Regression

  5. End-to-End Neural Modeling of EM Response and Design Performance for Free-Form RFIC Passives

    Oct 25, 2026Yuhao Mao, Chenhao Chu, Martin Vechev +1Neural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

  6. A SegFormer-based model for spatial Daylight Factor prediction with comprehensive obstruction encoding and regulatory validation

    Oct 24, 2026Stanislava Fedorova, Alejandro Pacheco Diéguez, Christoph Berkmiller +3Surrogate Modeling

  7. SABLE: Scalable Affine Bayesian Latent-space Exploration

    Oct 22, 2026Erik Bodin, Lisa Maria Kreusser, Donney Fan +3Bayesian OptimizationLatent Space Optimization

  8. Fast Bayesian Optimization Through Linear Models

    Oct 21, 2026Colin Doumont, Henry Moss, Philipp HennigBayesian OptimizationSurrogate Modeling

  9. Scenario Generalization and Sector Transfer in Real Surface Irrigation Surrogate Modelling with Tabular Models

    Oct 19, 2026Alessandro Cagiano, M. Aybars Seyhan, Fabiola Gangi +2Surrogate ModelingSpatial Generalization

  10. Accelerating Wildfire Hazard Mapping Across Canada with an AI Surrogate Modelling Framework

    Oct 16, 2026Hager Radi Abdelwahed, Toluwaleke Olutayo, Chirag Goel +7Surrogate ModelingNeural Surrogate Modeling

  11. Quality-of-Transmission Estimation in Quantum Networks: Compute, Simulate, or Learn?

    Oct 16, 2026Anis Bekri, Amar Abane, Van Sy Mai +2Surrogate Modeling

  12. Two-stage Residual Learning for Modelling Strength-Informed Optimisation of Thermal Systems

    Oct 14, 2026Talha Ansar, Waqar Muhammad Ashraf, Abdulelah S. Alshehri +1Surrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

  13. Operator Surrogates

    Oct 13, 2026Christoph Schwab, Josephine Westermann, Jakob ZechSurrogate ModelingOperator Learning

  14. pi-Net: Empirical Latent Representations for Differentiable Physics Heads in Data-Scarce Systems

    Oct 12, 2026Akshay Dhalpe, Arnab Chattopadhyay, Shahriar Bakrani Balani +2Physics-Informed MLSurrogate Modeling

  15. Interpretable Graph Partitioning for Spatial Prediction

    Oct 12, 2026Yuta ShikuriGraph PartitioningGraph Clustering

  16. Electron-Density-Informed Molecular Property Prediction Using Surrogate Functionals

    Oct 9, 2026Manuel V. Klockow, Simon Wagner, Roman Remme +2Density Functional TheoryMolecular Property Prediction

  17. EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching

    Oct 7, 2026Kirien Whan, Nikolaj T. Mücke, Karin van der WielClimate EmulationClimate Modeling

  18. A perspective note on likelihood approximation and inference for complex simulation models using a chain of aggregated normalizing flows

    Oct 5, 2026Getachew K BefekaduSimulation-Based InferenceSurrogate Modeling

  19. A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-63

    Oct 5, 2026João Böger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolò Zagli +2Surrogate ModelingChaotic Dynamical Systems

  20. Technical Report on the Turba Fertilizer Machine Learning Stack in Morocco

    Oct 5, 2026Abdelghani Belgaid, Zakaria Mahmoud, Fahd Chibani +3Surrogate ModelingML Reproducibility

  21. AI-driven Thermal-aware Data Center Capacity Planning

    Oct 1, 2026Yixing Li, Mark Fenton, Matthew Kaufeler +3Surrogate Modeling

  22. AI Emulation of Stochastic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Interpretable Latent Structure

    Oct 1, 2026C. Daniel Boscu, Daniel Hernandez, Fabio Alvarez Ventura +4Dynamical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

  23. Counterfactual Predictions in Scientific Emulators Without Controlled Experiments

    Sep 30, 2026Dingling Yao, Kahaan Gandhi, Valentin Duruisseaux +3Counterfactual PredictionCausal Inference

  24. C-STRIDE: An Observation-Driven AI Digital Twin for Predicting Basin-Wide Flood Fields from Sparse Stream-Gauge Histories

    Sep 30, 2026Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu +1Surrogate ModelingFlood Inundation Mapping

  25. A Pre-trained Variational Autoencoder for Gyrokinetic Plasma Turbulence Surrogate Modeling

    Sep 29, 2026Minglei Yang, Marshall Nicholson, Diego Del-Castillo-Negrete +2Variational AutoencodersPhysics-Informed Generative Modeling

  26. Dimensionally consistent surrogate modelling through dimensional analysis and harmonic expansions

    Sep 29, 2026Ernest Tarrus, Hector GisbertSurrogate Modeling

  27. A Model-Agnostic Physics-Guided Adapter for Few-Shot Transfer of Coastal Flood Prediction Models to Unseen Regions

    Sep 29, 2026Bilal Hassan, Areg Karapetyan, Samer MadanatFlood Inundation MappingFew-Shot Domain Adaptation

  28. Explainable Machine Learning for Multilayer Planar Winding Inductance Estimation

    Sep 29, 2026Spyros Rigas, Theofilos Papadopoulos, Georgios Alexandridis +1Parameter EstimationSurrogate Modeling