Surrogate Modeling

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching

    Oct 7, 2026Kirien Whan, Nikolaj T. Mücke, Karin van der WielClimate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    KNMI, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, 3731GA, The Netherlands · Scientific Computing, Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Science Park 123, Amsterdam, 1098XG, The Netherlands · Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands +1

  2. A perspective note on likelihood approximation and inference for complex simulation models using a chain of aggregated normalizing flows

    Oct 5, 2026Getachew K BefekaduSimulation-Based InferenceSurrogate Modeling

    DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.

  3. A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-63

    Oct 5, 2026João Böger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolò Zagli +2Surrogate ModelingChaotic Dynamical Systems

    Department of Technology, Management and Economics Technical University of Denmark Kongens Lyngby, 2800, DK · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge Cambridge, CB3 0WA, UK · School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences University of Leicester Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK +1

  4. Technical Report on the Turba Fertilizer Machine Learning Stack in Morocco

    Oct 5, 2026Abdelghani Belgaid, Zakaria Mahmoud, Fahd Chibani +3Surrogate ModelingML Reproducibility

    Turba Open Lab

  5. AI Emulation of Stochastic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Interpretable Latent Structure

    Oct 1, 2026C. Daniel Boscu, Daniel Hernandez, Fabio Alvarez Ventura +4Dynamical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, 60637, IL · Data Science Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, 60637, IL · Department of Applied Mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, 95064, CA +1

  6. C-STRIDE: An Observation-Driven AI Digital Twin for Predicting Basin-Wide Flood Fields from Sparse Stream-Gauge Histories

    Sep 30, 2026Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu +1Surrogate ModelingFlood Inundation Mapping

    School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA

  7. A Pre-trained Variational Autoencoder for Gyrokinetic Plasma Turbulence Surrogate Modeling

    Sep 29, 2026Minglei Yang, Marshall Nicholson, Diego Del-Castillo-Negrete +2Variational AutoencodersPhysics-Informed Generative Modeling

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA · Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI, 49401, USA · University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

  8. GPARA: Graph-Posterior-Aligned Refinement and Active Acquisition for Grounding Diffusion Priors

    Sep 28, 2026Wangqian Chen, Hao Wang, Yumeng Zhang +3Surrogate ModelingActive Sensing

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

  9. Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models

    Sep 25, 2026Shan Zhao, Ilija Trajkovic, Julia Kaltenborn +4Surrogate ModelingCausal Representation Learning

    Technical University of Munich Munich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe, Germany · McGill University & Mila Montreal, Canada +1

  10. Probabilistic and Geometry Aware Neural Surrogate of Scrape Off Layer Plasma Simulations

    Sep 23, 2026Gabriele Gianuzzo, Stefan Dasbach, Fleur Hendriks +2Neural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    Eindhoven University of Technology · DIFFER

  11. KATOsuper: Surrogate-accelerated neural topology optimization with sensitivity-consistent Fourier neural operators

    Sep 23, 2026Shengyu Yan, Jasmin JelovicaNeural Surrogate ModelingTopology Optimization

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Ln, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, Canada · Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Ln, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, Canada

  12. Artificial intelligence surrogates for treatment effect estimation with before-and-after data

    Sep 23, 2026Frances Dean, Anna Neufeld, Joshua Barrios +2Surrogate ModelingCausal Effect Estimation

    University of California, Berkeley · University of California, San Francisco · Williams College

  13. One-Step Generative Surrogate Models via Block-Triangular Joint Drifting

    Sep 22, 2026Nicholas Geissler, Shreya Jha, Ricardo Baptista +1Surrogate ModelingOne-Step Generative Modeling

    Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University · Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto · Institute of Mathematics, EPFL

  14. MGRD: Compact morphology-gated residual diffusion for variance-aware cross-domain neurite forecasting

    Sep 21, 2026Tsung Yeh Hsieh, Cosmin Anitescu, Chunghwan Kim +2Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

  15. From Regional to Global: Transfer Learning for Atmospheric Transport Emulators

    Sep 20, 2026Jeff Clark, Elena Fillola, Nawid Keshtmand +2Surrogate ModelingTask Transferability Estimation

    School of Engineering Mathematics and Technology, University of Bristol, UK · School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, UK

  16. Real-time Generalizable Heart Valve Mechanics for Clinical Disease Assessment via a Physics-Conditioned Neural Operator

    Sep 20, 2026Shawn Koohy, Wensi Wu, Matthew A Jolley +1Surrogate ModelingPhysics-Informed Neural Operators

    Department of Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA. · Cardiovascular Institute, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, USA. · Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, USA. +1

  17. NS3Learn: Transferring 5G NR Mode-2 Reception Realism from ns-3 to the Veins/SUMO Stack for Connected-Vehicle Safety Assessment

    Sep 17, 2026Rasheed Bello, Arthur Mukwaya, Gurcan Comert +5Surrogate ModelingIntelligent Transportation Systems

    South Carolina State University Orangeburg, SC 29117, USA · North Carolina A&T State University Greensboro, NC 27411, USA · Dakota State University Madison, SD 57042, USA +1

  18. Search at the Cost of Sampling: Nearly-Instant Latent Space Bayesian Optimization

    Sep 16, 2026Donney Fan, Colin Doumont, Aleksandra Kalisz +4Surrogate ModelingBayesian Optimization

    University of British Columbia · Vector Institute · Tübingen AI Center +3

  19. Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

    Sep 15, 2026Niki Triantafyllou, Andrea Bernardi, Maria M. PapathanasiouMulti-Fidelity OptimizationSurrogate Modeling

    Sargent Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

  20. Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development

    Sep 11, 2026Johannes Mäkelburg, Tim Schwabe, Maribel AcostaCyber-Physical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Technische Universität München Munich, Germany

  21. Toward Reliable Railway-Bogie Response Prediction Using Multifidelity TDNN and Physics-Informed Residual Learning

    Sep 10, 2026Gyeolhee Lee, Moosun Kim, Taewook Kwon +3Surrogate ModelingResidual Learning

    Department of Automotive Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea · Korea Railroad Research Institute, 176 Cheoldobangmulgwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do 16105, Republic of Korea · Department of Future Mobility, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea

  22. ONE CYLinder: A Benchmark for Graph-Based Surrogate Modeling of Unsteady Bluff-Body Flows

    Sep 8, 2026Théodore Michel, Antoine Campos, Alban Dujardin +3Surrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Mines Paris PSL University Centre for Material Forming (CEMEF) UMR CNRS, Sophia Antipolis, 06904, France

  23. Earth System World Model for What-If Simulations: A Case Study for Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Sep 8, 2026Zhihao Wang, Ruichen Wang, Ruohan Li +6Surrogate ModelingWorld Model Learning

    University of Maryland · Rutgers University · University of Texas at Austin +1

  24. Structured Extrema Errors in Classical Surrogates for Viscous Burgers: A Physics-Consistent Interpretation

    Sep 7, 2026Youssef OubariKernel Ridge RegressionSurrogate Modeling

    IMT Atlantique, France

  25. Translation of Black-Box Clinical Prediction Models into Standalone Transparent Nomograms: Temporal External Validation in Heart Transplantation

    Sep 7, 2026Henry Pigot, Paulo J. G. Lisboa, Sandra Ortega-Martorell +3Surrogate ModelingHealthcare

    Department of Translational Medicine, Artificial Intelligence and Bioinformatics in Cardiothoracic Sciences Research Unit, Lund University, Lund, Sweden · Artificial Intelligence and Digital Technologies Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK · Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden

  26. SurgeGen: A Hybrid Generative Diffusion Framework for Storm Surge Scenario Synthesis

    Sep 3, 2026Shunan Zheng, John J. HasenbeinSurrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Operations Research and Industrial Engineering University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA

  27. MeanField Surrogate Modeling for Scalable Runtime Scheduling of Concurrent Heterogeneous AI Inference on Shared GPUs

    Sep 2, 2026Youssef Ennouri, Soonhoi HaSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea

  28. PruneShift: A Framework for Evaluating Decision Reliability in Structured Pruning

    Aug 30, 2026Hao Ye, Gaopeng ZhangSurrogate ModelingStructured Pruning

    Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

  29. Interpretable AI with Local Distillation

    Aug 24, 2026Erin Craig, Yiling Huang, Snigdha PanigrahiSurrogate ModelingInterpretable ML

    Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan · Department of Statistics, University of Michigan

  30. Stochastic Emulation of a Fully Coupled Preindustrial E3SMv3 Simulation

    Aug 10, 2026Elynn Wu, James P. C. Duncan, Troy Arcomano +11Surrogate ModelingClimate Science

    Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2), Seattle, WA, USA · Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA · Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA +2

  31. Full-Feature versus Limited-Input Machine Learning for Residential Energy Estimation: A Comparative Analysis of RECS and ResStock Under Realistic Input Constraints

    Aug 10, 2026Aditya Ramnarayan, Fatih Evren, Patti Gunderson +1Surrogate ModelingEnsemble Learning

    PhD Intern, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory · Researcher, Building Systems Group at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory · Data Scientist, Building Systems Group at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

  32. From Relevance to Execution Utility: Reward-Aware Dynamic Execution Gating for Skill-Based LLM Agents

    Aug 10, 2026Liang He, Jingbo Wen, Hongyu Gu +5Surrogate Modeling

    Tongji University · The University of Sydney · University of Science and Technology of China +4

  33. Temperature-Driven Sequential Modeling for the Prediction of Annual Power Conversion Efficiency Profiles of Organic Photovoltaic Materials: Douala Case Study

    Aug 9, 2026Steve Cabrel Teguia Kouam, Rockefeller Rockefeller, Raoult Dabou Teukam +4Surrogate ModelingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, Douala, PO. Box 24157, Littoral, Cameroon. · Division of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa. · Department of Engineering, University of Quebec in Abitibi-T´emiscamingue, Quebec, Canada. +1

  34. Kastor: An efficient fine-tuning strategy for generative emulation of PDE simulations

    Aug 6, 2026Guillaume Couairon, Alexis Jacq, Yu-Han Wu +4Surrogate ModelingFine-Tuning

    Google DeepMind

  35. Accelerating nanodrug development in continuous flow systems using informed prediction models based on low-cost surrogate nanoparticles

    Aug 6, 2026Kai Dahms, Eilien Heinrich, Jochen Schmid +3Surrogate ModelingMaterials Property Prediction

    Fraunhofer Institute for Microengineering and Microsystems (IMM), 55129 Mainz, Germany · Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics (ITWM), 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany

  36. Discrete energy as an exact label-free training objective for finite-element surrogates

    Aug 5, 2026Ruifeng Cao, Xidan SongSurrogate ModelingStructural Mechanics

    The University of Manchester · The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom · Wuhan University +1

  37. Stochastic Emulation using Generalized Stratified Sampling for Performance-Based Risk Optimization of Structures

    Aug 5, 2026Isabela D. Rodrigues, Seymour M. J. Spence, Henrique M. Kroetz +1Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Structural Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, 13566-590, São Paulo, Brazil · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, USA · Center for Marine Studies, Federal University of Paraná, Pontal do Paraná, 13566-590, Paraná, Brazil

  38. Interpreting Black-Box Large Language Models with Sentence-Level Energy Landscapes

    Aug 3, 2026Maryam Rezaee, Pooriya Safaei, Maryam Asgarinezhad +1Surrogate ModelingLLM Interpretability

    Department of Mathematical Sciences, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

  39. An Evolutionary Algorithm Assisted by an Ensemble of Pareto-Optimal Surrogate Models

    Aug 3, 2026Kei Nishihara, Yaochu Jin, Masaya NakataSurrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

    Organization for the Promotion of Education, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 2408501, Japan · School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310030, China · Faculty of Engineering, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 2408501, Japan

  40. When May a Model Replace the Experiment? Audits, Licenses, and the Price of Trust in Surrogate-Driven Design

    Aug 2, 2026Shuangxiu, Ma, Wenhe +1Surrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

    Max · William G. Lowrie Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, United States · Zachary +1

  41. When Do Surrogate Updates Improve Decisions? A Local Theory of Trajectory-Wise Transfer

    Aug 2, 2026Yuyang ShenSurrogate ModelingDecision-Focused Learning

    The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

  42. HyperODE: Zero-Shot Surrogate for Simulation and Inference of Dynamical Systems

    Aug 1, 2026Ajitesh SrivastavaNeural Surrogate ModelingZero-Shot Learning

    Northeastern University

  43. Frugal Bayesian Optimization: Scalable Surrogates for Data- and Resource-Limited Discovery

    Jul 31, 2026Panagiotis Krokidas, Christoforos Rekatsinas, Vassilis Sioros +3Surrogate ModelingBayesian Optimization

    Institute of Informatics and Telecommunications, National Centre for Scientific Research "Demokritos", Agia Paraskevi, Greece. · Department of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics, University of Patras, Patras Greece. · Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece. +4

  44. Few-shot Deep Learning for Phase-Amplitude Aberration Correction in Transcranial Focused Ultrasound

    Jul 31, 2026Minju Seol, Minjee Seo, Seonaeng Cho +1Surrogate ModelingFew-Shot Learning

    School of Mathematics and Computing (Computational Science and Engineering), Yonsei University, 03722, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Innovative & Intelligent Computational Science Institute (IN2CSI), Seoul, Republic of Korea

  45. From Classification to Regression: Using a Fruitfly to Solve Equations

    Jul 29, 2026Shady E. Ahmed, Panos StinisPrototype-Based LearningSurrogate Modeling

    Advanced Computing, Mathematics, and Data Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, WA 99354

  46. Transfer Learning Architectures for Scalable Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization

    Jul 26, 2026Jaewook Lee, Ethan Errington, Christian D. Lorenz +1Multi-Fidelity OptimizationSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Engineering, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom.

  47. Continuous surrogates versus threshold Boolean networks for modeling Arabidopsis ISR gene regulation

    Jul 25, 2026Gonzalo A. RuzSurrogate ModelingGene Regulatory Network Inference

    Facultad de Ingenier´ıa y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ib´a˜nez · Millennium Nucleus for Social Data Science (SODAS) · Millennium Nucleus in Data Science for Plant Resilience (PhytoLearning) +1

  48. Poor Man's Agentic Modeling: Simulating Large LLM-Agent Societies on a Laptop

    Jul 19, 2026Igor ItkinMulti-Agent LLM SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Independent Researcher, Tel Aviv, Israel

  49. Reliable Remediation Impact Prediction for Black-Box Security Ratings

    Jul 17, 2026Nada Hanad, Mehdi Acheli, Ali NourEldin +2Surrogate ModelingCybersecurity

    SAMOVAR, Telecom SudParis, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France

  50. Learning a System-Level Surrogate for Hydraulic Excavators: A Simulation-to-Real LSTM Approach

    Jul 17, 2026Shuai Wang, Shen Wang, Qiang Wang +4Neural Surrogate ModelingRobotic Construction

    National Engineering Research Center of Mobile Network Technologies, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China · Yaowu (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518052, China

  51. Microstructure-Conditioned Surrogate Models for Graded Multiscale Optimization of Mycelium Composites

    Jul 15, 2026J. Storm, I. B. C. M. Rocha, S. Schyck +2Neural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    SLIMM Lab, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, Delft, 2600GA, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands · Shaping Matter Lab, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands

  52. A Shortcut to Statistically Steady-State Turbulence with Flow Matching

    Jul 14, 2026Gianluca Galletti, Gerald Gutenbrunner, William Hornsby +5Dynamical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Institute for Machine Learning, JKU Linz · United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Culham campus · Mistral AI

  53. Gradient-Free Topology Adaptation for Power Flow Surrogates via In-Context Whitening

    Jul 14, 2026Ayushi Jolotia, Parikshit PareekNeural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee

  54. Incremental Transformer for Surrogate-Based Inverse Design of Geopolymer Mixtures

    Jul 12, 2026Giansalvo Cirrincione, Filippo GrassiaSurrogate ModelingMaterials Property Prediction

    Laboratory of Innovative Technologies (LTI, EA 3899) University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, 80025, Hauts-de-France, France

  55. BattVAE-GP: Generative Modeling of Long-Horizon Battery Degradation with Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 11, 2026Raghvender Raghvender, Mahdi Abid, Ferran Brosa Planella +2Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Laboratoire de Réactivité et de Chimie des Solides (LRCS), UMR CNRS 7314-Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 15 Rue Baudelocque, 80000, Amiens, France · Réseau sur le Stockage Electrochimique de l’Energie (RS2E), CNRS FR 3459, Hub de l’Energie, 15 Rue Baudelocque, 80000, Amiens, France · Predeeption (INRIA Startup Studio / CNRS Innovation), Hub de l’energie, 80000, Amiens, France +2

  56. Deep Gaussian Processes on Directed Acyclic Graphs

    Jul 10, 2026Federico L. Perlino, Oliver Hamelijnck, Adam M. Johansen +1Surrogate ModelingMultifidelity Modeling

    Department of Statistics, University of Warwick · 2AI Team, Unilink Software Ltd · Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick

  57. Entropy-Constrained Machine Learning with Residual Data Augmentation for Modeling Chemical Kinetics

    Jul 10, 2026Okezzi Ukorigho, Opeoluwa OwoyeleSurrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70810, USA

  58. CORL-AUV: CFD Oriented Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

    Jul 10, 2026Steven Roche, Milo Van Mooy, Nathan McGuire +3RL ControlRL for Robotics

    MIT-WHOI Joint Program, MA 02543, USA · WHOI, MA 02543, USA · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02319, USA

  59. A Machine Learning Surrogate for Component Criticality Ranking in Interdependent Power-Communication Networks

    Jul 9, 2026Sohini Roy, Xheni HylviuCyber-Physical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Computer Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas Las Vegas, USA

  60. Physics-Informed Machine Learning Under Small-Data Constraints: Lessons from Abrasive Waterjet Milling

    Jul 8, 2026Sarah Grewe, Jörg FrochteSurrogate ModelingResidual Learning

    Bochum University of Applied Sciences Germany