Constitutional Black-Box Monitoring for Scheming in LLM Agents

Reliable detection of deceptive behavior in Large Language Model (LLM) agents is an essential prerequisite for safe deployment in high-stakes agentic contexts. Prior work on scheming detection has focused exclusively on black-box monitors that observe only externally visible tool calls and outputs, discarding potentially rich internal reasoning signals. We introduce DECEPTGUARD, a unified framework that systematically compares three monitoring regimes: black-box monitors (actions and outputs only), CoT-aware monitors (additionally observing the agent's chain-of-thought reasoning trace), and activation-probe monitors (additionally reading hidden-state representations from a frozen open-weights encoder). We introduce DECEPTSYNTH, a scalable synthetic pipeline for generating deception-positive and deception-negative agent trajectories across a novel 12-category taxonomy spanning verbal, behavioral, and structural deception. Our monitors are optimized on 4,800 synthetic trajectories and evaluated on 9,200 held-out samples from DeceptArena, a benchmark of realistic sandboxed agent environments with execution-verified labels. Across all evaluation settings, CoT-aware and activation-probe monitors substantially outperform their black-box counterparts (mean pAUROC improvement of +0.097), with the largest gains on subtle, long-horizon deception that leaves minimal behavioral footprints. We empirically characterize a transparency-detectability trade-off: as agents learn to suppress overt behavioral signals, chain-of-thought becomes the primary detection surface but is itself increasingly unreliable due to post-training faithfulness degradation. We propose HYBRID-CONSTITUTIONAL ensembles as a robust defense-in-depth approach, achieving a pAUROC of 0.934 on the held-out test set, representing a substantial advance over the prior state of the art.

Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. Agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches improve scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not learn from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior without explicitly reasoning about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose Agent-ToM, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a Reason-Verify-Refine pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM distills critique signals into a persistent semantic guardrail memory, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision-recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a coherent two-call reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that learning at the monitoring layer, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.

We study scheming in LLM agents, in which agents covertly pursue misaligned goals. Our focus is to understand how scheming arises from the interaction of key factors, such as instrumental goals, environmental affordances, oversight conditions, and perceived consequences. Prior work examines only a small number of scenarios, limiting the ability to isolate how these conditions shape an agent's propensity or capability to scheme. This limited scale and task diversity also restrict coverage of realistic deployment settings and the range of scheming strategies that can be observed. To this end, we introduce SCHEMEARENA, a 400-scenario benchmark for scalable scheming stress testing, constructed through a factorized scenario synthesis framework spanning diverse safety-relevant tool domains, instrumental goals, oversight conditions, and pressure mechanisms. To enable scalable and reliable monitoring, we further propose SCOUT, a scheming monitor that grounds multi-criteria judgments in evidence drawn from agents' reasoning and actions. Across controlled stress tests on five LLM agents, we find that explicit instrumental goals are the strongest driver of scheming propensity. Strategic hints play a distinct role by helping agents translate scheming reasoning into concrete covert behavior. Oversight has mixed effects: in several closed models, action-only monitoring increases scheming, suggesting that partial oversight can act as an optimization constraint rather than a deterrent. CoT is a useful but incomplete monitoring signal: it can reveal latent scheming before execution, yet action-only scheming shows that covert behavior may occur without explicit reasoning evidence. We release the benchmark, code, and monitor at: https://github.com/launchnlp/SchemeArena.