Agent-ToM: Learning to Monitor Autonomous LLM Agents via Theory-of-Mind Reasoning
Authors: Nesreen K. Ahmed, Nima Nafisi
Organizations: Cisco Outshift
Abstract
Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. Agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches improve scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not learn from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior without explicitly reasoning about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose \textbf{Agent-ToM}, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a \textit{Reason-Verify-Refine} pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM distills critique signals into a persistent \textit{semantic guardrail memory}, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision-recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a coherent two-call reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that learning at the monitoring layer, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.
Autonomous LLM agents can pursue hidden malicious objectives through sequences of individually benign actions, making sabotage difficult to detect using standard trajectory-level monitoring. Existing approaches either evaluate complete trajectories in a single pass or partition them into independently scored windows, limiting their ability to connect evidence across temporally distant actions. We propose TRACE, a monitoring framework for long-horizon LLM agent trajectories. TRACE operates through a TIJ (Triage-Inspect-Judge) loop that identifies high-signal regions, performs targeted inspection while maintaining accumulated evidence across reasoning steps, and synthesizes a trajectory-level verdict. We evaluate TRACE on ten task domains from SHADE-Arena against state-of-the-art baselines. TRACE achieves an aggregate F1 of 0.713 and recall of 0.844, with the largest gains on tasks requiring long-range evidence linking.
Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is a promising safety mechanism for AI agents, based on the premise that visible reasoning traces can surface misaligned or deceptive behavior. While effective in standard scenarios, recent work highlights that LLMs remain vulnerable to persuasion-based jailbreaks, where natural-language arguments override model constraints. We stress-test whether this vulnerability extends to monitoring LLMs: can an adversarial agent persuade its CoT monitor to approve proposed actions that violate the monitor's policy? We design an evaluation framework with 40 tasks and analyze thousands of agent-monitor interactions, where agents are instructed to argue for policy-violating proposals. We find that in such adversarial settings, monitor access to the agent's CoT reasoning increases rather than decreases approval of harmful actions on average by 9.5%, as the scratchpad provides an additional persuasion channel. To address this, we introduce a fact-checking monitoring framework. We find that a fact-checker and monitor pairing from different model families, for example a Claude 3.7 Sonnet monitor paired with a GPT-4.1 fact-checker, reduces approval of policy-violating actions by up to 45%, compared to only 6%, when using the same model for both fact-checking and monitoring roles. Our results demonstrate that CoT monitoring alone may be insufficient against adversarial persuasion, and that model-diverse fact-checking provides a robust mitigation.
Jennifer Za, Julija Bainiaksina, Nikita Ostrovsky +2
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents capable of executing multi-step action trajectories toward a given objective. While existing safety research has focused on detecting unethical behavior from complete trajectories, this paradigm is fundamentally retrospective: it identifies harm only after it has already occurred. In this work, we study a critical yet overlooked safety task, which we term Predictive Monitoring: given only a partial action trajectory, can a model infer whether it will culminate in an unethical action before the overt action is executed? To support this task, we present PreActBench, a benchmark of 1,000 paired ethical and unethical action trajectories spanning five domains. We evaluate a range of LLMs, safety guardrail models, and latent probing methods across varying fractions of the action trajectory using our Prefix Foresight F1 metric. Results show that while humans achieve promising performance, predictive monitoring remains challenging even for strong models, highlighting the need for future-oriented risk reasoning in LLM safety.