stat.APMar 3, 2026

Detecting Structural Heart Disease from Electrocardiograms via a Generalized Additive Model of Interpretable Foundation-Model Predictors

Authors: Ya Zhou, Zhaohong Sun, Tianxiang Hao, Xiangjie Li

Organizations: Department of Information Center, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China · The Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China · National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, 100037, China

Abstract

Structural heart disease (SHD) is a prevalent condition with many undiagnosed cases, and early detection is often limited by the high cost and accessibility constraints of echocardiography (ECHO). Recent studies show that artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of electrocardiograms (ECGs) can detect SHD, offering a scalable alternative. However, existing methods are fully black-box models, limiting interpretability and clinical adoption. To address these challenges, we propose an interpretable and effective framework that integrates clinically meaningful ECG foundation-model predictors within a generalized additive model, enabling transparent risk attribution while maintaining strong predictive performance. Using the EchoNext benchmark of over 80,000 ECG-ECHO pairs, the method demonstrates relative improvements of +0.98% in AUROC, +1.01% in AUPRC, and +1.41% in F1 score over the latest state-of-the-art deep-learning baseline, while achieving slightly better performance even with only 30% of the training data. Subgroup analyses confirm robust performance across heterogeneous populations, and the estimated entry-wise functions provide interpretable insights into the relationships between risks of traditional ECG diagnoses and SHD. This work illustrates a complementary paradigm between classical statistical modeling and modern AI, offering a pathway to interpretable, high-performing, and clinically actionable ECG-based SHD screening.

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