Copula-ResLogit: A Deep-Copula Framework for Unobserved Confounding Effects

Long-term traffic modelling is fundamental to transport planning, but existing approaches often trade off interpretability, transferability, and predictive accuracy. Classical travel demand models provide behavioural structure but rely on strong assumptions and extensive calibration, whereas generic deep learning models capture complex patterns but often lack theoretical grounding and spatial transferability, limiting their usefulness for long-term planning applications. We propose DeepDemand, a theory-informed deep learning framework that embeds key components of travel demand theory to predict long-term highway traffic volumes using external socioeconomic features and road-network structure. The framework integrates a competitive two-source Dijkstra procedure for local origin-destination (OD) region extraction and OD pair screening with a differentiable architecture modelling OD interactions and travel-time deterrence. The model is evaluated using eight years (2017-2024) of observations on the UK strategic road network, covering 5088 highway segments. Under random cross-validation, DeepDemand achieves an R2 of 0.718 and an MAE of 7406 vehicles, outperforming linear, ridge, random forest, and gravity-style baselines. Performance remains strong under spatial cross-validation (R2 = 0.665), indicating good geographic transferability. Interpretability analysis reveals a stable nonlinear travel-time deterrence pattern, key socioeconomic drivers of demand, and polycentric OD interaction structures aligned with major employment centres and transport hubs. These results highlight the value of integrating transport theory with deep learning for interpretable highway traffic modelling and practical planning applications.

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations. CHAUN employs shared feature embeddings and cross-head attention mechanisms to dynamically integrate treatment-specific and control-specific representations, enhancing inter-group correlation modeling. Theoretically, we prove that access to the true propensity scores ensures ITE identifiability even with unobserved confounders. For practical scenarios lacking true propensity scores, RA-IPS adversarially optimizes propensity weights within constrained uncertainty sets to mitigate bias from unobserved variables. Experiments on public datasets (CRITEO-UPLIFT, LAZADA) and a production e-commerce dataset demonstrate CHAUN's superiority over state-of-the-art uplift models, achieving relative improvements of up to 25.6% in QINI scores. RA-IPS further enhances robustness, outperforming standard IPS by 5.4% under unobserved confounding. The results validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in real-world causal inference tasks.