Experimental evidence of progressive ChatGPT models self-convergence

How fast does a language model degrade when trained on its own outputs? Theory traces it to gradually accumulating errors, while experiments report repeated phrases within ten generations. Under a fixed sampling seed in vLLM, the fast loss of lexical diversity comes from the sampler. When vLLM serves a batch from one seeded sampling configuration, every request receives the same random draws, and a fixed seed replays them every generation. Fine-tuning raises the tokens that won, and the replayed draws let them win by more. Sharing across requests and replay across generations matter only together. Remove either one, by changing the shared seed every generation or by giving each request its own seed that repeats every generation, and the unique-4-gram fraction of two StableLM checkpoints stays near its starting value of about 0.98 through generation 3. Keep both, and the replayed shared seed takes seven checkpoints from five families to between 0.045 and 0.38 by then. Three generations of replay write the favoured phrases into the weights: decoded with one seed per request, the generation-3 weights of the replayed StableLM-2-1.6B chain recover most of their diversity, yet the phrase that filled every sample under the shared seed still opens 46% of them. Without replay, five checkpoints drift slowly, consistent with the gradual accumulation that theory describes, and three turn incoherent though their diversity scores stay high. One peer-reviewed model-collapse pipeline that fine-tunes Gemma-2-27B samples identical prompts under one seeded configuration, and three quarters of the rows it released for one iteration repeat nearly as often as one such batch copies them. A seed per request restores the fresh sample that stability analyses assume.

As AI-generated content increasingly populates the web, generative AI models are at growing risk of being trained on their own outputs, a process known as AI autophagy. This feedback loop has been shown to induce model collapse, typically characterized by a loss of diversity in generated content. However, existing work offers a limited understanding of this phenomenon and relies on mitigation strategies that assume access to human-authored data. In this paper, we conduct extensive simulations across multiple datasets and LLMs to address key gaps in the study of model collapse. First, we introduce model-intrinsic measures based on next-token probability distributions, showing that model collapse corresponds to an increasing concentration of probability mass on a small set of tokens. Second, we demonstrate that model collapse is also associated with a loss of common sense, as measured by a decline in commonsense inference accuracy. Third, we identify perplexity (a measure of model "surprise") as a key driver of collapse: fine-tuning on the least "surprising" documents leads to more severe degeneration. Building on this insight, we propose a perplexity-based filtering strategy that prioritizes high-surprise documents during fine-tuning. Unlike existing approaches, our method does not require distinguishing between human-authored and AI-generated content. Across datasets and LLM families, this strategy consistently mitigates model collapse, achieving performance comparable to, and in some cases better than, human-data baselines, while substantially reducing the concentration of next-token probabilities. Overall, our results provide a unified, model-centric understanding of model collapse and suggest practical, scalable strategies for training generative AI systems in increasingly synthetic environments.

As scaling laws push the training of frontier large language models (LLMs) toward ever-growing data requirements, training pipelines are approaching a regime where much of the publicly available online text may be consumed. At the same time, widespread LLM usage increases the volume of machine-generated content on the web; together, these trends raise the likelihood of generated text re-entering future training corpora, increasing the associated risk of performance degradation often called model collapse. In practice, model developers address this concern through data cleaning, watermarking, synthetic-data policies, or, in some cases, blissful ignorance. However, the problem of model collapse in generative models has not been examined from a learning-theoretic perspective: we study it through the theoretical lens of the language generation in the limit framework, introducing a replay adversary that augments the example stream with the generator's own past outputs. Our main contribution is a fine-grained learning-theoretic characterization of when replay fundamentally limits generation: while replay is benign for the strongest notion of uniform generation, it provably creates separations for the weaker notions of non-uniform generation and generation in the limit. Interestingly, our positive results mirror heuristics widely used in practice, such as data cleaning, watermarking, and output filtering, while our separations show when these ideas can fail.