GeoChemAD: Benchmarking Unsupervised Geochemical Anomaly Detection for Mineral Exploration

Critical mineral discovery is a positive-only problem: deposits are observed as sparse locations, while unlabeled regions are not reliable negatives, and similar geophysical signatures can arise from different subsurface states. We therefore model mineral targeting as learning a conditional spatial distribution over occurrence locations, $π(p\mid d)$, given geo-images $d$, rather than predicting a deterministic per-pixel score map. We introduce GeoCFM, a conditional flow-matching model that generates mineral occurrence point sets conditioned on multi-channel geo-images; GeoCFM learns a point-wise transport field in $\mathbb{R}^2$, using UNet features with point-conditioned velocity prediction to bridge dense rasters and sparse supervision without pseudo-negatives. On a synthetic magnetics--geochemistry benchmark with latent activation and on USGS Earth MRI data with a spatially disjoint tile split, GeoCFM improves geometric agreement with observed occurrences over score-map and non-conditional baselines, while representing epistemic uncertainty through conditional sampling.

Mineral prospectivity mapping requires synthesizing heterogeneous geological knowledge, including textual deposit models and geospatial datasets, to identify regions likely to host specific mineral deposit types. This process is traditionally manual and knowledge-intensive. We present QueryPlot, a semantic retrieval and mapping framework that integrates large-scale geological text corpora with geologic map data using modern Natural Language Processing techniques. We curate descriptive deposit models for over 120 deposit types and transform the State Geologic Map Compilation (SGMC) polygons into structured textual representations. Given a user-defined natural language query, the system encodes both queries and region descriptions using a pretrained embedding model and computes semantic similarity scores to rank and spatially visualize regions as continuous evidence layers. QueryPlot supports compositional querying over deposit characteristics, enabling aggregation of multiple similarity-derived layers for multi-criteria prospectivity analysis. In a case study on tungsten skarn deposits, we demonstrate that embedding-based retrieval achieves high recall of known occurrences and produces prospective regions that closely align with expert-defined permissive tracts. Furthermore, similarity scores can be incorporated as additional features in supervised learning pipelines, yielding measurable improvements in classification performance. QueryPlot is implemented as a web-based system supporting interactive querying, visualization, and export of GIS-compatible prospectivity layers.To support future research, we have made the source code and datasets used in this study publicly available.

Anomaly detection systems are often trained using normal data alone, while model selection and evaluation typically require labeled anomalies. We study whether anomaly detection performance can be predicted without access to anomalous data. For kNN-based detectors, we derive a lower bound on the area under the ROC curve (AUC) that relates detection performance to the separation between inlier and outlier scores and to their respective variances. Under a local scaling model, we use this bound to characterize how density variation, intrinsic-dimensional heterogeneity, and cross-domain mismatch contribute to score variability. We then investigate anomaly-free model selection and show that inlier score variance alone does not reliably predict performance across different representations. To address this limitation, we introduce simple pseudo-anomaly probes that provide a reference for estimating relative score separation. Experiments on the DCASE 2022-2025 benchmarks, spanning four embedding models and 208 candidate systems, show that pseudo-anomaly-based estimators substantially improve anomaly-free model selection. In particular, diverse pseudo-anomalies enable anomaly-free model selection to outperform conventional development-set selection under domain shift. These results show that embedding-space geometry contains predictive information about anomaly detection performance while also highlighting the representation-dependent nature of inlier-only performance estimates.