The ARC of Progress towards AGI: A Living Survey of Abstraction and Reasoning

Recent progress on ARC-AGI-1 from disclosed architectures has come broadly from two regimes: heavy test-time compute over frontier models (evolutionary search, exhaustive sampling, extended chain-of-thought), or benchmark-specific training in which small models are fine-tuned on ARC data, often with task-specialized architectures. We study a third regime: an open-weight model in non-thinking mode (DeepSeek V3.2) under a strict budget, with no ARC-specific fine-tuning. We study what is recoverable through architecture alone, building agentic harnesses that decompose pattern-discovery and program-synthesis stages explicitly. First, we introduce an Explorer-Definer Pipeline that separates pattern discovery from executable transformation synthesis, implemented as a two-stage agent pipeline. Next, we present the Reflective Orchestrator, which augments the pipeline with autonomous exploration of new transformations when previous hypotheses fail on training pairs. On the ARC-AGI-1 public 400-task evaluation set, the pipeline reaches 57.50% pass@2 at $0.25 per task, and the orchestrator reaches 67.25% pass@2 at $0.62 per task. Together these architectures lift a 15.50% one-shot baseline by ~52 points without benchmark-specific training or heavy test-time compute. Furthermore, the orchestrator-driven lift tests a falsifiable diagnostic the pipeline produces; unbiased pass@k analysis suggests the pipeline is generation-bound, not selection-bound (selection via training-pair accuracy captures ~95% of the candidate ceiling) and predicts that significant improvement requires broader generation, not better ranking. The orchestrator implements this prediction via adaptive re-exploration and confirms it (unbiased pass@1 lift +9.81 pp, matching selection-mediated pass@2 lift). An additional pipeline ablation identifies its think tool as a significant component, with removal reducing pass@2 by 5.75 pp.

AI reasoning models have exceeded human performance on the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark, but does that mean state-of-the-art models have the underlying competence (humanlike abstract reasoning) that the benchmark was designed to test? Here we investigate the abstraction abilities of AI models using the closely related but simpler ConceptARC benchmark. Our evaluations vary input modality (textual vs. visual), use of external Python tools, and reasoning effort. Beyond output accuracy, we evaluate the natural-language rules that models generate to explain their solutions, enabling us to assess whether models recognize the abstractions that ConceptARC was designed to elicit. We show that the best models' rules are frequently based on less abstract, more domain-specific concepts, capturing intended abstractions considerably less often than humans. In the visual modality, AI models' output accuracy drops sharply; however, our rule-level analysis reveals that a substantial share of their rules capture intended abstractions, even as the models struggle to apply these concepts to generate correct solutions. In short, we show that using performance (accuracy) alone can substantially overestimate AI competence in textual modalities while underestimating it in visual modalities, an illustration of the risk of mistaking performance for competence.

The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) has become a prominent benchmark for evaluating general abstract reasoning and fluid intelligence in AI models. Yet standard ARC evaluation considers only a single capability: producing the correct output grid for a test input. We argue that this narrow format fails to evaluate the diversity of abilities that genuine abstract skill acquisition should enable. We introduce PotARCin, a benchmark that extends ARC by assessing understanding of a task's underlying abstract rule across five dimensions: Definition, Classification, Constrained Generation, Editing, and Inversion. PotARCin employs programmatic methods to generate new task instances and transform given inputs for a given ARC task, enabling dynamic generative sampling beyond fixed input-output pairs. Across five state-of-the-art models evaluated on the ARC-AGI-1 training set, we observe a 25-52 percentage-point performance gap between standard ARC evaluation and evaluation on PotARCin, and find that multi-dimensional evaluation reorders models that standard accuracy ranks alike. We further investigate effects of generative sampling, difficulty of corruption types, and questions of self-consistency, showing that models frequently contradict their own formalized rule even where they have stated it correctly. We also introduce P-ARC, a held-out hand-crafted test set, on which models achieve 1-8% accuracy across all five dimensions, underscoring the importance of more holistic evaluations of abstract reasoning capabilities.