MR-GNF: Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting on Ellipsoidal Meshes for Efficient Regional Weather Prediction

State-of-the-art AI weather models have shown impressive medium-range forecast skill and computational efficiency, but suffer two key shortcomings: their forecasts have lower spatial and temporal resolution than the best physics-based models and they are exclusively initialized with and trained on analysis data. As a result, they cannot directly make use of observations, and any biases in the analysis are inherited by the forecast. WeatherNext 3 addresses these shortcomings and establishes a new state-of-the-art for probabilistic medium-range forecasting skill. First, WeatherNext 3 generates new forecasts every hour (rather than every 6 hours like traditional global models) by ingesting low-latency geostationary satellite data. Second, WeatherNext 3's temporal and spatial resolution are on par with physics-based global models, with hourly time steps and 0.1 degree resolution for single-level variables, including solar radiation and cloud cover. Third, WeatherNext 3 moves beyond traditional analysis variables by learning to predict satellite-derived precipitation estimates, as well as tropical cyclone and station observations. Modelling sparse station data allows WeatherNext 3 to make 2m temperature and dewpoint predictions at any location and time, conditioned on local geographical features, with substantially lower error than competing global models, even when evaluated against unseen stations. Together, WeatherNext 3's capabilities move operational AI-based weather forecasting beyond emulating the traditionally distinct stages of data assimilation, forecasting and post-processing, which helps to further push the frontier of performance and granularity for global weather prediction.

Global AI weather forecasting still relies mainly on uniform-resolution models, making it hard to combine regional refinement, two-way regional-global coupling, and affordable training cost. We introduce StretchCast, a global-regional AI forecasting framework built on a variable-resolution stretched cubed-sphere (SCS) mesh that preserves a closed global domain while concentrating resolution over a target region. Within this framework, we develop a one-step predictor, SCS_Base Model, and a rollout-oriented multistep predictor, SCS_FCST4 Model, to test the feasibility of SCS-based forecasting and the benefit of joint multistep training. Experiments use ERA5 with 69 variables over 1998-2022. Because training compute remains limited, this study uses a coarse-resolution proof-of-concept configuration rather than a final high-resolution system. Even with only about 7,776 effective global grid cells and roughly 0.875 degree resolution over the center-refined face, the 23M-parameter SCS_Base Model yields stable multivariate forecasts. With 83M parameters and training cost on the order of hours, SCS_FCST4 Model delivers competitive medium-range anomaly-correlation evolution over the target region after unified reprojection, especially for geopotential height, specific humidity, and part of the lower-tropospheric winds, while maintaining smooth cross-face continuity and realistic multiscale structure in typhoon and spectral analyses. These results support StretchCast as a practical lightweight foundation for global-regional AI weather forecasting.

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction is approaching the skill of physical numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at a fraction of the computational cost. This is particularly promising for Africa, where rainfall extremes are intensifying and many forecasting centres lack the infrastructure to run physical models at extended lead times. We present a calibrated comparison of GraphCast, GenCast and the Functional Generative Network (FGN) against the physical NWP model IFS for rainfall prediction across Africa. Deterministic and probabilistic forecasts are postprocessed using Isotonic Distributional Regression and evaluated with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score against IMERG, RFEv2 and CHIRPS across seasons, wet and dry regimes, elevation zones and lead times. All models retain skill beyond climatology across most seasons and at extended lead times. AI models generally outperform IFS in wet regions, whereas IFS performs better in dry, high-elevation areas, where its finer resolution better represents orographic controls on rainfall. Across observational datasets and seasons, AI models achieve a median improvement of approximately 5% over IFS. GraphCast achieves calibrated skill comparable to the ensemble-based FGN, although FGN provides greater significant skill at longer lead times. These results highlight the potential of calibrated AI weather prediction to provide accessible and computationally efficient rainfall forecasts across Africa, while demonstrating the continuing importance of spatial resolution, ensemble design and regional characteristics.